A diagram has been devised that can provide a concise statistical summary of how well patterns match each other in terms of their correlation, their root-mean-square difference, and the ratio of their variances. Although the form of this diagram is general, it is especially useful in evaluating complex models, such as those used to study geophysical phenomena. Examples are given showing that the diagram can be used to summarize the relative merits of a collection of different models or to track changes in performance of a model as it is modified. Methods are suggested for indicating on these diagrams the statistical significance of apparent differences and the degree to which observational uncertainty and unforced internal variability limit the expected agreement between model-simulated and observed behaviors. The geometric relationship between the statistics plotted on the diagram also provides some guidance for devising skill scores that appropriately weight among the various measures of pattern correspondence.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/2000JD900719

Summarizing multiple aspects of model performance in a single diagram

The Tropical Ocean-Global Atmosphere (TOGA) program sought to determine the predictability of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system. The World Climate Research Programme's (WCRP) Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System (GOALS) program seeks to explore predictability of the global climate system through investigation of the major planetary heat sources and sinks, and interactions between them. The Asian-Australian monsoon system, which undergoes aperiodic and high amplitude variations on intraseasonal, annual, biennial and interannual timescales is a major focus of GOALS. Empirical seasonal forecasts of the monsoon have been made with moderate success for over 100 years. More recent modeling efforts have not been successful. Even simulation of the mean structure of the Asian monsoon has proven elusive and the observed ENSO-monsoon relationships has been difficult to replicate. Divergence in simulation skill occurs between integrations by different models or between members of ensembles of the same model. This degree of spread is surprising given the relative success of empirical forecast techniques. Two possible explanations are presented: difficulty in modeling the monsoon regions and nonlinear error growth due to regional hydrodynamical instabilities. It is argued that the reconciliation of these explanations is imperative for prediction of the monsoon to be improved. To this end, a thorough description of observed monsoon variability and the physical processes that are thought to be important is presented. Prospects of improving prediction and some strategies that may help achieve improvement are discussed.

/pdf/monsoons-processes-predictability-and-the-prospects-for-1auwiao0qt.pdf

Monsoons: Processes, predictability, and the prospects for prediction

Global status of commercialized biotech/GM crops: 2006.

There is growing evidence that the rate of warming is amplified with elevation, such that high-mountain environments experience more rapid changes in temperature than environments at lower elevations. Elevation-dependent warming (EDW) can accelerate the rate of change in mountain ecosystems, cryospheric systems, hydrological regimes and biodiversity. Here we review important mechanisms that contribute towards EDW: snow albedo and surface-based feedbacks; water vapour changes and latent heat release; surface water vapour and radiative flux changes; surface heat loss and temperature change; and aerosols. All lead to enhanced warming with elevation (or at a critical elevation), and it is believed that combinations of these mechanisms may account for contrasting regional patterns of EDW. We discuss future needs to increase knowledge of mountain temperature trends and their controlling mechanisms through improved observations, satellite-based remote sensing and model simulations.

/pdf/elevation-dependent-warming-in-mountain-regions-of-the-world-541hcrkqly.pdf

Elevation-dependent warming in mountain regions of the world

Analysis of the 140-year historical record suggests that the inverse relationship between the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian summer monsoon (weak monsoon arising from warm ENSO event) has broken down in recent decades. Two possible reasons emerge from the analyses. A southeastward shift in the Walker circulation anomalies associated with ENSO events may lead to a reduced subsidence over the Indian region, thus favoring normal monsoon conditions. Additionally, increased surface temperatures over Eurasia in winter and spring, which are a part of the midlatitude continental warming trend, may favor the enhanced land-ocean thermal gradient conducive to a strong monsoon. These observations raise the possibility that the Eurasian warming in recent decades helps to sustain the monsoon rainfall at a normal level despite strong ENSO events.

/pdf/on-the-weakening-relationship-between-the-indian-monsoon-and-4y1pqv2xkm.pdf

On the Weakening Relationship Between the Indian Monsoon and ENSO

The Indian rainfall has often been used as a proxy data for the Asian monsoon as a whole for understanding the energy budget of the major circulation features and also used as an input parameter in estimating the other regional parameters. In view of this, a long homogeneous rainfall series of All-India (India taken as one unit) has been prepared based on a fixed and well distributed network of 306 raingauge stations over India by giving proper area-weightage. This paper contains a listing of All-India monthly, seasonal and annual homogeneous data series for the period 1871–1993. Some statistical details and long-term changes of the All-India monsoon rainfall have been discussed.

