Claire Newbern

Bio: Claire Newbern is an academic researcher from Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The author has contributed to research in topics: Medicine & Interleukin 3. The author has an hindex of 6, co-authored 8 publications receiving 1398 citations.

It’s Not the Heat, It’s the Humidity: Wet Weather Increases Legionellosis Risk in the Greater Philadelphia Metropolitan Area

Abstract: Background Legionella species are abundant in the environment and are increasingly recognized as a cause of severe pneumonia. Increases in cases of community-acquired legionellosis in the greater Philadelphia metropolitan area (GPMA) led to concern that changing environmental factors could influence occurrence of disease. Methods We evaluated the association between weather patterns and occurrence of legionellosis in the GPMA, using both traditional Poisson regression analysis and a case-crossover study approach. The latter approach controls for seasonal factors that could confound the relationship between weather and occurrence of disease and permits the identification of acute weather patterns associated with disease. Results A total of 240 cases of legionellosis were reported between 1995 and 2003. Cases occurred with striking summertime seasonality. Occurrence of cases was associated with monthly average temperature (incidence rate ratio [IRR] per degree Celsius, 1.07 [95% confidence interval [CI], 1.05-1.09]) and relative humidity (IRR per 1% increase in relative humidity, 1.09 [95% CI, 1.06-1.12]) by Poisson regression analysis. However, case-crossover analysis identified an acute association with precipitation (odds ratio [OR], 2.48 [95% CI, 1.30-3.12]) and increased humidity (OR per 1% increase in relative humidity, 1.08 [95% CI, 1.05-1.11]) 6-10 days before occurrence of cases. A significant dose-response relationship for occurrence of cases was seen with both precipitation and increased humidity. Conclusions Although, in the GPMA, legionellosis occurred predominantly during summertime, the acute occurrence of disease is best predicted by wet, humid weather. This finding is consistent with the current understanding of the ecological profile of this pathogen and supports the contention that sporadic legionellosis occurs through contamination of water sources.

Lack of SARS Transmission among Healthcare Workers, United States

Abstract: Healthcare workers accounted for a large proportion of persons with severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) during the worldwide epidemic of early 2003. We conducted an investigation of healthcare workers exposed to laboratory-confirmed SARS patients in the United States to evaluate infection-control practices and possible SARS-associated coronavirus (SARS-CoV) transmission. We identified 110 healthcare workers with exposure within droplet range (i.e., 3 feet) to six SARS-CoV-positive patients. Forty-five healthcare workers had exposure without any mask use, 72 had exposure without eye protection, and 40 reported direct skin-to-skin contact. Potential droplet- and aerosol-generating procedures were infrequent: 5% of healthcare workers manipulated a patient's airway, and 4% administered aerosolized medication. Despite numerous unprotected exposures, there was no serologic evidence of healthcare-related SARS-CoV transmission. Lack of transmission in the United States may be related to the relative absence of high-risk procedures or patients, factors that may place healthcare workers at higher risk for infection.

Severe Influenza Is Characterized by Prolonged Immune Activation: Results From the SHIVERS Cohort Study.

Abstract: Background. The immunologic factors underlying severe influenza are poorly understood. To address this, we compared the immune responses of influenza-confirmed hospitalized individuals with severe acute respiratory illness (SARI) to those of nonhospitalized individuals with influenza-like illness (ILI).Methods. Peripheral blood lymphocytes were collected from 27 patients with ILI and 27 with SARI, at time of enrollment and then 2 weeks later. Innate and adaptive cellular immune responses were assessed by flow cytometry, and serum cytokine levels were assessed by a bead-based assay. Results. During the acute phase, SARI was associated with significantly reduced numbers of circulating myeloid dendritic cells, CD192+ monocytes, and influenza virus–specific CD8+ and CD4+ T cells as compared to ILI. By the convalescent phase, however, most SARI cases displayed continued immune activation characterized by increased numbers of CD16+ monocytes and proliferating, and influenza virus–specific, CD8+ T cells as compared to ILI cases. SARI was also associated with reduced amounts of cytokines that regulate T-cell responses (ie, interleukin 4, interleukin 13, interleukin 12, interleukin 10, and tumor necrosis factor β) and hematopoiesis (interleukin 3 and granulocyte-macrophage colony-stimulating factor) but increased amounts of a proinflammatory cytokine (tumor necrosis factor α), chemotactic cytokines (MDC, MCP-1, GRO, and fractalkine), and growth-promoting cytokines (PDGFBB/AA, VEGF, and EGF) as compared to ILI.Conclusions. Severe influenza cases showed a delay in the peripheral immune activation that likely led prolonged inflammation, compared with mild influenza cases.

