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David Salas y Mélia

Other affiliations: University of Toulouse
Bio: David Salas y Mélia is an academic researcher from Centre national de la recherche scientifique. The author has contributed to research in topics: Sea ice & Arctic ice pack. The author has an hindex of 17, co-authored 28 publications receiving 1455 citations. Previous affiliations of David Salas y Mélia include University of Toulouse.

Papers
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Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: Simulation characteristics from eighteen global ocean-sea-ice coupled models are presented with a focus on the mean Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and other related fields in the North Atlantic as discussed by the authors.

368 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: A review of the potential sources of Arctic sea-ice predictability on these time-scales is presented in this paper, where the inherent potential predictability limit with state-of-the-art models is estimated, together with their performance.
Abstract: Sea ice plays a crucial role in the Earth's energy and water budget and has a substantial impact on local and remote atmospheric and oceanic circulations. Predictions of Arctic sea-ice conditions a few months to a few years in advance could be of interest for stakeholders. This article presents a review of the potential sources of Arctic sea-ice predictability on these time-scales. Predictability mainly originates from persistence or advection of sea-ice anomalies, interactions with the ocean and atmosphere and changes in radiative forcing. After estimating the inherent potential predictability limit with state-of-the-art models, current sea-ice forecast systems are described, together with their performance. Finally, some challenges and issues in sea-ice forecasting are presented, along with suggestions for future research priorities.

206 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: Danabasoglu et al. as discussed by the authors presented simulated inter-annual to decadal variability and trends in the North Atlantic for the 1958-2007 period from twenty global ocean-ice coupled models.

146 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, a multi-model analysis of Atlantic multidecadal variability is performed with the following aims: to investigate the similarities to observations; to assess the strength and relative importance of the different elements of the mechanism proposed by Delworth et al. (J Clim 6:1993-2011, 1993) (hereafter D93) among coupled general circulation models (CGCMs); and to relate model differences to mean systematic error.
Abstract: A multi-model analysis of Atlantic multidecadal variability is performed with the following aims: to investigate the similarities to observations; to assess the strength and relative importance of the different elements of the mechanism proposed by Delworth et al. (J Clim 6:1993–2011, 1993) (hereafter D93) among coupled general circulation models (CGCMs); and to relate model differences to mean systematic error. The analysis is performed with long control simulations from ten CGCMs, with lengths ranging between 500 and 3600 years. In most models the variations of sea surface temperature (SST) averaged over North Atlantic show considerable power on multidecadal time scales, but with different periodicity. The SST variations are largest in the mid-latitude region, consistent with the short instrumental record. Despite large differences in model configurations, we find quite some consistency among the models in terms of processes. In eight of the ten models the mid-latitude SST variations are significantly correlated with fluctuations in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), suggesting a link to northward heat transport changes. Consistent with this link, the three models with the weakest AMOC have the largest cold SST bias in the North Atlantic. There is no linear relationship on decadal timescales between AMOC and North Atlantic Oscillation in the models. Analysis of the key elements of the D93 mechanisms revealed the following: Most models present strong evidence that high-latitude winter mixing precede AMOC changes. However, the regions of wintertime convection differ among models. In most models salinity-induced density anomalies in the convective region tend to lead AMOC, while temperature-induced density anomalies lead AMOC only in one model. However, analysis shows that salinity may play an overly important role in most models, because of cold temperature biases in their relevant convective regions. In most models subpolar gyre variations tend to lead AMOC changes, and this relation is strong in more than half of the models.

127 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors provide an assessment of sea level simulated in a suite of global ocean-sea ice models using the interannual CORE atmospheric state to determine surface ocean boundary buoyancy and momentum fluxes.