All-India monthly and seasonal rainfall series: 1871–1993

[1] Marked differences from global trends in terms of diurnal asymmetry of temperature trends were reported earlier for India, indicating that the warming over India was solely contributed by maximum temperatures. We report substantial recent changes in the nature of trends, using updated data sets up to 2003, with special focus on the last three decades. While all-India mean annual temperature has shown significant warming trend of 0.05°C/10yr during the period 1901–2003, the recent period 1971–2003 has seen a relatively accelerated warming of 0.22°C/10yr, which is largely due to unprecedented warming during the last decade. Further, in a major shift, the recent period is marked by rising temperatures during the monsoon season, resulting in a weakened seasonal asymmetry of temperature trends reported earlier. The recent accelerated warming over India is manifest equally in daytime and nighttime temperatures.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/2005GL023528

On the recent changes in surface temperature trends over India

Abnormalities in the performance of the Indian summer monsoon (June to September) rainfall, which provides 75–90 per cent of annual rainfall, have been studied during the period 1871 to 1984 over different meteorological subdivisions into which the country has been divided. Long homogeneous monsoon rainfall series of 29 subdivisions, prepared on the basis of a constant 306 rain gauges, have been tabulated for the users in view of their great importance. The criterion adopted in identification of drought/flood over a subdivision is the percentage of rainfall departures from normal, as officially used in the India Meteorological Department.

The worst drought years were 1877, 1899, 1911, 1918, 1920, 1951, 1965 and 1972 and the worst flood years were 1892, 1933, 1961 and 1983 when many subdivisions reported extremely low and excess rainfall, respectively. The probabilities of occurrence of droughts/floods are high in Haryana, Punjab, west Rajasthan, Gujarat and Saurashtra and Kutch subdivisions. The area of the country affected by drought conditions was at a maximum during the decade 1911–1920 and at a minimum during the decade 1881–1890. The decades 1971–1980 and 1921–1930 were characterized by maximum and minimum areas, respectively, under flood conditions. The percentage area of India which suffered from drought and flood was low during the continuous three decades 1921–1930, 1931–1940 and 1941–1950.

Droughts/floods in the summer monsoon season over different meteorological subdivisions of India for the period 1871–1984

The paper describes some homogenous representations of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall for the period 1871-1990, prepared on the basis of a fixed and well-distributed network of 306 rain-gauges. An Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) Index, indicating the net excess of deficient rainfall conditions over the country, is proposed. Statistical analysis of the above series identifies 18 large-scale dry years and 15 large-scale wet years during the last 120 yr. The decadal means of ISMR index were continuously negative for three decades 1901-30, positive 1931-60 and again became negative during the current period 1961-90.

Indian summer monsoon rainfall indices : 1871-1990

Extreme climate and weather events are increasingly being recognized as key aspects of climate change. Pre-monsoon season (March–May) is the hottest part of the year over almost the entire South Asian region, in which hot weather extremes including heat waves are recurring natural hazards having serious societal impacts, particularly on human health. In the present paper, recent trends in extreme temperature events for the pre-monsoon season have been studied using daily data on maximum and minimum temperatures over a well-distributed network of 121 stations for the period 1970–2005. For this purpose, time series of extreme temperature events have been constructed for India as a whole and seven homogeneous regions, viz., Western Himalaya (WH), Northwest (NW), Northeast (NE), North Central (NC), East coast (EC), West coast (WC) and Interior Peninsula (IP). In general, the frequency of occurrence of hot days and hot nights showed widespread increasing trend, while that of cold days and cold nights has shown widespread decreasing trend. The frequency of the occurrence of hot days is found to have significantly increased over EC, WC and IP, while that of cold days showed significant decreasing trend over WH and WC. The three regions EC, WC and NW showed significant increasing trend in the frequency of hot nights. For India as whole, the frequency of hot days and nights showed increasing trend while cold days and nights showed decreasing trends. Day-to-day fluctuations of pre-monsoon daily maximum and minimum temperatures have also been studied for the above regions. The results show that there is no significant change in day-to-day magnitude of fluctuations of pre-monsoon maximum and minimum temperatures. However, the results generally indicate that the daily maximum and minimum temperatures are becoming less variable within the season.

/pdf/recent-trends-in-pre-monsoon-daily-temperature-extremes-over-57ka4b8fwo.pdf

D. R. Kothawale

Papers

All-India monthly and seasonal rainfall series: 1871–1993

On the recent changes in surface temperature trends over India

Droughts/floods in the summer monsoon season over different meteorological subdivisions of India for the period 1871–1984

Indian summer monsoon rainfall indices : 1871-1990

Recent trends in pre-monsoon daily temperature extremes over India