David Manheim

TL;DR: In response to recommendations to redefine statistical significance to P ≤ 0.005, it is proposed that researchers should transparently report and justify all choices they make when designing a study, including the alpha level.

TL;DR: An open collaborative forecasting challenge to assess probabilistic forecasts for seasonal epidemics of dengue, a major global public health problem, revealed that average forecast skill was lower for models including biologically meaningful data and mechanisms and that both multimodel and multiteam ensemble forecasts consistently outperformed individual model forecasts.

TL;DR: This paper expands on an earlier discussion by Garrabrant, which notes there are "(at least) four different mechanisms" that relate to Goodhart's Law, and specifies more clearly how they occur.

TL;DR: This paper presents a new method for accurately including the effects of Testing, contact-Tracing and Isolation (TTI) strategies in standard compartmental models and shows that the resultant SEIR-TTI model accurately approximates the behaviour of a mechanistic agent-based model at far less computational cost.

TL;DR: It is found that HCTs are likely to be most useful for vaccine candidates currently in preclinical stages of development, and that, while currently limited in their application, there are scenarios in which H CTs would be extremely beneficial.