计量经济分析 = Econometric analysis

Statistics for Spatial Data.

The present historical moment may seem a particularly inopportune time to review Bowling Alone, Robert Putnam's latest exploration of civic decline in America. After all, the outpouring of volunteerism, solidarity, patriotism, and self-sacrifice displayed by Americans in the wake of the September 11 terrorist attacks appears to fly in the face of Putnam's central argument: that \"social capital\" -defined as \"social networks and the norms of reciprocity and trustworthiness that arise from them\" (p. 19)'has declined to dangerously low levels in America over the last three decades. However, Putnam is not fazed in the least by the recent effusion of solidarity. Quite the contrary, he sees in it the potential to \"reverse what has been a 30to 40-year steady decline in most measures of connectedness or community.\"' As an example of how the current \"war on terrorism\" could generate a durable civic renewal, Putnam points to the burst in civic practices that occurred during and after World War II, which he says \"permanently marked\" the generation that lived through it and had a \"terrific effect on American public life over the last half-century.\" 3 If Americans can follow this example and channel their current civic

Bowling alone: The collapse and revival of American community

The author systematically examines one of the important issues of information — establishing the market price. He introduces the concept of «search» — where a buyer wanting to get a better price, is forced to question sellers. The article deals with various aspects of finding the necessary information.

Economics of Information

The demarcation of science from other intellectual activities-long an analytic problem for philosophers and sociologists-is here examined as a practical problem for scientists. Construction of a boundary between science and varieties of non-science is useful for scientists' pursuit of professional goals: acquisition of intellectual authority and career opportunities; denial of these resources to "pseudoscientists"; and protection of the autonomy of scientific research from political interference. "Boundary-work" describes an ideological style found in scientists' attempts to create a public image for science by contrasting it favorably to non-scientific intellectual or technical activities. Alternative sets of characteristics available for ideological attribution to science reflect ambivalences or strains within the institution: science can be made to look empirical or theoretical, pure or applied. However, selection of one or another description depends on which characteristics best achieve the demarcation in a way that justifies scientists' claims to authority or resources. Thus, "science" is no single thing: its boundaries are drawn and redrawn inflexible, historically changing and sometimes ambiguous ways.

Boundary-Work and the Demarcation of Science from Non-Science: Strains and Interests in Professional Ideologies of Scientists

Product inventory exerts two countervailing forces on the probability of purchase: More inventory on hand reduces the need to purchase; however, theory suggests higher levels of inventory can drive up consumption, thereby increasing the chance of purchase. Moreover, consumers have biased estimations of their own inventory—especially at high levels of inventory (Chandon and Wansink, 2006), which again suggests a positive relationship between inventory and purchase probability. We model the negative (standard) and positive effects of inventory on the probability of purchase. The model is calibrated on ten product categories and fits better than the standard nested logit and an alternative developed by Ailawadi and Neslin (1998). The elasticity of purchase incidence with respect to inventory represents these opposing forces in an intuitive way, implying an inventory threshold below (above) which the net effect is positive (negative). Estimated thresholds are plausible across categories, with the food categories of hot dogs, ice cream and soft drinks showing the largest effects.

The positive and negative effects of inventory on category purchase: An empirical analysis

The authors propose a new approach to obtaining stockkeeping-unit (SKU)-level preferences and response sensitivities. The authors distinguish an attribute-level model, in which the unit of analysis is the market share for an alternative created by aggregation (e.g., Colgate toothpaste), from a truly disaggregate SKU-level model, and they establish an analytical relationship between parameters that they obtain from the two models. The authors show that SKU-level parameters can be recovered by calculation from estimated attribute-level parameters, circumventing the need for direct estimation of the more complex SKU-level model. They calibrate the store data market share model using 98 weeks of data for ten brands and 168 SKUs of toothpaste. Rather than estimate 168 preference parameters (when there is an “outside” alternative in addition to the 168 “inside” ones), it is only necessary to estimate ten brand-preference parameters from which the 168 parameters can be computed, as long as share and mar...

Recovering stockkeeping-unit-level preferences and response sensitivities from market share models estimated on item aggregates

This chapter centres on the popular TV series (and movie and merchandizing spin-offs), The X-Files. In particular, it seeks to interrogate the 'conspiratorial narratives' that The X-Files dramatizes in its metatext. To accomplish this, we trace one story arc, or 'cumulative narrative', that crosses the seven seasons of the series broadcast by the end of 2000 in the UK: the story of the abduction of Samantha Mulder, younger sister of The X-Files' central character, FBI Special Agent Fox Mulder. This long-running, episodic storyline is especially pivotal to the series, as it is the desire to find 'the truth' of Samantha's abduction that propels Fox Mulder in his single-minded pursuit of answers to the riddles posed by the X-files. Our reading of the Samantha narrative is set in two contexts. First, as a core motif of The X-Files, it is located in the growing 'popular culture of conspiracy' the production, circulation and consumption of conspiracy theories within the broad realms of popular culture. It is then set in a second context; that of the 'conspiracy of popular culture'. In particular, focus here will be given to the ways in which 'fringe knowledges' such as those about alien abduction (propagated and popularized by The X-Files) gain popular currency and mass exposure at the same time that they suffer harsh critical scrutiny from what we might call 'knowledge-keepers'. By looking at critical responses both to 'fringe knowledges' and to their representation and reproduction in The X-Files, we want ultimately to think about the forms and functions of 'popular conspiracy culture'.

The popular culture of conspiracy/the conspiracy of popular culture

Femme on the Streets, Butch in the Sheets (A Play on Whores)

Unplanned category purchase incidence is an important source of retailer volume and profits. We analyze this phenomenon in detail with a multi-level Poisson model calibrated on data from 434 households making over 18,000 purchases in 58 categories across 3,000 trips to 21 stores. We find that unplanned category purchase incidence is not proportional to the number of categories bought, and not a single shopping trip is completely unplanned. The majority of variation is across shoppers. Specifically, it is explained in part by demographic variables traditionally measured by marketers, but more by other ―traits‖ that reflect long-run shopping habits such as level of planning and information gathering styles. Short term shopping goals (e.g., major trip, forgotten needs, etc.) also play an important role. We replicate classic results of time available (more unplanned purchasing) and high store knowledge (less unplanned purchasing); however we find that the overall occurrence of unplanned purchasing is significantly lower than that commonly reported.

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David Bell

Papers

The positive and negative effects of inventory on category purchase: An empirical analysis

Recovering stockkeeping-unit-level preferences and response sensitivities from market share models estimated on item aggregates

The popular culture of conspiracy/the conspiracy of popular culture

Femme on the Streets, Butch in the Sheets (A Play on Whores)

Unplanned Category Purchase Incidence: Who Does It, How Often, and Why