Author
D. Carolina Useche
Bio: D. Carolina Useche is an academic researcher from Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute. The author has contributed to research in topics: Biodiversity & Deforestation. The author has an hindex of 4, co-authored 6 publications receiving 1127 citations.
Papers
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William F. Laurance1, William F. Laurance2, D. Carolina Useche2, Julio Rendeiro2 +213 more•Institutions (101)
TL;DR: These findings suggest that tropical protected areas are often intimately linked ecologically to their surrounding habitats, and that a failure to stem broad-scale loss and degradation of such habitats could sharply increase the likelihood of serious biodiversity declines.
Abstract: The rapid disruption of tropical forests probably imperils global biodiversity more than any other contemporary phenomenon(1-3). With deforestation advancing quickly, protected areas are increasingly becoming final refuges for threatened species and natural ecosystem processes. However, many protected areas in the tropics are themselves vulnerable to human encroachment and other environmental stresses(4-9). As pressures mount, it is vital to know whether existing reserves can sustain their biodiversity. A critical constraint in addressing this question has been that data describing a broad array of biodiversity groups have been unavailable for a sufficiently large and representative sample of reserves. Here we present a uniquely comprehensive data set on changes over the past 20 to 30 years in 31 functional groups of species and 21 potential drivers of environmental change, for 60 protected areas stratified across the world's major tropical regions. Our analysis reveals great variation in reserve 'health': about half of all reserves have been effective or performed passably, but the rest are experiencing an erosion of biodiversity that is often alarmingly widespread taxonomically and functionally. Habitat disruption, hunting and forest-product exploitation were the strongest predictors of declining reserve health. Crucially, environmental changes immediately outside reserves seemed nearly as important as those inside in determining their ecological fate, with changes inside reserves strongly mirroring those occurring around them. These findings suggest that tropical protected areas are often intimately linked ecologically to their surrounding habitats, and that a failure to stem broad-scale loss and degradation of such habitats could sharply increase the likelihood of serious biodiversity declines.
962 citations
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James Cook University1, Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute2, BirdLife International3, University of Zurich4, Massachusetts Institute of Technology5, University College London6, University of York7, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna8, University of Vienna9, Jagiellonian University10, University of Amsterdam11, University of Missouri12, Colgate University13, University of La Réunion14, The Wilderness Society15, National Autonomous University of Mexico16, Royal Botanic Gardens17, Columbus State University18, University of Koblenz and Landau19, Missouri Botanical Garden20, Makerere University21, University of Göttingen22, University of Costa Rica23, University of Florida24, Pontifical Xavierian University25, Universidad Veracruzana26, Natural History Museum27, Staatliches Museum für Naturkunde Stuttgart28, The Evergreen State College29, Colorado State University30, Field Museum of Natural History31, University of Leeds32, University of Puerto Rico33, Stellenbosch University34, Addis Ababa University35, University of California, Los Angeles36, Australian National University37
TL;DR: This paper found that species classified as elevational specialists (upper or lower-zone specialists) are relatively more frequent in the American than Asia-Pacific tropics, with African tropics being intermediate.
220 citations
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TL;DR: It is suggested that early publication success is vital for aspiring young scientists and that one of the easiest ways to identify rising stars is simply to find those who have published early and often.
Abstract: Can one foresee whether young scientists will publish successfully during their careers? For academic biologists on four continents, we evaluated the effects of gender, native language, prestige of the institution at which they received their PhD, the date of their first publication (relative to the year of PhD completion), and their pre-PhD publication record as potential indicators of long-term publication success (10 years post-PhD). Pre-PhD publication success was the strongest correlate of long-term success. Gender, language, and the date of first publication had ancillary roles, with native English speakers, males, and those who published earlier in their career having minor advantages. Once these aspects were accounted for, university prestige had almost no discernable effect. We suggest that early publication success is vital for aspiring young scientists and that one of the easiest ways to identify rising stars is simply to find those who have published early and often.
94 citations
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TL;DR: It is hypothesized that men would also rate their personal scientific expertise more highly than would women, given comparable levels of individual experience, and tested this hypothesis as part of a global survey of recognized scientific experts engaged in long-term environmental or ecological research at 60 protected areas stratified across forests.
Abstract: [Extract] Many readers of TREE are interested in the factors that determine scientific success, some of which could be influenced by the gender of scientists (e.g. [1], [2] and [3]). Given general tendencies for men to have a more-positive attitude toward science [4], to publish more frequently in scientific journals [5] and to engage more forcefully in self-promotion [6] and [7], we hypothesized that men would also rate their personal scientific expertise more highly than would women, given comparable levels of individual experience. We term our hypothesis the 'Homer Simpson Effect' in honor of a well-known male cartoon character who thinks very highly of his own intellectual prowess (http://www.angelfire.com/home/pearly/homer/homer-quotes1.html).
