David Bowman

Bio: David Bowman is an academic researcher from Federal Reserve System. The author has contributed to research in topics: Monetary policy & Quantitative easing. The author has an hindex of 12, co-authored 30 publications receiving 1070 citations. Previous affiliations of David Bowman include University of New South Wales.

Loss aversion in a consumption-savings model

Abstract: We propose a model of consumption and saving based on Kahneman and Tversky's Prospect Theory that implies a fundamental asymmetry in consumption behavior inconsistent with other models of consumption. When there is sufficient income uncertainty, a person resists lowering consumption in response to bad news about future income. This resistance is greater than the resistance to increasing consumption in response to good news. We present empirical evidence from five countries that confirms this behavior.

U.S. Unconventional Monetary Policy and Transmission to Emerging Market Economies

Abstract: We investigate the effects of U.S. unconventional monetary policies on sovereign yields, foreign exchange rates, and stock prices in emerging market economies (EMEs), and we analyze how these effects depend on country-specifc characteristics. We find that, although EME asset prices, mainly those of sovereign bonds, responded strongly to unconventional monetary policy announcements, these responses were not outsized with respect to a model that takes into account each country's time-varying vulnerability to U.S. interest rates affected by monetary policy shocks.

Interest on excess reserves as a monetary policy instrument: the experience of foreign central banks

Abstract: This paper reviews the experience of eight major foreign central banks with policy interest rates comparable to the interest rate on excess reserves paid by the Federal Reserve. We pursue two main lines of inquiry: 1) To what extent have these policy interest rates been lower bounds for short-term market rates, and 2) to what extent has tightening that included increasing these policy rates been achieved without reliance on reductions in reserves or other deposits held at the central bank? The foreign experience suggests that policy rate floors can be effective lower bounds for market rates, although incomplete access to central bank accounts and interest on them weakens this result. In addition, the foreign experience suggests that tightening by increasing the interest rate paid on central bank balances can help reduce or eliminate the need to drain balances. These results are consistent with theoretical results that show that tightening without draining is possible, irrespective of whether excess reserves are large or small.

Time Discounting and Time Preference: A Critical Review

Abstract: This paper discusses the discounted utility (DU) model: its historical development, underlying assumptions, and "anomalies" - the empirical regularities that are inconsistent with its theoretical predictions. We then summarize the alternate theoretical formulations that have been advanced to address these anomalies. We also review three decades of empirical research on intertemporal choice, and discuss reasons for the spectacular variation in implicit discount rates across studies. Throughout the paper, we stress the importance of distinguishing time preference, per se, from many other considerations that also influence intertemporal choices.

Psychology and Economics

Abstract: UNTVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA AT BERKELEY Department of Economics Berkeley, CaHfornia 94720-3880 Working Paper No. 97-251 Psychology and Economics Matthew Rabin Department of Economics University of California, Berkeley January 1997 Key words: bounded rationality, decision making, fairness, framing effects, heuristics and biases, preferences, psychology, reciprocity, reference-dependent utility JEL Classification: A12, B49, D i l , D60, D81, D83, D91 This is a longer version of an essay under preparation for possible publication in the Journal of Economic Literature. I thank John Pencavel and anonymous referees for earlier comments on its structure and content. For comments on this draft, I thank Steven Blatt, Colin Camerer, Peter Diamond, Erik Eyster, Ernst Fehr, Danny Kahneman, George Loewenstein, Ted O'Donoghue, and John Pencavel. For helpful conversations over the past several years on topics covered in this essay, I thank George Akerlof, Gary Chamess, Eddie Dekel, Peter Diamond, David Laibson, David I. Levine, George Loewenstein, Rob MacCoun, James Montgomery, Vai-Lam Mui, Drazen Prelec, and especially Colin Camerer, Danny Kahneman, and Richard Thaler. Co-authors on research related to the topics of this essay include David Bowman, Deborah Minehart, Ted O'Donoghue, and Joel Schrag. Helpful research assistance was provided by Gadi Barlevy, Nikki Blasberg, Gail Brennan, Paul Ellickson, April Franco, Marcus Heng, Bruce Hsu, Jin Woo Jung, and especially Steven Blatt, Jimmy Chan, Erik Eyster, and Clara Wang. I am extremely grateful for financial support from the Russell Sage and Alfred P. Sloan Foundations.

A Model of Reference-Dependent Preferences

Abstract: We develop a model of reference-dependent preferences and loss aversion where “gain‐loss utility” is derived from standard “consumption utility” and the reference point is determined endogenously by the economic environment. We assume that a person’s reference point is her rational expectations held in the recent past about outcomes, which are determined in a personal equilibrium by the requirement that they must be consistent with optimal behavior given expectations. In deterministic environments, choices maximize consumption utility, but gain‐loss utility influences behavior when there is uncertainty. Applying the model to consumer behavior, we show that willingness to pay for a good is increasing in the expected probability of purchase and in the expected prices conditional on purchase. In within-day labor-supply decisions, a worker is less likely to continue work if income earned thus far is unexpectedly high, but more likely to show up as well as continue work if expected income is high.

A Model of Reference-Dependent Preferences

Abstract: We develop a model that fleshes out, extends, and modifies existing models of reference dependent preferences and loss aversion while accomodating most of the evidence motivating these models. Our approach makes reference-dependent theory more broadly applicable by avoiding some of the ways that prevailing models—if applied literally and without ancillary assumptions—make variously weak and incorrect predictions. Our model combines the reference-dependent gain-loss utility with standard economic “consumption utility†and clarifies the relationship between the two. Most importantly, we posit that a person’s reference point is her recent expectations about outcomes (rather than the status quo), and assume that behavior accords to a personal equilibrium: The person maximizes utility given her rational expectations about outcomes, where these expectations depend on her own anticipated behavior. We apply our theory to consumer behavior, and emphasize that a consumer’s willingness to pay for a good is endogenously determined by the market distribution of prices and how she expects to respond to these prices. Because a buyer’s willingness to buy depends on whether she anticipates buying the good, for a range of market prices there are multiple personal equilibria. This multiplicity disappears when the consumer is sufficiently uncertain about the price she will face. Because paying more than she anticipated induces a sense of loss in the buyer, the lower the prices at which she expects to buy the lower will be her willingness to pay. In some situations, a known stochastic decrease in prices can even lower the quantity demanded.

Precautionary Saving in the Small and in the Large

Abstract: The theory of precautionary saving is shown in this paper to be isomorphic to the Arrow-Pratt theory of risk aversion, making possible the application of a large body of knowledge about risk aversion to precautionary saving, and more generally, to the theory of optimal choice under risk In particular, a measure of the strength of precautionary saving motive analogous to the Arrow-Pratt measure of risk aversion is used to establish a number of new propositions about precautionary saving, and to give a new interpretation of the Oreze-Modigliani substitution effect