A review of computer tools for analysing the integration of renewable energy into various energy systems

Linked: The New Science of Networks

Understanding the drivers of energy and material flows of cities is important for addressing global environmental challenges. Accessing, sharing, and managing energy and material resources is particularly critical for megacities, which face enormous social stresses because of their sheer size and complexity. Here we quantify the energy and material flows through the world’s 27 megacities with populations greater than 10 million people as of 2010. Collectively the resource flows through megacities are largely consistent with scaling laws established in the emerging science of cities. Correlations are established for electricity consumption, heating and industrial fuel use, ground transportation energy use, water consumption, waste generation, and steel production in terms of heating-degree-days, urban form, economic activity, and population growth. The results help identify megacities exhibiting high and low levels of consumption and those making efficient use of resources. The correlation between per capita electricity use and urbanized area per capita is shown to be a consequence of gross building floor area per capita, which is found to increase for lower-density cities. Many of the megacities are growing rapidly in population but are growing even faster in terms of gross domestic product (GDP) and energy use. In the decade from 2001–2011, electricity use and ground transportation fuel use in megacities grew at approximately half the rate of GDP growth.

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Energy and material flows of megacities

An overview is presented on the last decade of geothermal heating by ground source heat pumps (GSHPs) in Europe. Significant growth rates can be observed and today's total number of GSHP systems is above 1 million, with an estimate of about 1.25 million mainly used for residential space heating in 2011. These systems are counted among renewable energy technologies, though heat pump operation typically consumes electricity and thus only a fraction of the energy produced is actually greenhouse gas (GHG) emission free. Consequently, only in the most mature markets of the Scandinavian countries and in Switzerland, calculated emission savings reach more than 1% compared to standard heatings. However, Sweden shows that more than 35% is possible, with about one third of these systems in Europe concentrated in this country. Our calculations demonstrate the crucial role of country-specific heating practices, substituted heat mix and primary electricity mix for country-specific emission savings. For the nineteen European countries studied in 2008, 3.7 Mio t CO 2 (eq.) are saved in comparison to conventional practice, which means about 0.74% on average. This reveals that many countries are at an early stage with great potential for the future, but even if the markets would be fully saturated, this average would barely climb to about 30%. These numbers, however, take the current conditions as reference, and when extrapolated to the future can be expected to improve by greener electricity production and increased heat pump performance.

Greenhouse gas emission savings of ground source heat pump systems in Europe: A review

Between 60% and 80% of global energy is consumed in urban areas and given the projected increase in world׳s urban population, this share is expected to further increase in the future. Continuity of energy supply in cities is affected by climate change and a growing array of other threats such as cyber attacks, terrorism, technical deficiencies, and market volatility. Determined efforts, acknowledging the interactions and interlinkages between energy and other sectors, are needed to avoid adverse consequences of disruption in energy supply. Resilience thinking is an approach to management of socio-ecological systems that aims to develop an integrated framework for bringing together the (often) fragmented, diverse research on disaster risk management. The literature on urban resilience is immense and still growing. This paper reviews literature related to energy resilience to develop a conceptual framework for assessing urban energy resilience, identify planning and design criteria that can be used for assessing urban energy resilience, and examine the relationship of these criteria with the underlying components of the conceptual framework. In the conceptual framework, it is proposed that in order to be resilient, urban energy system needs to be capable of “planning and preparing for”, “absorbing”, “recovering from”, and “adapting” to any adverse events that may happen in the future. Integrating these four abilities into the system would enable it to continuously address “availability”, “accessibility”, “affordability”, and “acceptability” as the four sustainability-related dimensions of energy. The paper explains different resilience principles associated with these abilities and sustainability dimensions. Also, different planning and design criteria were extracted from the literature and categorized into five themes: infrastructure; resources; land use, urban geometry and morphology; governance; and socio-demographic aspects and human behavior. Examination of the relationship of these criteria with the underlying components of the conceptual framework highlighted the complexity and multi-faceted nature of energy resilience. Exploration of the relevance of the identified criteria to climate change mitigation and adaptation revealed that most of the identified criteria can provide both mitigation and adaptation benefits.