126 citations


Cited by
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TL;DR: In this paper, a documento: "Cambiamenti climatici 2007: impatti, adattamento e vulnerabilita" voteato ad aprile 2007 dal secondo gruppo di lavoro del Comitato Intergovernativo sui Cambiamentsi Climatici (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change).
Abstract: Impatti, adattamento e vulnerabilita Le cause e le responsabilita dei cambiamenti climatici sono state trattate sul numero di ottobre della rivista Cda. Approfondiamo l’argomento presentando il documento: “Cambiamenti climatici 2007: impatti, adattamento e vulnerabilita” votato ad aprile 2007 dal secondo gruppo di lavoro del Comitato Intergovernativo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). Si tratta del secondo di tre documenti che compongono il quarto rapporto sui cambiamenti climatici.

3,979 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: A copy of the Guangbo jiemu bao [Broadcast Program Report] was being passed from hand to hand among a group of young people eager to be the first to read the article introducing the program "What Is Revolutionary Love?".
Abstract: A copy of Guangbo jiemu bao [Broadcast Program Report] was being passed from hand to hand among a group of young people eager to be the first to read the article introducing the program "What Is Revolutionary Love?" It said: "… Young friends, you are certainly very concerned about this problem'. So, we would like you to meet the young women workers Meng Xiaoyu and Meng Yamei and the older cadre Miss Feng. They are the three leading characters in the short story ‘The Place of Love.’ Through the description of the love lives of these three, the story induces us to think deeply about two questions that merit further examination.

1,528 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
University of East Anglia1, University of Oslo2, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation3, University of Exeter4, Oak Ridge National Laboratory5, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration6, Woods Hole Research Center7, University of California, San Diego8, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology9, Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies10, Centre national de la recherche scientifique11, University of Maryland, College Park12, National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research13, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution14, Flanders Marine Institute15, Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research16, Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency17, University of Illinois at Urbana–Champaign18, Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences19, Max Planck Society20, University of Paris21, Hobart Corporation22, Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research23, University of Bern24, National Center for Atmospheric Research25, University of Miami26, Council of Scientific and Industrial Research27, University of Colorado Boulder28, National Institute for Environmental Studies29, Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean30, Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen31, Goddard Space Flight Center32, Montana State University33, University of New Hampshire34, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research35, Imperial College London36, Lamont–Doherty Earth Observatory37, Auburn University38, Wageningen University and Research Centre39, VU University Amsterdam40, Met Office41
TL;DR: In this article, the authors quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics, and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community.
Abstract: . Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere – the “global carbon budget” – is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics, and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates and consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, respectively, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in SOCEAN is evaluated with data products based on surveys of ocean CO2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent dynamic global vegetation models. We compare the mean land and ocean fluxes and their variability to estimates from three atmospheric inverse methods for three broad latitude bands. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ, reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. For the last decade available (2006–2015), EFF was 9.3 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, ELUC 1.0 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, GATM 4.5 ± 0.1 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN 2.6 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND 3.1 ± 0.9 GtC yr−1. For year 2015 alone, the growth in EFF was approximately zero and emissions remained at 9.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, showing a slowdown in growth of these emissions compared to the average growth of 1.8 % yr−1 that took place during 2006–2015. Also, for 2015, ELUC was 1.3 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, GATM was 6.3 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN was 3.0 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 1.9 ± 0.9 GtC yr−1. GATM was higher in 2015 compared to the past decade (2006–2015), reflecting a smaller SLAND for that year. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 399.4 ± 0.1 ppm averaged over 2015. For 2016, preliminary data indicate the continuation of low growth in EFF with +0.2 % (range of −1.0 to +1.8 %) based on national emissions projections for China and USA, and projections of gross domestic product corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy for the rest of the world. In spite of the low growth of EFF in 2016, the growth rate in atmospheric CO2 concentration is expected to be relatively high because of the persistence of the smaller residual terrestrial sink (SLAND) in response to El Nino conditions of 2015–2016. From this projection of EFF and assumed constant ELUC for 2016, cumulative emissions of CO2 will reach 565 ± 55 GtC (2075 ± 205 GtCO2) for 1870–2016, about 75 % from EFF and 25 % from ELUC. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new carbon budget compared with previous publications of this data set (Le Quere et al., 2015b, a, 2014, 2013). All observations presented here can be downloaded from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center ( doi:10.3334/CDIAC/GCP_2016 ).

