Daniel S. Nagin

Bio: Daniel S. Nagin is an academic researcher from Carnegie Mellon University. The author has contributed to research in topics: Poison control & Aggression. The author has an hindex of 98, co-authored 246 publications receiving 41081 citations. Previous affiliations of Daniel S. Nagin include American Society of Criminology.

Group-based modeling of development

Abstract: Acknowledgments 1. Introduction and Rationale PART I. LAYING OUT THE BASIC MODEL 2. The Basic Model 3. Groups as an Approximation 4. Model Selection 5. Posterior Group-Membership Probabilities PART II. GENERALIZING THE BASIC MODEL 6. Statistically Linking Group Membership to Covariates 7. Adding Covariates to the Trajectories Themselves 8. Dual Trajectory Analysis 9. Concluding Observations References Index

Analyzing developmental trajectories: A semiparametric, group-based approach

Abstract: Carnegie Mellon UniversityA developmental trajectory describes the course of a behavior over age or time. Agroup-based method for identifying distinctive groups of individual trajectorieswithin the population and for profiling the characteristics of group members isdemonstrated. Such clusters might include groups of "increasers." "decreasers,"and "no changers." Suitably defined probability distributions are used to handle 3data types—count, binary, and psychometric scale data. Four capabilities are dem-onstrated: (a) the capability to identify rather than assume distinctive groups oftrajectories, (b) the capability to estimate the proportion of the population followingeach such trajectory group, (c) the capability to relate group membership probabil-ity to individual characteristics and circumstances, and (d) the capability to use thegroup membership probabilities for various other purposes such as creating profilesof group members.

A SAS procedure based on mixture models for estimating developmental trajectories

Abstract: This article introduces a new SAS procedure written by the authors that analyzes longitudinal data (developmental trajectories) by fitting a mixture model. The TRAJ procedure fits semiparametric (discrete) mixtures of censored normal, Poisson, zero-inflated Poisson, and Bernoulli distributions to longitudinal data. Applications to psychometric scale data, offense counts, and a dichotomous prevalence measure in violence research are illustrated. In addition, the use of the Bayesian information criterion to address the problem of model selection, including the estimation of the number of components in the mixture, is demonstrated.

Group-Based Trajectory Modeling in Clinical Research

Abstract: Group-based trajectory models are increasingly being applied in clinical research to map the developmental course of symptoms and assess heterogeneity in response to clinical interventions. In this review, we provide a nontechnical overview of group-based trajectory and growth mixture modeling alongside a sampling of how these models have been applied in clinical research. We discuss the challenges associated with the application of both types of group-based models and propose a set of preliminary guidelines for applied researchers to follow when reporting model results. Future directions in group-based modeling applications are discussed, including the use of trajectory models to facilitate causal inference when random assignment to treatment condition is not possible.

Developmental Trajectories of Childhood Disruptive Behaviors and Adolescent

Abstract: This study used data from 6 sites and 3 countries to examine the developmental course of physical aggression in childhood and to analyze its linkage to violent and nonviolent offending outcomes in adolescence. The results indicate that among boys there is continuity in problem behavior from childhood to adolescence and that such continuity is especially acute when early problem behavior takes the form of physical aggression. Chronic physical aggression during the elementary school years specifically increases the risk for continued physical violence as well as other nonviolent forms of delinquency during adolescence. However, this conclusion is reserved primarily for boys, because the results indicate no clear linkage between childhood physical aggression and adolescent offending among female samples despite notable similarities across male and female samples in the developmental course of physical aggression in childhood.

Adolescence-limited and life-course-persistent antisocial behavior: A developmental taxonomy.

Abstract: This chapter suggests that delinquency conceals two distinct categories of individuals, each with a unique natural history and etiology: A small group engages in antisocial behavior of one sort or another at every life stage, whereas a larger group is antisocial only during adolescence. According to the theory of life-course-persistent antisocial behavior, children's neuropsychological problems interact cumulatively with their criminogenic environments across development, culminating m a pathological personality. According to the theory of adolescence-limited antisocial behavior, a contemporary maturity gap encourages teens to mimic antisocial behavior in ways that are normative and adjustive. There are marked individual differences in the stability of antisocial behavior. The chapter reviews the mysterious relationship between age and antisocial behavior. Some youths who refrain from antisocial behavior may, for some reason, not sense the maturity gap and therefore lack the hypothesized motivation for experimenting with crime.

Cognitive Reflection and Decision Making

Abstract: This paper introduces a three-item "Cognitive Reflection Test" (CRT) as a simple measure of one type of cognitive ability—the ability or disposition to reflect on a question and resist reporting the first response that comes to mind. The author will show that CRT scores are predictive of the types of choices that feature prominently in tests of decision-making theories, like expected utility theory and prospect theory. Indeed, the relation is sometimes so strong that the preferences themselves effectively function as expressions of cognitive ability—an empirical fact begging for a theoretical explanation. The author examines the relation between CRT scores and two important decision-making characteristics: time preference and risk preference. The CRT scores are then compared with other measures of cognitive ability or cognitive "style." The CRT scores exhibit considerable difference between men and women and the article explores how this relates to sex differences in time and risk preferences. The final section addresses the interpretation of correlations between cognitive abilities and decision-making characteristics.

Heuristics and Biases: The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment

Abstract: A review is presented of the book “Heuristics and Biases: The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment,” edited by Thomas Gilovich, Dale Griffin, and Daniel Kahneman.

Evolution and Rationality Some Recent Game-Theoretic Results. Identification and Estimation of Local Average Treatment Effects

Abstract: We investigate conditions sufficient for identification of average treatment effects using instrumental variables. First we show that the existence of valid instruments is not sufficient to identify any meaningful average treatment effect. We then establish that the combination of an instrument and a condition on the relation between the instrument and the participation status is sufficient for identification of a local average treatment effect for those who can be induced to change their participation status by changing the value of the instrument. Finally we derive the probability limit of the standard IV estimator under these conditions. It is seen to be a weighted average of local average treatment effects.