Author
Colin A. Carter
Other affiliations: University of California, University of Georgia, Agricultural & Applied Economics Association ...read more
Bio: Colin A. Carter is an academic researcher from University of California, Davis. The author has contributed to research in topics: Trade barrier & Free trade. The author has an hindex of 37, co-authored 220 publications receiving 4175 citations. Previous affiliations of Colin A. Carter include University of California & University of Georgia.
Papers published on a yearly basis
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TL;DR: This paper argued that the futures market is "normally" inefficient since the futures price is not an unbiased estimate of the subsequent spot price, and argued that hedgers use futures markets to avoid risks and that they pay a significant premium to the speculator for this insurance.
Abstract: Keynes (1930), with his theory of' normal backwardation, emphasized the financial risk posed by the necessity for carrying inventories of' agricultural products, and he suggested that futures markets exist to facilitate hedging. ' In his view, futures prices are unreliable estimates of the cash or spot price prevailing on the date of expiry of the futures contract. He believed it "normal" for the futures price to be a downward-biased estimate of the forthcoming spot price. This theory, in effect, argues that speculators sell "insurance" to hedgers and that the market is "normally" inefficient since the futures price is not an unbiased estimate of the subsequent spot price.2 Keynes argued that hedgers use futures markets to avoid risks and that they pay, on the average, a significant premium to the speculator for this insurance. The long (short) speculator realizes the premium by refusing to purchase a contract from the short (long) hedger except at the price below (above) that which the futures price is expected to approach. Telser (1958, 1960) and Cootner (1960) have both tested
251 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors test the Armington assumptions of homotheticity and separability with data from the international cotton and wheat markets and show that the empirical results reject the assumptions.
Abstract: The Armington trade model distinguishes commodities by country of origin, and import demand is determined in a separable two-step procedure. This framework has been applied to numerous international agricultural markets with the objective of modeling import demand. In addition, computable general equilibrium (CGE) models commonly employ the Armington formulation in the trade linkage equations. The purpose of this paper is to test the Armington assumptions of homotheticity and separability with data from the international cotton and wheat markets. Both parametric and nonparametric tests were performed, and the empirical results reject the Armington assumptions. This has important implications for international trade modeling and CGE modeling.
198 citations
TL;DR: The authors found that at the core of these cycles a set of contemporaneous supply and demand surprises that coincided with low inventories and that were magnified by macroeconomic shocks and policy responses.
Abstract: Periodically, the global economy experiences great commodity booms and busts, characterized by a broad and sharp comovement of commodity prices. There have been two such episodes since the Korean War. The first event peaked in 1974 and the second in 2008, 34 years apart. Both created major economic and political shocks, including fallen governments and human suffering due to high food prices. Each occurrence raised serious concerns over food and energy security and led to more government intervention in the commodity markets. Although there is no simple explanation for what causes such complex events, they do share similar characteristics. We find at the core of these cycles a set of contemporaneous supply and demand surprises that coincided with low inventories and that were magnified by macroeconomic shocks and policy responses. In the next few decades, the world faces the prospect of continued increases in the demand for commodities and greater uncertainty about supply. However, because market particip...
138 citations
TL;DR: The main contributions in the literature on commodity futures markets have focused primarily on technical questions, with insufficient economic content as mentioned in this paper, arguing that more research needs to be directed towards understanding fundamental economic issues such as why so few farmers hedge, the impacts of government farm programs, and the market impacts of commodity pools.
Abstract: This review article describes the main contributions in the literature on commodity futures markets. It is argued that modern studies have focused primarily on technical questions, with insufficient economic content. More research needs to be directed towards understanding fundamental economic issues such as why so few farmers hedge, the impacts of government farm programs on commodity futures, and the market impacts of commodity pools. The literature has failed to explain the prevalence of inverted markets in grains and oilseeds, and there is unexplainable price volatility in markets such as hogs and orange juice.
111 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors used disaggregate county-level production data to study the effects of economic reform on China's grain production between 1980 and 1990, and found that the institutional impact of reform was found to explain about 38% of the production growth from 1980 to 1985.
Abstract: We use disaggregate county-level production data to study the effects of economic reform on China's grain production between 1980 and 1990. China's grain production area is divided into five regions based on geographic, agronomic, and meteorological criteria. Regional grain production functions are estimated, and weather is explicitly modeled. The institutional impact of economic reform was found to explain about 38% of the production growth from 1980 to 1985. This is lower than the estimates reported in many previous studies. Regional differences in efficiency gains from economic reform and in the effects of weather on grain production are found to be significant.
92 citations
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2,716 citations
TL;DR: The nonlinear parameters are shown to be implicit in the observed land allocation decisions at a regional or farm level and satisfy the Hicksian conditions for competitive firms.
Abstract: A method for calibrating models of agricultural production and resource use using nonlinear yield or cost functions is developed. The nonlinear parameters are shown to be implicit in the observed land allocation decisions at a regional or farm level. The method is implemented in three stages and initiated by a constrained linear program. The procedure automatically calibrates the model in terms of output, input use, objective function values and dual values on model constraints. The resulting nonlinear models show smooth responses to parameterization and satisfy the Hicksian conditions for competitive firms.
1,005 citations
01 Jan 2016
TL;DR: Perhaps you have knowledge that, people have look hundreds of times for their chosen books like this likelihood based inference in cointegrated vector autoregressive models, but end up in harmful downloads.
Abstract: Thank you very much for downloading likelihood based inference in cointegrated vector autoregressive models. Maybe you have knowledge that, people have look hundreds times for their chosen books like this likelihood based inference in cointegrated vector autoregressive models, but end up in harmful downloads. Rather than reading a good book with a cup of coffee in the afternoon, instead they cope with some malicious bugs inside their desktop computer.
735 citations
TL;DR: The Rural South is becoming increasingly divorced from farming and, therefore, from the land Patterns and associations of wealth and poverty have become more diffuse and diverse as non-farm opportunities have expanded and heightened levels of mobility have led to the delocalization of livelihoods as mentioned in this paper.
732 citations
TL;DR: This work investigated how crop pollination services provided by native, unmanaged, bee communities varied on organic and conventional farms situated along a gradient of isolation from natural habitat, allowing prediction of the area needed to produce a given level of pollination Services by wild bees within this landscape.
Abstract: Managing ecosystem services is critical to human survival, yet we do not know how large natural areas must be to support these services. We investigated how crop pollination services provided by native, unmanaged, bee communities varied on organic and conventional farms situated along a gradient of isolation from natural habitat. Pollination services from native bees were significantly, positively related to the proportion of upland natural habitat in the vicinity of farm sites, but not to any other factor studied, including farm type, insecticide usage, field size and honeybee abundance. The scale of this relationship matched bee foraging ranges. Stability and predictability of pollination services also increased with increasing natural habitat area. This strong relationship between natural habitat area and pollination services was robust over space and time, allowing prediction of the area needed to produce a given level of pollination services by wild bees within this landscape.
718 citations