David A. Short

Bio: David A. Short is an academic researcher from ENSCO, Inc.. The author has contributed to research in topics: Precipitation & Radar. The author has an hindex of 26, co-authored 58 publications receiving 3269 citations. Previous affiliations of David A. Short include Goddard Space Flight Center.

Evidence from Tropical Raindrop Spectra of the Origin of Rain from Stratiform versus Convective Clouds

Abstract: An analysis of temporal variations in gamma parameters of raindrop spectra is presented utilizing surface-based observations from the Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere Couple Ocean-Atmosphere Experiment. An observed dramatic change in the N0 parameter, found to occur during rainfall events with little change in rainfall rate, is suggestive of a transition from rain of convective origin to rain originating from the stratiform portion of tropical systems. An empirical stratiform-convective classification method based on N0 and R (rainfall rate) is presented. Properties of the drop size spectra from the stratiform classification are consistent with micro-physical processes occurring within an aggregation/melting layer aloft, which produces more large raindrops and fewer small to medium size raindrops than rain from the convective classification, at the same rainfall rate. The occurrence of precipitation was found to be 74% (stratiform) and 26% (convective), but total rainfall, on the other hand, was ...

Diurnal Variations in Tropical Oceanic Cumulus Convection during TOGA COARE

Abstract: Diurnal variations in atmospheric convection, dynamic/thermodynamic fields, and heat/moisture budgets over the equatorial Pacific warm pool region are analyzed based on data collected from different observation platforms during the Intensive Observation Period of the Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere Coupled Ocean‐Atmosphere Response Experiment (TOGA COARE). Results reveal that the diurnal variations in rainfall/convection over the TOGA COARE region can be classified into three distinct stages: warm morning cumulus, afternoon convective showers, and nocturnal convective systems. Afternoon rainfall comes mostly from convective cells, but the nocturnal rainfall is derived from deeper convective cells and large areas of stratiform clouds. Results further show that afternoon convective showers are more evident in the large-scale undisturbed periods when the diurnal SST cycle is strong, but the nocturnal convective systems and morning cumulus are more enhanced in the disturbed periods when more moisture is available. The primary cause of the nocturnal rainfall maximum is suggested to be associated with more (less) available precipitable water in the night (day) due to the diurnal radiative cooling/heating cycle and the resultant change in tropospheric relative humidity.

Simple Energy Balance Model Resolving the Seasons and the Continents' Application to the Astronomical Theory of the Ice Ages

Abstract: An analysis is undertaken of the properties of a one-level seasonal energy balance climate model having explicit, two-dimensional land-sea geography, where land and sea surfaces are strictly distinguished by the local thermal inertia employed and transport is governed by a smooth, latitude-dependent diffusion mechanism. Solutions of the seasonal cycle for the cases of both ice feedback exclusion and inclusion yield good agreements with real data, using minimal turning of the adjustable parameters. Discontinuous icecap growth is noted for both a solar constant that is lower by a few percent and a change of orbital elements to favor cool Northern Hemisphere summers. This discontinuous sensitivity is discussed in the context of the Milankovitch theory of the ice ages, and the associated branch structure is shown to be analogous to the 'small ice cap' instability of simpler models.

Bayesian Prediction of Transformed Gaussian Random Fields

Abstract: A model for prediction in some types of non-Gaussian random fields is presented. It extends the work of Handcock and Stein to prediction in transformed Gaussian random fields, where the transformation is known to belong to a parametric family of monotone transformations. The Bayesian transformed Gaussian model (BTG) provides an alternative to trans-Gaussian kriging taking into account the major sources of uncertainty, including uncertainty about the “normalizing transformation” itself, in the computation of the predictive density function. Unlike trans-Gaussian kriging, this approach mitigates the consequences of a misspecified transformation, giving in this sense a more robust predictive inference. Because the mean of the predictive distribution does not exist for some commonly used families of transformations, the median is used as the optimal predictor. The BTG model is applied in the spatial prediction of weekly rainfall amounts. Cross-validation shows the predicting performance of the BTG mo...

Trends, Rhythms, and Aberrations in Global Climate 65 Ma to Present

Abstract: Since 65 million years ago (Ma), Earth's climate has undergone a significant and complex evolution, the finer details of which are now coming to light through investigations of deep-sea sediment cores. This evolution includes gradual trends of warming and cooling driven by tectonic processes on time scales of 10(5) to 10(7) years, rhythmic or periodic cycles driven by orbital processes with 10(4)- to 10(6)-year cyclicity, and rare rapid aberrant shifts and extreme climate transients with durations of 10(3) to 10(5) years. Here, recent progress in defining the evolution of global climate over the Cenozoic Era is reviewed. We focus primarily on the periodic and anomalous components of variability over the early portion of this era, as constrained by the latest generation of deep-sea isotope records. We also consider how this improved perspective has led to the recognition of previously unforeseen mechanisms for altering climate.

The Changing Character of Precipitation

Abstract: From a societal, weather, and climate perspective, precipitation intensity, duration, frequency, and phase are as much of concern as total amounts, as these factors determine the disposition of precipitation once it hits the ground and how much runs off. At the extremes of precipitation incidence are the events that give rise to floods and droughts, whose changes in occurrence and severity have an enormous impact on the environment and society. Hence, advancing understanding and the ability to model and predict the character of precipitation is vital but requires new approaches to examining data and models. Various mechanisms, storms and so forth, exist to bring about precipitation. Because the rate of precipitation, conditional on when it falls, greatly exceeds the rate of replenishment of moisture by surface evaporation, most precipitation comes from moisture already in the atmosphere at the time the storm begins, and transport of moisture by the storm-scale circulation into the storm is vital....

Model-based Geostatistics

Abstract: An overview of model-based geostatistics.- Gaussian models for geostatistical data.- Generalized linear models for geostatistical data.- Classical parameter estimation.- Spatial prediction.- Bayesian inference.- Geostatistical design.

Tectonic forcing of late Cenozoic climate

Abstract: Global cooling in the Cenozoic, which led to the growth of large continental ice sheets in both hemispheres, may have been caused by the uplift of the Tibetan plateau and the positive feedbacks initiated by this event. In particular, tectonically driven increases in chemical weathering may have resulted in a decrease of atmospheric C02 concentration over the past 40 Myr.