Showing papers by "Cyrus Cooper published in 2016"

A century of trends in adult human height

Abstract: Being taller is associated with enhanced longevity, and higher education and earnings. We reanalysed 1472 population-based studies, with measurement of height on more than 18.6 million participants to estimate mean height for people born between 1896 and 1996 in 200 countries. The largest gain in adult height over the past century has occurred in South Korean women and Iranian men, who became 20.2 cm (95% credible interval 17.5–22.7) and 16.5 cm (13.3–19.7) taller, respectively. In contrast, there was little change in adult height in some sub-Saharan African countries and in South Asia over the century of analysis. The tallest people over these 100 years are men born in the Netherlands in the last quarter of 20th century, whose average heights surpassed 182.5 cm, and the shortest were women born in Guatemala in 1896 (140.3 cm; 135.8–144.8). The height differential between the tallest and shortest populations was 19-20 cm a century ago, and has remained the same for women and increased for men a century later despite substantial changes in the ranking of countries.

Global and national burden of diseases and injuries among children and adolescents between 1990 and 2013: findings from the global burden of disease 2013 study.

Abstract: Importance The literature focuses on mortality among children younger than 5 years. Comparable information on nonfatal health outcomes among these children and the fatal and nonfatal burden of diseases and injuries among older children and adolescents is scarce. Objective To determine levels and trends in the fatal and nonfatal burden of diseases and injuries among younger children (aged Evidence Review Data from vital registration, verbal autopsy studies, maternal and child death surveillance, and other sources covering 14 244 site-years (ie, years of cause of death data by geography) from 1980 through 2013 were used to estimate cause-specific mortality. Data from 35 620 epidemiological sources were used to estimate the prevalence of the diseases and sequelae in the GBD 2013 study. Cause-specific mortality for most causes was estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble Model strategy. For some infectious diseases (eg, HIV infection/AIDS, measles, hepatitis B) where the disease process is complex or the cause of death data were insufficient or unavailable, we used natural history models. For most nonfatal health outcomes, DisMod-MR 2.0, a Bayesian metaregression tool, was used to meta-analyze the epidemiological data to generate prevalence estimates. Findings Of the 7.7 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 7.4-8.1) million deaths among children and adolescents globally in 2013, 6.28 million occurred among younger children, 0.48 million among older children, and 0.97 million among adolescents. In 2013, the leading causes of death were lower respiratory tract infections among younger children (905 059 deaths; 95% UI, 810 304-998 125), diarrheal diseases among older children (38 325 deaths; 95% UI, 30 365-47 678), and road injuries among adolescents (115 186 deaths; 95% UI, 105 185-124 870). Iron deficiency anemia was the leading cause of years lived with disability among children and adolescents, affecting 619 (95% UI, 618-621) million in 2013. Large between-country variations exist in mortality from leading causes among children and adolescents. Countries with rapid declines in all-cause mortality between 1990 and 2013 also experienced large declines in most leading causes of death, whereas countries with the slowest declines had stagnant or increasing trends in the leading causes of death. In 2013, Nigeria had a 12% global share of deaths from lower respiratory tract infections and a 38% global share of deaths from malaria. India had 33% of the world’s deaths from neonatal encephalopathy. Half of the world’s diarrheal deaths among children and adolescents occurred in just 5 countries: India, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Pakistan, Nigeria, and Ethiopia. Conclusions and Relevance Understanding the levels and trends of the leading causes of death and disability among children and adolescents is critical to guide investment and inform policies. Monitoring these trends over time is also key to understanding where interventions are having an impact. Proven interventions exist to prevent or treat the leading causes of unnecessary death and disability among children and adolescents. The findings presented here show that these are underused and give guidance to policy makers in countries where more attention is needed.

Sarcopenia in daily practice: Assessment and management

Abstract: Sarcopenia is increasingly recognized as a correlate of ageing and is associated with increased likelihood of adverse outcomes including falls, fractures, frailty and mortality. Several tools have been recommended to assess muscle mass, muscle strength and physical performance in clinical trials. Whilst these tools have proven to be accurate and reliable in investigational settings, many are not easily applied to daily practice. This paper is based on literature reviews performed by members of the European Society for Clinical and Economic Aspects of Osteoporosis and Osteoarthritis (ESCEO) working group on frailty and sarcopenia. Face-to-face meetings were afterwards organized for the whole group to make amendments and discuss further recommendations. This paper proposes some user-friendly and inexpensive methods that can be used to assess sarcopenia in real-life settings. Healthcare providers, particularly in primary care, should consider an assessment of sarcopenia in individuals at increased risk; suggested tools for assessing risk include the Red Flag Method, the SARC-F questionnaire, the SMI method or different prediction equations. Management of sarcopenia should primarily be patient centered and involve the combination of both resistance and endurance based activity programmes with or without dietary interventions. Development of a number of pharmacological interventions is also in progress. Assessment of sarcopenia in individuals with risk factors, symptoms and/or conditions exposing them to the risk of disability will become particularly important in the near future.

Global, regional, and national levels of maternal mortality, 1990–2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Abstract: Background In transitioning from the Millennium Development Goal to the Sustainable Development Goal era, it is imperative to comprehensively assess progress toward reducing maternal mortality to identify areas of success, remaining challenges, and frame policy discussions. We aimed to quantify maternal mortality throughout the world by underlying cause and age from 1990 to 2015. Methods We estimated maternal mortality at the global, regional, and national levels from 1990 to 2015 for ages 10–54 years by systematically compiling and processing all available data sources from 186 of 195 countries and territories, 11 of which were analysed at the subnational level. We quantified eight underlying causes of maternal death and four timing categories, improving estimation methods since GBD 2013 for adult all-cause mortality, HIV-related maternal mortality, and late maternal death. Secondary analyses then allowed systematic examination of drivers of trends, including the relation between maternal mortality and coverage of specific reproductive health-care services as well as assessment of observed versus expected maternal mortality as a function of Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Findings Only ten countries achieved MDG 5, but 122 of 195 countries have already met SDG 3.1. Geographical disparities widened between 1990 and 2015 and, in 2015, 24 countries still had a maternal mortality ratio greater than 400. The proportion of all maternal deaths occurring in the bottom two SDI quintiles, where haemorrhage is the dominant cause of maternal death, increased from roughly 68% in 1990 to more than 80% in 2015. The middle SDI quintile improved the most from 1990 to 2015, but also has the most complicated causal profile. Maternal mortality in the highest SDI quintile is mostly due to other direct maternal disorders, indirect maternal disorders, and abortion, ectopic pregnancy, and/or miscarriage. Historical patterns suggest achievement of SDG 3.1 will require 91% coverage of one antenatal care visit, 78% of four antenatal care visits, 81% of in-facility delivery, and 87% of skilled birth attendance. Interpretation Several challenges to improving reproductive health lie ahead in the SDG era. Countries should establish or renew systems for collection and timely dissemination of health data; expand coverage and improve quality of family planning services, including access to contraception and safe abortion to address high adolescent fertility; invest in improving health system capacity, including coverage of routine reproductive health care and of more advanced obstetric care—including EmOC; adapt health systems and data collection systems to monitor and reverse the increase in indirect, other direct, and late maternal deaths, especially in high SDI locations; and examine their own performance with respect to their SDI level, using that information to formulate strategies to improve performance and ensure optimum reproductive health of their population. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

A systematic review of intervention thresholds based on FRAX : A report prepared for the National Osteoporosis Guideline Group and the International Osteoporosis Foundation.

Abstract: This systematic review identified assessment guidelines for osteoporosis that incorporate FRAX. The rationale for intervention thresholds is given in a minority of papers. Intervention thresholds (fixed or age-dependent) need to be country-specific. In most assessment guidelines, treatment for osteoporosis is recommended in individuals with prior fragility fractures, especially fractures at spine and hip. However, for those without prior fractures, the intervention thresholds can be derived using different methods. The aim of this report was to undertake a systematic review of the available information on the use of FRAX® in assessment guidelines, in particular the setting of thresholds and their validation. We identified 120 guidelines or academic papers that incorporated FRAX of which 38 provided no clear statement on how the fracture probabilities derived are to be used in decision-making in clinical practice. The remainder recommended a fixed intervention threshold (n = 58), most commonly as a component of more complex guidance (e.g. bone mineral density (BMD) thresholds) or an age-dependent threshold (n = 22). Two guidelines have adopted both age-dependent and fixed thresholds. Fixed probability thresholds have ranged from 4 to 20 % for a major fracture and 1.3–5 % for hip fracture. More than one half (39) of the 58 publications identified utilised a threshold probability of 20 % for a major osteoporotic fracture, many of which also mention a hip fracture probability of 3 % as an alternative intervention threshold. In nearly all instances, no rationale is provided other than that this was the threshold used by the National Osteoporosis Foundation of the USA. Where undertaken, fixed probability thresholds have been determined from tests of discrimination (Hong Kong), health economic assessment (USA, Switzerland), to match the prevalence of osteoporosis (China) or to align with pre-existing guidelines or reimbursement criteria (Japan, Poland). Age-dependent intervention thresholds, first developed by the National Osteoporosis Guideline Group (NOGG), are based on the rationale that if a woman with a prior fragility fracture is eligible for treatment, then, at any given age, a man or woman with the same fracture probability but in the absence of a previous fracture (i.e. at the ‘fracture threshold’) should also be eligible. Under current NOGG guidelines, based on age-dependent probability thresholds, inequalities in access to therapy arise especially at older ages (≥70 years) depending on the presence or absence of a prior fracture. An alternative threshold using a hybrid model reduces this disparity. The use of FRAX (fixed or age-dependent thresholds) as the gateway to assessment identifies individuals at high risk more effectively than the use of BMD. However, the setting of intervention thresholds needs to be country-specific.

Association Between Overweight and Obesity and Risk of Clinically Diagnosed Knee, Hip, and Hand Osteoarthritis: A Population-Based Cohort Study.

Abstract: Objective: Previous cohorts have reported associations between overweight/obesity and knee and hand osteoarthritis (OA). However, no data on the effect of these on the OA burden are available. We aimed to analyse the effect of overweight and obesity on the incidence of routinely diagnosed knee, hip, and hand OA. Methods: Design: population-based cohort Setting: primary care records from the SIDIAP database (>5.5 million subjects) covering >80% of the population of Catalonia, Spain. Participants: ?40 years old with no OA on 01/01/2006 and with body mass index (BMI) data available. Follow-up: from 01/01/2006 to 12/31/2010, loss to follow-up, or death. Measures: BMI World Health Organization categories (exposure), and incident clinical diagnoses of knee, hip, or hand OA (ICD-10 codes). Results: 1,764,061 subjects were observed for a median (inter-quartile range) of 4.45 (4.19 to 4.98) years. Incidence rates (per 1000 PY) of knee, hip and hand OA ranged from 3.7 (3.6 to 3.8), 1.7 (1.7 to 1.8) and 2.6 (2.5 to 2.7) amongst normal-weight, to 19.5 (19.1 to 19.9), 3.8 (3.7 to 4.0) and 4.0 (3.9 to 4.2) in the grade II obese respectively. Compared to normal-weight subjects, being overweight or obese increased the risk of OA at all three sites, especially at the knee: overweight and (grade I, II) obesity increased knee OA risk by a factor of 2, 3.1 and 4.7 fold respectively. Conclusions: Both overweight and obesity increase the risk of hand, hip, and knee OA, especially for the latter, with a dose-response gradient with increasing BMI.

Impact of hip fracture on hospital care costs: a population-based study

Abstract: Summary Using a large cohort of hip fracture patients, we estimated hospital costs to be £14,163 and £2139 in the first and second year following fracture, respectively. Second hip and non-hip fractures were major cost drivers. There is a strong economic incentive to identify cost-effective approaches for hip fracture prevention.

Prevalence and risk factors for falls in older men and women: The English Longitudinal Study of Ageing

Abstract: Background falls are a major cause of disability and death in older people. Women are more likely to fall than men, but little is known about whether risk factors for falls differ between the sexes. We used data from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing to investigate the prevalence of falls by sex and to examine cross-sectionally sex-specific associations between a range of potential risk factors and likelihood of falling. Methods participants were 4,301 men and women aged 60 and over who had taken part in the 2012–13 survey of the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing. They provided information about sociodemographic, lifestyle and behavioural and medical factors, had their physical and cognitive function assessed and responded to a question about whether they had fallen down in the last two years. Results in multivariable logistic regression models, severe pain and diagnosis of at least one chronic disease were independently associated with falls in both sexes. Sex-specific risk factors were incontinence (odds ratio (OR), 1.48; 95% CI, 1.19, 1.85) and frailty (OR 1.69, 95% CI 1.06, 2.69) in women, and older age (OR 1.02, 95% CI 1.04, 1.07), high levels of depressive symptoms (OR 1.33, 95% CI 1.05, 1.68), and being unable to perform a standing balance test (OR 3.32, 95% CI 2.09, 5.29) in men. Conclusion although we found some homogeneity between the sexes in the risk factors that were associated with falls, the existence of several sex-specific risk factors suggests that gender should be taken into account in designing fall-prevention strategies.

Global variation in grip strength: a systematic review and meta-analysis of normative data

Abstract: Background: weak grip strength is a key component of sarcopenia and is associated with subsequent disability and mortality. We have recently established life course normative data for grip strength in Great Britain, but it is unclear whether the cut points we derived for weak grip strength are suitable for use in other settings. Our objective was to investigate differences in grip strength by world region using our data as a reference standard. Methods: we searched MEDLINE and EMBASE for reporting age- and gender-stratified normative data for grip strength. We extracted each item of normative data and converted it on to a Z-score scale relative to our British centiles. We performed meta-regression to pool the Z-scores and compare them by world region. Findings: our search returned 806 abstracts. Sixty papers met inclusion criteria and reported on 63 different samples. Seven UN regions were represented, although most samples (n = 44) were based in developed regions. We extracted 726 normative data items relating to 96,537 grip strength observations. Normative data from developed regions were broadly similar to our British centiles, with a pooled Z-score 0.12 SDs (95% CI: 0.07, 0.17) above the corresponding British centiles. By comparison, normative data from developing regions were clearly lower, with a pooled Z-score of −0.85 SDs (95% CI: −0.94, −0.76). Interpretation: our findings support the use of our British grip strength centiles and their associated cut points in consensus definitions for sarcopenia and frailty across developed regions, but highlight the need for different cut points in developing regions.

Effects of Dairy Products Consumption on Health: Benefits and Beliefs—A Commentary from the Belgian Bone Club and the European Society for Clinical and Economic Aspects of Osteoporosis, Osteoarthritis and Musculoskeletal Diseases

Abstract: Dairy products provide a package of essential nutrients that is difficult to obtain in low-dairy or dairy-free diets, and for many people it is not possible to achieve recommended daily calcium intakes with a dairy-free diet. Despite the established benefits for bone health, some people avoid dairy in their diet due to beliefs that dairy may be detrimental to health, especially in those with weight management issues, lactose intolerance, osteoarthritis, rheumatoid arthritis, or trying to avoid cardiovascular disease. This review provides information for health professionals to enable them to help their patients make informed decisions about consuming dairy products as part of a balanced diet. There may be a weak association between dairy consumption and a possible small weight reduction, with decreases in fat mass and waist circumference and increases in lean body mass. Lactose intolerant individuals may not need to completely eliminate dairy products from their diet, as both yogurt and hard cheese are well tolerated. Among people with arthritis, there is no evidence for a benefit to avoid dairy consumption. Dairy products do not increase the risk of cardiovascular disease, particularly if low fat. Intake of up to three servings of dairy products per day appears to be safe and may confer a favourable benefit with regard to bone health.

Clinical effectiveness of orthogeriatric and fracture liaison service models of care for hip fracture patients: population-based longitudinal study.

Abstract: Objectives: to evaluate orthogeriatric and nurse-led fracture liaison service (FLS) models of post-hip fracture care in terms of impact on mortality (30 days and 1 year) and second hip fracture (2 years). Setting: Hospital Episode Statistics database linked to Office for National Statistics mortality records for 11 acute hospitals in a region of England. Population: patients aged over 60 years admitted for a primary hip fracture from 2003 to 2013. Methods: each hospital was analysed separately and acted as its own control in a before–after time-series design in which the appointment of an orthogeriatrician or set-up/expansion of an FLS was evaluated. Multivariable Cox regression (mortality) and competing risk survival models (second hip fracture) were used. Fixed effects meta-analysis was used to pool estimates of impact for interventions of the same type. Results: of 33,152 primary hip fracture patients, 1,288 sustained a second hip fracture within 2 years (age and sex standardised proportion of 4.2%). 3,033 primary hip fracture patients died within 30 days and 9,662 died within 1 year (age and sex standardised proportion of 9.5% and 29.8%, respectively). The estimated impact of introducing an orthogeriatrician on 30-day and 1-year mortality was hazard ratio (HR) = 0.73 (95% CI: 0.65–0.82) and HR = 0.81 (CI: 0.75–0.87), respectively. Following an FLS, these associations were as follows: HR = 0.80 (95% CI: 0.71–0.91) and HR = 0.84 (0.77–0.93). There was no significant impact on time to second hip fracture. Conclusions: the introduction and/or expansion of orthogeriatric and FLS models of post-hip fracture care has a beneficial effect on subsequent mortality. No evidence for a reduction in second hip fracture rate was found.

'Making every contact count': Evaluation of the impact of an intervention to train health and social care practitioners in skills to support health behaviour change

Abstract: A total of 148 health and social care practitioners were trained in skills to support behaviour change: creating opportunities to discuss health behaviours, using open discovery questions, listening, reflecting and goal-setting At three time points post-training, use of the skills was evaluated and compared with use of skills by untrained practitioners Trained practitioners demonstrated significantly greater use of these client-centred skills to support behaviour change compared to their untrained peers up to 1 year post-training Because it uses existing services to deliver support for behaviour change, this training intervention has the potential to improve public health at relatively low cost

Diacerein: Benefits, Risks and Place in the Management of Osteoarthritis. An Opinion-Based Report from the ESCEO.

Abstract: Diacerein is a symptomatic slow-acting drug in osteoarthritis (SYSADOA) with anti-inflammatory, anti-catabolic and pro-anabolic properties on cartilage and synovial membrane. It has also recently been shown to have protective effects against subchondral bone remodelling. Following the end of the revision procedure by the Pharmacovigilance Risk Assessment Committee of the European Medicines Agency, the European Society for Clinical and Economic Aspects of Osteoporosis and Osteoarthritis (ESCEO) constituted a panel of 11 experts to better define the real place of diacerein in the armamentarium for treating OA. Based on a literature review of clinical trials and meta-analyses, the ESCEO confirms that the efficacy of diacerein is similar to that of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) after the first month of treatment, and superior to that of paracetamol. Additionally, diacerein has shown a prolonged effect on symptoms of several months once treatment was stopped. The use of diacerein is associated with common gastrointestinal disorders such as soft stools and diarrhoea, common mild skin reactions, and, uncommonly, hepatobiliary disorders. However, NSAIDs and paracetamol are known to cause potentially severe hepatic, gastrointestinal, renal, cutaneous and cardiovascular reactions. Therefore, the ESCEO concludes that the benefit–risk balance of diacerein remains positive in the symptomatic treatment of hip and knee osteoarthritis. Furthermore, similarly to other SYSADOAs, the ESCEO positions diacerein as a first-line pharmacological background treatment of osteoarthritis, particularly for patients in whom NSAIDs or paracetamol are contraindicated.

Recommendations for the conduct of clinical trials for drugs to treat or prevent sarcopenia.

Abstract: Purpose Sarcopenia is an age-related muscle condition which is frequently a precursor of frailty, mobility disability and premature death. It has a high prevalence in older populations and presents a considerable social and economic burden. Potential treatments are under development but, as yet, no guidelines support regulatory studies for new drugs to manage sarcopenia. The objective of this position paper is therefore to suggest a set of potential endpoints and target population definitions to stimulate debate and progress within the medico-scientific and regulatory communities.