Daniel Baloi

Bio: Daniel Baloi is an academic researcher from Eduardo Mondlane University. The author has contributed to research in topics: Risk management & Decision support system. The author has an hindex of 3, co-authored 3 publications receiving 560 citations.

Risk Analysis Techniques in Construction Engineering Projects

Abstract: There is a great deal of risk analysis techniques and tools available for the management of risks. In principle, each risk analysis technique has its strengths and weaknesses. Techniques such as Probability Theory, Certainty Factors, Dempster-Shaffer Theory of Evidence and Fuzzy Logic are discussed with regard to their application to risk analysis in construction engineering projects. Suggestions on the most appropriate tools associated with the techniques are also presented. The strengths and weaknesses of each technique are highlighted and discussed. It has been concluded that the nature of risks under consideration is determinant in the selection of modeling and analysis techniques.

Evaluation of global risk factors affecting cost performance in Mozambique

Abstract: The effective management of risk is critical to the success of any construction project and the importance of risk management has grown as projects have become more complex and competition has increased. Contractors have traditionally used financial mark-ups to cover the risk associated with construction projects but as competition increases and margins have become tighter they can no longer rely on this strategy and must improve their ability to manage risk. This paper presents the results of a survey conducted to evaluate the impact of global risk factors on cost performance of construction projects in Mozambique. The survey reported upon forms part of a larger study that aims to develop a fuzzy logic decision framework for contractors to better manage global risk factors affecting the cost performance of construction projects. Major global risk factors affecting cost performance were identified through an extensive literature review followed by a workshop and a questionnaire survey of construction contractors in Mozambique. The findings of the questionnaire form the basis for the repertory grid interviews aimed at eliciting relevant knowledge so as to develop a knowledge-based decision support system. There are several approaches to categorising risks permeating construction projects. This paper groups risks into three main categories, namely organisation-specific, global and Acts of God. It focuses on global risk factors because they are ill-defined, less understood by contractors and difficult to model, assess and manage although they have huge impact on cost performance. Generally, contractors, especially in developing countries, have insufficient experience and knowledge to manage them effectively. The surveyed contractors identified the following global risk factors as having significant impact: project size, project location, project complexity, estimator bias, market conditions, level of competition, fraudulent practices, construction, economic and political risk factors. The findings stress the need to depart from traditional approaches and to explore new directions in order to equip contractors with effective risk management tools.

Cost and time control of construction projects: inhibiting factors and mitigating measures in practice

Abstract: Despite the availability of various control techniques and project control software many construction projects still do not achieve their cost and time objectives. Research in this area so far has mainly been devoted to identifying causes of cost and time overruns. There is limited research geared towards studying factors inhibiting the ability of practitioners to effectively control their projects. To fill this gap, a survey was conducted on 250 construction project organizations in the UK, which was followed by face-to-face interviews with experienced practitioners from 15 of these organizations. The common factors that inhibit both time and cost control during construction projects were first identified. Subsequently 90 mitigating measures have been developed for the top five leading inhibiting factors—design changes, risks/uncertainties, inaccurate evaluation of project time/duration, complexities and non-performance of subcontractors were recommended. These mitigating measures were classified as: preventive, predictive, corrective and organizational measures. They can be used as a checklist of good practice and help project managers to improve the effectiveness of control of their projects.