Statistics and Data Analysis in Geology

Summary
Fluvial landforms and deposits provide one of the most readily studied Quaternary continental records, and alluvial strata represent an important component in most ancient continental interior and continental margin successions. Moreover, studies of the long-term dynamics of fluvial systems and their responses to external or ‘allogenic' controls, can play important roles in research concerning both global change and sequence-stratigraphy, as well as in studies of the dynamic interactions between tectonic activity and surface processes. These themes were energized in the final decades of the twentieth century, and may become increasingly important in the first decades of this millennium.

This review paper provides a historical perspective on the development of ideas in the fields of geomorphology/Quaternary geology vs. sedimentary geology, and then summarizes key processes that operate to produce alluvial stratigraphic records over time-scales of 103−106 years. Of particular interest are changes in discharge regimes, sediment supply and sediment storage en route from source terrains to sedimentary basins, as well as changes in sea-level and the concept of accommodation. Late Quaternary stratigraphic records from the Loire (France), Mississippi (USA), Colorado (Texas, USA) and Rhine–Meuse (The Netherlands) Rivers are used to illustrate the influences of climate change on continental interior rivers, as well as the influence of interacting climate and sea-level change on continental margin systems.

The paper concludes with a look forward to a bright future for studies of fluvial response to climate and sea-level change. At present, empirical field-based research on fluvial response to climate and sea-level change lags behind: (a) the global change community's understanding of the magnitude and frequency of climate and sea-level change; (b) the sequence-stratigraphic community's desire to interpret climate and, especially, sea-level change as forcing mechanisms; and (c) the modelling community's ability to generate numerical and physical models of surface processes and their stratigraphic results. A major challenge for the future is to catch up, which will require the development of more detailed and sophisticated Quaternary stratigraphic, sedimentological and geochronological frameworks in a variety of continental interior and continental margin settings. There is a particular need for studies that seek to document fluvial responses to allogenic forcing over both shorter (102−103 years) and longer (104−106 years) time-scales than has commonly been the case to date, as well as in larger river systems, from source to sink. Studies of Quaternary systems in depositional basin settings are especially critical because they can provide realistic analogues for interpretation of the pre-Quaternary rock record.

Fluvial responses to climate and sea‐level change: a review and look forward

We present a new time-slice reconstruction of the Eurasian ice sheets (British–Irish, Svalbard–Barents–Kara Seas and Scandinavian) documenting the spatial evolution of these interconnected ice sheets every 1000 years from 25 to 10 ka, and at four selected time periods back to 40 ka. The time-slice maps of ice-sheet extent are based on a new Geographical Information System (GIS) database, where we have collected published numerical dates constraining the timing of ice-sheet advance and retreat, and additionally geomorphological and geological evidence contained within the existing literature. We integrate all uncertainty estimates into three ice-margin lines for each time-slice; a most-credible line, derived from our assessment of all available evidence, with bounding maximum and minimum limits allowed by existing data. This approach was motivated by the demands of glaciological, isostatic and climate modelling and to clearly display limitations in knowledge. The timing of advance and retreat were both remarkably spatially variable across the ice-sheet area. According to our compilation the westernmost limit along the British–Irish and Norwegian continental shelf was reached up to 7000 years earlier (at c. 27–26 ka) than the eastern limit on the Russian Plain (at c. 20–19 ka). The Eurasian ice sheet complex as a whole attained its maximum extent (5.5 Mkm2) and volume (~24 m Sea Level Equivalent) at c. 21 ka. Our continental-scale approach highlights instances of conflicting evidence and gaps in the ice-sheet chronology where uncertainties remain large and should be a focus for future research. Largest uncertainties coincide with locations presently below sea level and where contradicting evidence exists. This first version of the database and time-slices (DATED-1) has a census date of 1 January 2013 and both are available to download via the Bjerknes Climate Data Centre and PANGAEA (www.bcdc.no; http://doi.pangaea.de/10.1594/PANGAEA.848117).

The last Eurasian ice sheets - a chronological database and time-slice reconstruction, DATED-1

With polar temperatures ∼3–5 °C warmer than today, the last interglacial stage (∼125 kyr ago) serves as a partial analogue for 1–2 °C global warming scenarios. Geological records from several sites indicate that local sea levels during the last interglacial were higher than today, but because local sea levels differ from global sea level, accurately reconstructing past global sea level requires an integrated analysis of globally distributed data sets. Here we present an extensive compilation of local sea level indicators and a statistical approach for estimating global sea level, local sea levels, ice sheet volumes and their associated uncertainties. We find a 95% probability that global sea level peaked at least 6.6 m higher than today during the last interglacial; it is likely (67% probability) to have exceeded 8.0 m but is unlikely (33% probability) to have exceeded 9.4 m. When global sea level was close to its current level (≥-10 m), the millennial average rate of global sea level rise is very likely to have exceeded 5.6 m kyr-1 but is unlikely to have exceeded 9.2 m kyr-1. Our analysis extends previous last interglacial sea level studies by integrating literature observations within a probabilistic framework that accounts for the physics of sea level change. The results highlight the long-term vulnerability of ice sheets to even relatively low levels of sustained global warming. Sea levels at the last interglacial, about 125,000 years ago, were higher and polar temperatures up to 5 °C warmer than today, so the period is seen as a partial analogue for what could happen in the event of anthropogenic warming. Kopp et al. assemble a global database of local sea level rise indicators and use a statistical treatment to estimate global sea level rise during the last interglacial. They find that global sea level was probably 8 to 9.4 metres above present levels, with the rate of sea level rise exceeding 50 cm per century. This suggests that today's ice sheets would be vulnerable to relatively low levels of global warming. Sea levels during the last interglacial stage (about 125 kyr ago) are known to have been higher than today, and may serve as a partial analogue for anthropogenic warming scenarios. However, because local sea levels differ from global sea level, accurately reconstructing past global sea level requires an integrated analysis of globally distributed data sets. An extensive compilation of local sea level indicators and a statistical approach are now used to estimate global sea level during the last interglacial.

Probabilistic assessment of sea level during the last interglacial stage

Ichnology is the study of traces created in the substrate by living organisms. This is the first book to systematically cover basic concepts and applications in both paleobiology and sedimentology, bridging the gap between the two main facets of the field. It emphasizes the importance of understanding ecologic controls on benthic fauna distribution and the role of burrowing organisms in changing their environments. A detailed analysis of the ichnology of a range of depositional environments is presented using examples from the Precambrian to the recent, and the use of trace fossils in facies analysis and sequence stratigraphy is discussed. The potential for biogenic structures to provide valuable information and solve problems in a wide range of fields is also highlighted. An invaluable resource for researchers and graduate students in paleontology, sedimentology and sequence stratigraphy, this book will also be of interest to industry professionals working in petroleum geoscience.

Ichnology: Organism-Substrate Interactions in Space and Time

Climatically controlled river terrace staircases: A worldwide Quaternary phenomenon

River terrace systems in north-west Europe: an archive of environmental change, uplift and early human occupation

The Pleistocene of the Thames the upper Thames basin the middle Thames the lower Thames Essex.

David R. Bridgland

Papers

Climatically controlled river terrace staircases: A worldwide Quaternary phenomenon

River terrace systems in north-west Europe: an archive of environmental change, uplift and early human occupation

Quaternary of the Thames

Uplift-driven valley incision and climate-controlled river terrace development in the Thames Valley, UK

The Quaternary uplift history of central southern England : evidence from the terraces of the Solent River system and nearby raised beaches.