We had a good opportunity to test our hypothesis as part of a global survey of recognized scientific experts engaged in long-term environmental or ecological research at 60 protected areas stratified across forests of the Asia-Pacific, African and American tropics, conducted from 2008 to 2010. We identified our experts mostly via scientific publications and recommendations from other scientists. No effort was made to include gender as a consideration in the study. In addition to a battery of questions about the study area in which they had long-term expertise, we recorded three general attributes for each scientist: (i) their gender; (ii) the number of years they had worked at the site; and (iii) their perceived level of knowledge about their study area (1, excellent; 2, good; 3, fair; scored at increments of 0.5). We recorded variable (ii) in two ways: as the number of years since the scientist first visited their study site and, whenever possible, as the total number of years that she or he had actually spent at the site. These two metrics were strongly and linearly related (R2 = 84.1%, F1,167 = 883, P < 0.0001; linear regression) and yielded almost identical results in our analyses, so we used the former as it was available for all participants in our study.
10 citations
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TL;DR: There is no evidence that the approaches Bruna advocates would have appreciably improved the analysis or altered the conclusions of this study.
Abstract: [Extract] We assessed Bruna's (doi:10.1093/biosci/biu003) assertions and found no evidence that the approaches he advocates would have appreciably improved our analysis or altered our conclusions.
3 citations
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TL;DR: A step change involving increased recognition, funding, planning and enforcement is urgently needed if protected areas are going to fulfil their potential.
Abstract: Originally conceived to conserve iconic landscapes and wildlife, protected areas are now expected to achieve an increasingly diverse set of conservation, social and economic objectives. The amount of land and sea designated as formally protected has markedly increased over the past century, but there is still a major shortfall in political commitments to enhance the coverage and effectiveness of protected areas. Financial support for protected areas is dwarfed by the benefits that they provide, but these returns depend on effective management. A step change involving increased recognition, funding, planning and enforcement is urgently needed if protected areas are going to fulfil their potential.
1,400 citations
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TL;DR: Key priorities are to improve technologies and policies that promote more ecologically efficient food production while optimizing the allocation of lands to conservation and agriculture.
Abstract: The human population is projected to reach 11 billion this century, with the greatest increases in tropical developing nations. This growth, in concert with rising per-capita consumption, will require large increases in food and biofuel production. How will these megatrends affect tropical terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems and biodiversity? We foresee (i) major expansion and intensification of tropical agriculture, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa and South America; (ii) continuing rapid loss and alteration of tropical old-growth forests, woodlands, and semi-arid environments; (iii) a pivotal role for new roadways in determining the spatial extent of agriculture; and (iv) intensified conflicts between food production and nature conservation. Key priorities are to improve technologies and policies that promote more ecologically efficient food production while optimizing the allocation of lands to conservation and agriculture.
1,066 citations
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TL;DR: It is suggested that p-hacking probably does not drastically alter scientific consensuses drawn from meta-analyses, and its effect seems to be weak relative to the real effect sizes being measured.
Abstract: A focus on novel, confirmatory, and statistically significant results leads to substantial bias in the scientific literature. One type of bias, known as “p-hacking,” occurs when researchers collect or select data or statistical analyses until nonsignificant results become significant. Here, we use text-mining to demonstrate that p-hacking is widespread throughout science. We then illustrate how one can test for p-hacking when performing a meta-analysis and show that, while p-hacking is probably common, its effect seems to be weak relative to the real effect sizes being measured. This result suggests that p-hacking probably does not drastically alter scientific consensuses drawn from meta-analyses.
852 citations
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TL;DR: Proactive international efforts to increase crop yields, minimize land clearing and habitat fragmentation, and protect natural lands could increase food security in developing nations and preserve much of Earth's remaining biodiversity.
Abstract: Tens of thousands of species are threatened with extinction as a result of human activities. Here we explore how the extinction risks of terrestrial mammals and birds might change in the next 50 years. Future population growth and economic development are forecasted to impose unprecedented levels of extinction risk on many more species worldwide, especially the large mammals of tropical Africa, Asia and South America. Yet these threats are not inevitable. Proactive international efforts to increase crop yields, minimize land clearing and habitat fragmentation, and protect natural lands could increase food security in developing nations and preserve much of Earth's remaining biodiversity.
647 citations
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TL;DR: This large-scale zoning plan seeks to limit the environmental costs of road expansion while maximizing its benefits for human development, by helping to increase agricultural production, which is an urgent priority given that global food demand could double by mid-century.
Abstract: The number and extent of roads will expand dramatically this century. Globally, at least 25 million kilometres of new roads are anticipated by 2050; a 60% increase in the total length of roads over that in 2010. Nine-tenths of all road construction is expected to occur in developing nations, including many regions that sustain exceptional biodiversity and vital ecosystem services. Roads penetrating into wilderness or frontier areas are a major proximate driver of habitat loss and fragmentation, wildfires, overhunting and other environmental degradation, often with irreversible impacts on ecosystems. Unfortunately, much road proliferation is chaotic or poorly planned, and the rate of expansion is so great that it often overwhelms the capacity of environmental planners and managers. Here we present a global scheme for prioritizing road building. This large-scale zoning plan seeks to limit the environmental costs of road expansion while maximizing its benefits for human development, by helping to increase agricultural production, which is an urgent priority given that global food demand could double by mid-century. Our analysis identifies areas with high environmental values where future road building should be avoided if possible, areas where strategic road improvements could promote agricultural development with relatively modest environmental costs, and 'conflict areas' where road building could have sizeable benefits for agriculture but with serious environmental damage. Our plan provides a template for proactively zoning and prioritizing roads during the most explosive era of road expansion in human history.
604 citations