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David Nogués-Bravo

Bio: David Nogués-Bravo is an academic researcher from University of Copenhagen. The author has contributed to research in topics: Climate change & Biodiversity. The author has an hindex of 38, co-authored 67 publications receiving 7362 citations. Previous affiliations of David Nogués-Bravo include American Museum of Natural History & University of Évora.


Papers
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Journal ArticleDOI
04 Jan 2013-Science
TL;DR: A global map of zoogeographic regions is generated by combining data on the distributions and phylogenetic relationships of 21,037 species of amphibians, birds, and mammals, and it is shown that spatial turnover in the phylogenetic composition of vertebrate assemblages is higher in the Southern than in the Northern Hemisphere.
Abstract: Modern attempts to produce biogeographic maps focus on the distribution of species, and the maps are typically drawn without phylogenetic considerations. Here, we generate a global map of zoogeographic regions by combining data on the distributions and phylogenetic relationships of 21,037 species of amphibians, birds, and mammals. We identify 20 distinct zoogeographic regions, which are grouped into 11 larger realms. We document the lack of support for several regions previously defined based on distributional data and show that spatial turnover in the phylogenetic composition of vertebrate assemblages is higher in the Southern than in the Northern Hemisphere. We further show that the integration of phylogenetic information provides valuable insight on historical relationships among regions, permitting the identification of evolutionarily unique regions of the world.

1,014 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The effectiveness of protected areas and the Natura 2000 network in conserving a large proportion of European plant and terrestrial vertebrate species under climate change is assessed and the risk is high that ongoing efforts to conserve Europe's biodiversity are jeopardized by climate change.
Abstract: Ecology Letters (2011) 14: 484–492 Abstract Europe has the world’s most extensive network of conservation areas. Conservation areas are selected without taking into account the effects of climate change. How effectively would such areas conserve biodiversity under climate change? We assess the effectiveness of protected areas and the Natura 2000 network in conserving a large proportion of European plant and terrestrial vertebrate species under climate change. We found that by 2080, 58 ± 2.6% of the species would lose suitable climate in protected areas, whereas losses affected 63 ± 2.1% of the species of European concern occurring in Natura 2000 areas. Protected areas are expected to retain climatic suitability for species better than unprotected areas (P < 0.001), but Natura 2000 areas retain climate suitability for species no better and sometimes less effectively than unprotected areas. The risk is high that ongoing efforts to conserve Europe’s biodiversity are jeopardized by climate change. New policies are required to avert this risk.

754 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
17 Nov 2011-Nature
TL;DR: It is shown that climate has been a major driver of population change over the past 50,000 years, however, each species responds differently to the effects of climatic shifts, habitat redistribution and human encroachment.
Abstract: Despite decades of research, the roles of climate and humans in driving the dramatic extinctions of large-bodied mammals during the Late Quaternary period remain contentious. Here we use ancient DNA, species distribution models and the human fossil record to elucidate how climate and humans shaped the demographic history of woolly rhinoceros, woolly mammoth, wild horse, reindeer, bison and musk ox. We show that climate has been a major driver of population change over the past 50,000 years. However, each species responds differently to the effects of climatic shifts, habitat redistribution and human encroachment. Although climate change alone can explain the extinction of some species, such as Eurasian musk ox and woolly rhinoceros, a combination of climatic and anthropogenic effects appears to be responsible for the extinction of others, including Eurasian steppe bison and wild horse. We find no genetic signature or any distinctive range dynamics distinguishing extinct from surviving species, emphasizing the challenges associated with predicting future responses of extant mammals to climate and human-mediated habitat change.

582 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors provide an assessment of surface temperature changes in mountainous areas of the world using a set of climate projections at a 0.5° resolution for two 30-year periods (2040-2069 and 2070-2099), using four Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) emission scenarios and five AOGCM.
Abstract: We provide an assessment of surface temperature changes in mountainous areas of the world using a set of climate projections at a 0.5° resolution for two 30-year periods (2040–2069 and 2070–2099), using four Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) emission scenarios and five AOGCM. Projected average temperature changes varied between +3.2 °C (+0.4 °C/per decade) and +2.1 °C (+0.26 °C/per decade) for 2055 and +5.3 °C (+0.48 °C/per decade) and +2.8 °C for 2085 (+0.25 °C/per decade). The temperature is expected to rise by a greater amount in higher northern latitude mountains than in mountains located in temperate and tropical zones. The rate of warming in mountain systems is projected to be two to three times higher than that recorded during the 20th century. The tendency for a greater projected warming in northern latitude mountain systems is consistent across scenarios and is in agreement with observed trends. In light of these projections, warming is considered likely to affect biodiversity (e.g., species extinctions, changes in the composition of assemblages), water resources (e.g., a reduction in the extent of glaciated areas and snow pack), and natural hazards (e.g., floods). Accurate estimate of the effects of climate change in mountain systems is difficult because of uncertainties associated with the climate scenarios and the existence of non-linear feedbacks between impacts.