Superspreading and the effect of individual variation on disease emergence

Abstract: Population-level analyses often use average quantities to describe heterogeneous systems, particularly when variation does not arise from identifiable groups. A prominent example, central to our current understanding of epidemic spread, is the basic reproductive number, R(0), which is defined as the mean number of infections caused by an infected individual in a susceptible population. Population estimates of R(0) can obscure considerable individual variation in infectiousness, as highlighted during the global emergence of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) by numerous 'superspreading events' in which certain individuals infected unusually large numbers of secondary cases. For diseases transmitted by non-sexual direct contacts, such as SARS or smallpox, individual variation is difficult to measure empirically, and thus its importance for outbreak dynamics has been unclear. Here we present an integrated theoretical and statistical analysis of the influence of individual variation in infectiousness on disease emergence. Using contact tracing data from eight directly transmitted diseases, we show that the distribution of individual infectiousness around R(0) is often highly skewed. Model predictions accounting for this variation differ sharply from average-based approaches, with disease extinction more likely and outbreaks rarer but more explosive. Using these models, we explore implications for outbreak control, showing that individual-specific control measures outperform population-wide measures. Moreover, the dramatic improvements achieved through targeted control policies emphasize the need to identify predictive correlates of higher infectiousness. Our findings indicate that superspreading is a normal feature of disease spread, and to frame ongoing discussion we propose a rigorous definition for superspreading events and a method to predict their frequency.

Estimates of the global, regional, and national morbidity, mortality, and aetiologies of lower respiratory infections in 195 countries, 1990-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

Abstract: Summary Background Lower respiratory infections are a leading cause of morbidity and mortality around the world The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) Study 2016, provides an up-to-date analysis of the burden of lower respiratory infections in 195 countries This study assesses cases, deaths, and aetiologies spanning the past 26 years and shows how the burden of lower respiratory infection has changed in people of all ages Methods We used three separate modelling strategies for lower respiratory infections in GBD 2016: a Bayesian hierarchical ensemble modelling platform (Cause of Death Ensemble model), which uses vital registration, verbal autopsy data, and surveillance system data to predict mortality due to lower respiratory infections; a compartmental meta-regression tool (DisMod-MR), which uses scientific literature, population representative surveys, and health-care data to predict incidence, prevalence, and mortality; and modelling of counterfactual estimates of the population attributable fraction of lower respiratory infection episodes due to Streptococcus pneumoniae, Haemophilus influenzae type b, influenza, and respiratory syncytial virus We calculated each modelled estimate for each age, sex, year, and location We modelled the exposure level in a population for a given risk factor using DisMod-MR and a spatio-temporal Gaussian process regression, and assessed the effectiveness of targeted interventions for each risk factor in children younger than 5 years We also did a decomposition analysis of the change in LRI deaths from 2000–16 using the risk factors associated with LRI in GBD 2016 Findings In 2016, lower respiratory infections caused 652 572 deaths (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 586 475–720 612) in children younger than 5 years (under-5s), 1 080 958 deaths (943 749–1 170 638) in adults older than 70 years, and 2 377 697 deaths (2 145 584–2 512 809) in people of all ages, worldwide Streptococcus pneumoniae was the leading cause of lower respiratory infection morbidity and mortality globally, contributing to more deaths than all other aetiologies combined in 2016 (1 189 937 deaths, 95% UI 690 445–1 770 660) Childhood wasting remains the leading risk factor for lower respiratory infection mortality among children younger than 5 years, responsible for 61·4% of lower respiratory infection deaths in 2016 (95% UI 45·7–69·6) Interventions to improve wasting, household air pollution, ambient particulate matter pollution, and expanded antibiotic use could avert one under-5 death due to lower respiratory infection for every 4000 children treated in the countries with the highest lower respiratory infection burden Interpretation Our findings show substantial progress in the reduction of lower respiratory infection burden, but this progress has not been equal across locations, has been driven by decreases in several primary risk factors, and might require more effort among elderly adults By highlighting regions and populations with the highest burden, and the risk factors that could have the greatest effect, funders, policy makers, and programme implementers can more effectively reduce lower respiratory infections among the world's most susceptible populations Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation