D'auria Francesca

Bio: D'auria Francesca is an academic researcher. The author has contributed to research in topics: Potential output. The author has an hindex of 1, co-authored 1 publications receiving 274 citations.

The production function methodology for calculating potential growth rates and output gaps

Abstract: This paper provides a detailed description of the current version of the Ecofin Council approved production function (PF) methodology which is used for assessing both the productive capacity (i.e. potential output) and cyclical position (i.e. output gaps) of EU economies. Compared with the previous 2010 paper on the same topic, there have been two significant changes to the PF methodology, namely an overhaul of the NAWRU methodology & the introduction of a new T+10 methodology.

Quarterly Economic Commentary

Abstract: Following the substantial pre-2007 housing bubble experienced in the domestic economy, Irish house prices continued to fall for almost seven years up to the mid-point of 2013. Since 2013 the rate of price increases observed, particularly in the Dublin area, has prompted concerns of another price bubble emerging. In this paper, the results from an earlier analysis of Irish house prices are updated and supplemented with cross-country indicators of housing market conditions. The results suggest that Irish house prices, as of December 2013, were still somewhat undervalued and, in the absence of a significant housing supply response, are likely to continue to increase in the coming years.

Euro area labour markets and the crisis

Abstract: Between the start of the economic and financial crisis in 2008, and early 2010, almost four million jobs were lost in the euro area. Employment began to rise again in the first half of 2011, but declined once more at the end of that year and remains at around three million workers below the pre-crisis level. However, in comparison with the severity of the fall in GDP, employment adjustment has been relatively muted at the aggregate euro area level, mostly due to significant labour hoarding in several euro area countries. While the crisis has, so far, had a more limited or shorter-lived impact in some euro area countries, in others dramatic changes in employment and unemployment rates have been observed and, indeed, more recent data tend to show the effects of a re-intensification of the crisis. The main objectives of this report are: (a) to understand the notable heterogeneity in the adjustment observed across euro area labour markets, ascertaining the role of the various shocks, labour market institutions and policy responses in shaping countries JEL Classification: E42, F15, F33, F41

Adjusting the budget balance for the business cycle: the EU methodology

Abstract: The cyclically-adjusted budget balance (CAB) is the backbone of the EU framework of fiscal surveillance, both in its preventive and corrective arms. The concept corresponds to the budget balance prevailing if the economy was running at potential. After correcting for the one-off and temporary measures, it is called structural budget balance and used to assess the fiscal policy stance. This paper presents the EU methodology for computing the CAB. It derives the new value of the budgetary semi-elasticities following the recent revision of individual revenue and expenditure elasticities by the OECD and shows the effect of the revised elasticities on the CAB.

A Simple Multivariate Filter for Estimating Potential Output

Abstract: Estimates of potential output are an important ingredient of structured forecasting and policy analysis. Using information on consensus forecasts, this paper extends the multivariate filter developed by Benes and others (2010). Although the estimates in real time are more robust relative to those of naive statistical filters, there is still significant uncertainty surrounding the estimates. The paper presents estimates for 16 countries and provides an example of how the filtered estimates at the end of the sample period can be improved with additional information.

The gap between public and private wages: new evidence for the EU

Abstract: This paper aims to assess the size of the wage gap between the public and private sectors within all European Union countries by using the European Structure of Earnings Survey (SES henceforth), compiled by Eurostat for the years 2006 and 2010. Public sector employees are found to enjoy on average higher wages than comparable workers in the private sector in 2010, even after controlling for the level of educational attainment. Regarding gender, contrary to other empirical papers, for the countries with full public sector coverage, we do not find evidence of a higher positive wage gap for women. On average the public wage premium is higher for older workers and workers with lower levels of education. Finally, negative public wage premia are found for workers at higher positions, whereas the positive and sometimes large overall public wage gaps are mainly explained by the sizeable gaps observed at lower job positions.