Principles and criteria for assessing urban energy resilience: A literature review

This forum article explores thermodynamic understanding of the growth of cities, including theoretical foundations, observations, and analysis. The general theory of nonequilibrium thermodynamics is reviewed, recognizing differences in interpretation between Prigogine and Schneider and Kay as well as discussing the hypothesis of maximum entropy production. Calculations of exergy gradients in a few cities and settlements, along with measures of anthropogenic heat loss in further cities, support the notion that cities are dissipative structures. The observation that primary energy use per capita increases in Singapore and Hong Kong as they grow is further evidence to support the thermodynamic understanding of the growth of cities, indicative of an increasing rate of entropy production. At the global scale, the strong linear relationship between global urban population and total global energy use, and the distribution of city sizes according to Zipf's law, can be understood as emergent results based on thermodynamics. Parallel results might be derived from models that represent underlying microscale processes, several of which are reviewed. Issues for future research include: development of nonequilibrium thermodynamic models specific to city growth; further study of exergy flows of cities with consistent methodology, including attention to solar energy exchanges in cities; and further exploration of links between thermodynamic and economic models of urban growth.

Why Do Cities Grow? Insights from Nonequilibrium Thermodynamics at the Urban and Global Scales

Using the city of Toronto as a case study, this article examines impacts of energy stocks and flexible demand in the urban metabolism on the resilience of the city, including discussion of directions for further study of the resiliency of the urban metabolism. An important element developed is the nominal residence time of the energy stocks. This value defines how long an energy stock lasts under typical patterns of energy use. The findings suggest that the residence times of many sources of energy overcome vulnerability when energy supply shocks last on the order of hours or a few days, but that the measure is limited to assessing only certain types of commonly used energy sources in aggregate terms. Discussion is included on the uncertainty of this measure and on the metabolic and resiliency implications of new technologies intended to reduce energy use and improve sustainability of cities and the use of the urban metabolism as a means of comparison. The methodology employed highlights how waste energy could be used to increase the resiliency of the city's water supply, but also how the study of the urban metabolism would benefit from a more disaggregate form in the study of sustainable and resilient cities.

Urban metabolism and the energy stored in cities: : Implications for resilience

Evaluation of region-specific residential energy systems for GHG reductions: Case studies in Canadian cities

Indirect consequences to shocks and stresses are mounting globally. Estimating and developing plans to treat these risks remains a challenge. The difficulty is determining ahead of time how the losses, and the potential resolutions, might propagate through the interactions of complex connected systems of systems when generally only high-level temporal statistics are available. In this paper, a novel graph model coupled with a maximum entropy likelihood estimator are proposed to map the complex interactions and to assess the statistics resulting from different initiating scenarios. The method involves defining initial conditions from all-hazards effects, followed by generation of event sequences from the high-level statistics, to estimate probabilities of different outcomes after a shock or stress. In this way, a general method is devised to assess indirect consequence in operational loss terms and to assess the merits of risk treatment options. Incorporating these indirect consequence calculations...

Graph Model for Probabilistic Resilience and Recovery Planning of Multi-Infrastructure Systems

In 2012, the City of Toronto Environment Office undertook a resilience assessment project with the objective of understanding critical infrastructure interdependencies, to create a platform for stakeholder collaboration on issues related to extreme events, and to improve the city’s ability to survive and recover from extreme events efficiently. Herein this project is reviewed for its large contribution to the planning of urban resilience through the construction and analysis of dependencies of core city functions. This structure is generalised and formalised into a repeatable methodological form invoking the unique attributes of the vitae (of life) system of systems formalism to link urban resilience planning to the fundamentals of survival, vitality and conviviality as desirable outputs of integrated disaster management and of urban planning and asset management for sustainable urban communities.

David N. Bristow

Papers

Why Do Cities Grow? Insights from Nonequilibrium Thermodynamics at the Urban and Global Scales

Urban metabolism and the energy stored in cities: : Implications for resilience

Evaluation of region-specific residential energy systems for GHG reductions: Case studies in Canadian cities

Graph Model for Probabilistic Resilience and Recovery Planning of Multi-Infrastructure Systems

Asset system of systems resilience planning: the Toronto case