555 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors assess the impacts of climate change on 2632 plant species across all major European mountain ranges, using high-resolution (ca. 100 m) species samples and data expressing four future climate scenarios.
Abstract: Continental-scale assessments of 21st century global impacts of climate change on biodiversity have forecasted range contractions for many species. These coarse resolution studies are, however, of limited relevance for projecting risks to biodiversity in mountain systems, where pronounced microclimatic variation could allow species to persist locally, and are ill-suited for assessment of species-specific threat in particular regions. Here, we assess the impacts of climate change on 2632 plant species across all major European mountain ranges, using high-resolution (ca. 100 m) species samples and data expressing four future climate scenarios. Projected habitat loss is greater for species distributed at higher elevations; depending on the climate scenario, we find 36-55% of alpine species, 31-51% of subalpine species and 19-46% of montane species lose more than 80% of their suitable habitat by 2070-2100. While our high-resolution analyses consistently indicate marked levels of threat to cold-adapted mountain florae across Europe, they also reveal unequal distribution of this threat across the various mountain ranges. Impacts on florae from regions projected to undergo increased warming accompanied by decreased precipitation, such as the Pyrenees and the Eastern Austrian Alps, will likely be greater than on florae in regions where the increase in temperature is less pronounced and rainfall increases concomitantly, such as in the Norwegian Scandes and the Scottish Highlands. This suggests that change in precipitation, not only warming, plays an important role in determining the potential impacts of climate change on vegetation.

541 citations


Cited by
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28 Jul 2005
TL;DR: PfPMP1)与感染红细胞、树突状组胞以及胎盘的单个或多个受体作用,在黏附及免疫逃避中起关键的作�ly.
Abstract: 抗原变异可使得多种致病微生物易于逃避宿主免疫应答。表达在感染红细胞表面的恶性疟原虫红细胞表面蛋白1(PfPMP1)与感染红细胞、内皮细胞、树突状细胞以及胎盘的单个或多个受体作用,在黏附及免疫逃避中起关键的作用。每个单倍体基因组var基因家族编码约60种成员,通过启动转录不同的var基因变异体为抗原变异提供了分子基础。

18,940 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: Preface to the Princeton Landmarks in Biology Edition vii Preface xi Symbols used xiii 1.
Abstract: Preface to the Princeton Landmarks in Biology Edition vii Preface xi Symbols Used xiii 1. The Importance of Islands 3 2. Area and Number of Speicies 8 3. Further Explanations of the Area-Diversity Pattern 19 4. The Strategy of Colonization 68 5. Invasibility and the Variable Niche 94 6. Stepping Stones and Biotic Exchange 123 7. Evolutionary Changes Following Colonization 145 8. Prospect 181 Glossary 185 References 193 Index 201

14,171 citations

Journal Article
TL;DR: In this paper, a documento: "Cambiamenti climatici 2007: impatti, adattamento e vulnerabilita" voteato ad aprile 2007 dal secondo gruppo di lavoro del Comitato Intergovernativo sui Cambiamentsi Climatici (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change).
Abstract: Impatti, adattamento e vulnerabilita Le cause e le responsabilita dei cambiamenti climatici sono state trattate sul numero di ottobre della rivista Cda. Approfondiamo l’argomento presentando il documento: “Cambiamenti climatici 2007: impatti, adattamento e vulnerabilita” votato ad aprile 2007 dal secondo gruppo di lavoro del Comitato Intergovernativo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). Si tratta del secondo di tre documenti che compongono il quarto rapporto sui cambiamenti climatici.

3,979 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: Overall, this review shows that current estimates of future biodiversity are very variable, depending on the method, taxonomic group, biodiversity loss metrics, spatial scales and time periods considered.
Abstract: Many studies in recent years have investigated the effects of climate change on the future of biodiversity. In this review, we first examine the different possible effects of climate change that can operate at individual, population, species, community, ecosystem and biome scales, notably showing that species can respond to climate change challenges by shifting their climatic niche along three non-exclusive axes: time (e.g. phenology), space (e.g. range) and self (e.g. physiology). Then, we present the principal specificities and caveats of the most common approaches used to estimate future biodiversity at global and sub-continental scales and we synthesise their results. Finally, we highlight several challenges for future research both in theoretical and applied realms. Overall, our review shows that current estimates are very variable, depending on the method, taxonomic group, biodiversity loss metrics, spatial scales and time periods considered. Yet, the majority of models indicate alarming consequences for biodiversity, with the worst-case scenarios leading to extinction rates that would qualify as the sixth mass extinction in the history of the earth.

2,834 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, a unified framework for the assessment of beta diversity, disentangling the contribution of spatial turnover and nestedness to beta-diversity patterns, is provided, which is crucial for our understanding of central biogeographic, ecological and conservation issues.
Abstract: Aim Beta diversity (variation of the species composition of assemblages) may reflect two different phenomena, spatial species turnover and nestedness of assemblages, which result from two antithetic processes, namely species replacement and species loss, respectively. The aim of this paper is to provide a unified framework for the assessment of beta diversity, disentangling the contribution of spatial turnover and nestedness to beta-diversity patterns. Innovation I derive an additive partitioning of beta diversity that provides the two separate components of spatial turnover and nestedness underlying the total amount of beta diversity. I propose two families of measures of beta diversity for pairwise and multiple-site situations. Each family comprises one measure accounting for all aspects of beta diversity, which is additively decomposed into two measures accounting for the pure spatial turnover and nestedness components, respectively. Finally, I provide a case study using European longhorn beetles to exemplify the relevance of disentangling spatial turnover and nestedness patterns. Main conclusion Assigning the different beta-diversity patterns to their respective biological phenomena is essential for analysing the causality of the processes underlying biodiversity. Thus, the differentiation of the spatial turnover and nestedness components of beta diversity is crucial for our understanding of central biogeographic, ecological and conservation issues.

2,364 citations