1,224 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: A new version of the general circulation model CNRM-CM has been developed jointly by CNRMs-GAME (Centre National de Recherches Meteorologiques-Groupe d'etudes de l’Atmosphere Meteorologique) and Cerfacs as discussed by the authors in order to contribute to phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5).
Abstract: A new version of the general circulation model CNRM-CM has been developed jointly by CNRM-GAME (Centre National de Recherches Meteorologiques—Groupe d’etudes de l’Atmosphere Meteorologique) and Cerfacs (Centre Europeen de Recherche et de Formation Avancee) in order to contribute to phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The purpose of the study is to describe its main features and to provide a preliminary assessment of its mean climatology. CNRM-CM5.1 includes the atmospheric model ARPEGE-Climat (v5.2), the ocean model NEMO (v3.2), the land surface scheme ISBA and the sea ice model GELATO (v5) coupled through the OASIS (v3) system. The main improvements since CMIP3 are the following. Horizontal resolution has been increased both in the atmosphere (from 2.8° to 1.4°) and in the ocean (from 2° to 1°). The dynamical core of the atmospheric component has been revised. A new radiation scheme has been introduced and the treatments of tropospheric and stratospheric aerosols have been improved. Particular care has been devoted to ensure mass/water conservation in the atmospheric component. The land surface scheme ISBA has been externalised from the atmospheric model through the SURFEX platform and includes new developments such as a parameterization of sub-grid hydrology, a new freezing scheme and a new bulk parameterisation for ocean surface fluxes. The ocean model is based on the state-of-the-art version of NEMO, which has greatly progressed since the OPA8.0 version used in the CMIP3 version of CNRM-CM. Finally, the coupling between the different components through OASIS has also received a particular attention to avoid energy loss and spurious drifts. These developments generally lead to a more realistic representation of the mean recent climate and to a reduction of drifts in a preindustrial integration. The large-scale dynamics is generally improved both in the atmosphere and in the ocean, and the bias in mean surface temperature is clearly reduced. However, some flaws remain such as significant precipitation and radiative biases in many regions, or a pronounced drift in three dimensional salinity.

1,193 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors used the most recent simulations performed in the framework of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 to assess how these stressors may evolve over the course of the 21st century.
Abstract: Ocean ecosystems are increasingly stressed by human-induced changes of their physical, chemical and biological environment. Among these changes, warming, acidification, deoxygenation and changes in primary productivity by marine phytoplankton can be considered as four of the major stressors of open ocean ecosystems. Due to rising atmospheric CO 2 in the coming decades, these changes will be amplified. Here, we use the most recent simulations performed in the framework of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 to assess how these stressors may evolve over the course of the 21st century. The 10 Earth system models used here project similar trends in ocean warming, acidification, deoxygenation and reduced primary productivity for each of the IPCC's representative concentration pathways (RCPs) over the 21st century. For the "business-as-usual" scenario RCP8.5, the model-mean changes in the 2090s (compared to the 1990s) for sea surface temperature, sea surface pH, global O 2 content and integrated primary productivity amount to p2.73 (±0.72) °C, −0.33 (±0.003) pH unit, −3.45 (±0.44)% and −8.6 (±7.9)%, respectively. For the high mitigation scenario RCP2.6, corresponding changes are +0.71 (±0.45) °C, −0.07 (±0.001) pH unit, −1.81 (±0.31)% and −2.0 (±4.1)%, respectively, illustrating the effectiveness of extreme mitigation strategies. Although these stressors operate globally, they display distinct regional patterns and thus do not change coincidentally. Large decreases in O 2 and in pH are simulated in global ocean intermediate and mode waters, whereas large reductions in primary production are simulated in the tropics and in the North Atlantic. Although temperature and pH projections are robust across models, the same does not hold for projections of subsurface O 2 concentrations in the tropics and global and regional changes in net primary productivity. These high uncertainties in projections of primary productivity and subsurface oxygen prompt us to continue inter-model comparisons to understand these model differences, while calling for caution when using the CMIP5 models to force regional impact models.

1,147 citations