This chapter should be cited as: Myhre, G., D. Shindell, F.-M. Bréon, W. Collins, J. Fuglestvedt, J. Huang, D. Koch, J.-F. Lamarque, D. Lee, B. Mendoza, T. Nakajima, A. Robock, G. Stephens, T. Takemura and H. Zhang, 2013: Anthropogenic and Natural Radiative Forcing. In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. Coordinating Lead Authors: Gunnar Myhre (Norway), Drew Shindell (USA)

Anthropogenic and Natural Radiative Forcing

The severity of damaging human-induced climate change depends not only on the magnitude of the change but also on the potential for irreversibility. This paper shows that the climate change that takes place due to increases in carbon dioxide concentration is largely irreversible for 1,000 years after emissions stop. Following cessation of emissions, removal of atmospheric carbon dioxide decreases radiative forcing, but is largely compensated by slower loss of heat to the ocean, so that atmospheric temperatures do not drop significantly for at least 1,000 years. Among illustrative irreversible impacts that should be expected if atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations increase from current levels near 385 parts per million by volume (ppmv) to a peak of 450–600 ppmv over the coming century are irreversible dry-season rainfall reductions in several regions comparable to those of the “dust bowl” era and inexorable sea level rise. Thermal expansion of the warming ocean provides a conservative lower limit to irreversible global average sea level rise of at least 0.4–1.0 m if 21st century CO2 concentrations exceed 600 ppmv and 0.6–1.9 m for peak CO2 concentrations exceeding ≈1,000 ppmv. Additional contributions from glaciers and ice sheet contributions to future sea level rise are uncertain but may equal or exceed several meters over the next millennium or longer.

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Irreversible climate change due to carbon dioxide emissions

Fabry, V. J., Seibel, B. A., Feely, R. A., and Orr, J. C. 2008. Impacts of ocean acidification on marine fauna and ecosystem processes. - ICES Journal of Marine Science, 65: 414-432.Oceanic uptake of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) is altering the seawater chemistry of the world’s oceans with consequences for marine biota. Elevated partial pressure of CO 2 (pCO 2 ) is causing the calcium carbonate saturation horizon to shoal in many regions, particularly in high latitudes and regions that intersect with pronounced hypoxic zones. The ability of marine animals, most importantly pteropod molluscs, foraminifera, and some benthic invertebrates, to produce calcareous skeletal structures is directly affected by seawater CO 2 chemistry. CO 2 influences the physiology of marine organisms as well through acid-base imbalance and reduced oxygen transport capacity. The few studies at relevant pCO 2 levels impede our ability to predict future impacts on foodweb dynamics and other ecosystem processes. Here we present new observations, review available data, and identify priorities for future research, based on regions, ecosystems, taxa, and physiological processes believed to be most vulnerable to ocean acidification. We conclude that ocean acidification and the synergistic impacts of other anthropogenic stressors provide great potential for widespread changes to marine ecosystems.

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Impacts of ocean acidification on marine fauna and ecosystem processes

Production of biochar (the carbon (C)-rich solid formed by pyrolysis of biomass) and its storage in soils have been suggested as a means of abating climate change by sequestering carbon, while simultaneously providing energy and increasing crop yields. Substantial uncertainties exist, however, regarding the impact, capacity and sustainability of biochar at the global level. In this paper we estimate the maximum sustainable technical potential of biochar to mitigate climate change. Annual net emissions of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), methane and nitrous oxide could be reduced by a maximum of 1.8 Pg CO 2 -C equivalent (CO 2 -C e ) per year (12 % of current anthropogenic CO 2 -C e emissions; 1 Pg = 1 Gt), and total net emissions over the course of a century by 130 Pg CO 2 -C e , without endangering food security, habitat or soil conservation. Biochar has a larger climate-change mitigation potential than combustion of the same sustainably procured biomass for bioenergy, except when fertile soils are amended while coal is the fuel being offset.

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Sustainable biochar to mitigate global climate change

Atmospheric reactions and slow geological processes controlled Earth's earliest nitrogen cycle, and by ~2.7 billion years ago, a linked suite of microbial processes evolved to form the modern nitrogen cycle with robust natural feedbacks and controls. Over the past century, however, the development of new agricultural practices to satisfy a growing global demand for food has drastically disrupted the nitrogen cycle. This has led to extensive eutrophication of fresh waters and coastal zones as well as increased inventories of the potent greenhouse gas nitrous oxide (N(2)O). Microbial processes will ultimately restore balance to the nitrogen cycle, but the damage done by humans to the nitrogen economy of the planet will persist for decades, possibly centuries, if active intervention and careful management strategies are not initiated.

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The evolution and future of earth's nitrogen cycle

Changes in Atmospheric Constituents and in Radiative Forcing

The Technology Readiness Level (TRL) was introduced by NASA in 1974 to measure technical maturity for deployment in space missions. It has since been widely adopted within many sectors to assess technical readiness of novel products and systems. However, TRL does not capture all the dimensions needed to assess the viability of a given product concept. Additional metrics have been proposed to measure other design parameters, but we note the lack of a comprehensive mechanism capable of assessing these parameters together. In this article we propose the Multi Index Analysis (MIA) that combins these existing metrics into one comprehensive single index. In our example we select 10 known metrics comprising 39 design dimensions to demonstrate that our approach enables multi-factor analysis that is not possible with individual metrics. We detail four general cases for the application of this index and demonstrate how valuable trend data may be used during product development to enhance engineering trade-off decisions and ultimately improve product success. We provide a software tool to enable convenient MIA assessment.

David C. Lowe

Papers

Changes in Atmospheric Constituents and in Radiative Forcing

Multi-Index Analysis with Readiness Levels for Decision Support in Product Design