Showing papers by "Debbie A Lawlor published in 2017"

Triangulation in aetiological epidemiology.

Abstract: Triangulation is the practice of obtaining more reliable answers to research questions through integrating results from several different approaches, where each approach has different key sources of potential bias that are unrelated to each other. With respect to causal questions in aetiological epidemiology, if the results of different approaches all point to the same conclusion, this strengthens confidence in the finding. This is particularly the case when the key sources of bias of some of the approaches would predict that findings would point in opposite directions if they were due to such biases. Where there are inconsistencies, understanding the key sources of bias of each approach can help to identify what further research is required to address the causal question. The aim of this paper is to illustrate how triangulation might be used to improve causal inference in aetiological epidemiology. We propose a minimum set of criteria for use in triangulation in aetiological epidemiology, summarize the key sources of bias of several approaches and describe how these might be integrated within a triangulation framework. We emphasize the importance of being explicit about the expected direction of bias within each approach, whenever this is possible, and seeking to identify approaches that would be expected to bias the true causal effect in different directions. We also note the importance, when comparing results, of taking account of differences in the duration and timing of exposures. We provide three examples to illustrate these points.

Genomic analyses identify hundreds of variants associated with age at menarche and support a role for puberty timing in cancer risk

Abstract: The timing of puberty is a highly polygenic childhood trait that is epidemiologically associated with various adult diseases. Using 1000 Genomes Project-imputed genotype data in up to ∼370,000 women, we identify 389 independent signals (P < 5 × 10-8) for age at menarche, a milestone in female pubertal development. In Icelandic data, these signals explain ∼7.4% of the population variance in age at menarche, corresponding to ∼25% of the estimated heritability. We implicate ∼250 genes via coding variation or associated expression, demonstrating significant enrichment in neural tissues. Rare variants near the imprinted genes MKRN3 and DLK1 were identified, exhibiting large effects when paternally inherited. Mendelian randomization analyses suggest causal inverse associations, independent of body mass index (BMI), between puberty timing and risks for breast and endometrial cancers in women and prostate cancer in men. In aggregate, our findings highlight the complexity of the genetic regulation of puberty timing and support causal links with cancer susceptibility.

Quantitative Serum Nuclear Magnetic Resonance Metabolomics in Large-Scale Epidemiology: A Primer on -Omic Technologies.

Abstract: Detailed metabolic profiling in large-scale epidemiologic studies has uncovered novel biomarkers for cardiometabolic diseases and clarified the molecular associations of established risk factors. A quantitative metabolomics platform based on nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy has found widespread use, already profiling over 400,000 blood samples. Over 200 metabolic measures are quantified per sample; in addition to many biomarkers routinely used in epidemiology, the method simultaneously provides fine-grained lipoprotein subclass profiling and quantification of circulating fatty acids, amino acids, gluconeogenesis-related metabolites, and many other molecules from multiple metabolic pathways. Here we focus on applications of magnetic resonance metabolomics for quantifying circulating biomarkers in large-scale epidemiology. We highlight the molecular characterization of risk factors, use of Mendelian randomization, and the key issues of study design and analyses of metabolic profiling for epidemiology. We also detail how integration of metabolic profiling data with genetics can enhance drug development. We discuss why quantitative metabolic profiling is becoming widespread in epidemiology and biobanking. Although large-scale applications of metabolic profiling are still novel, it seems likely that comprehensive biomarker data will contribute to etiologic understanding of various diseases and abilities to predict disease risks, with the potential to translate into multiple clinical settings.

Genome-wide association analyses of sleep disturbance traits identify new loci and highlight shared genetics with neuropsychiatric and metabolic traits

Abstract: Chronic sleep disturbances, associated with cardiometabolic diseases, psychiatric disorders and all-cause mortality, affect 25-30% of adults worldwide. Although environmental factors contribute substantially to self-reported habitual sleep duration and disruption, these traits are heritable and identification of the genes involved should improve understanding of sleep, mechanisms linking sleep to disease and development of new therapies. We report single- and multiple-trait genome-wide association analyses of self-reported sleep duration, insomnia symptoms and excessive daytime sleepiness in the UK Biobank (n = 112,586). We discover loci associated with insomnia symptoms (near MEIS1, TMEM132E, CYCL1 and TGFBI in females and WDR27 in males), excessive daytime sleepiness (near AR-OPHN1) and a composite sleep trait (near PATJ (INADL) and HCRTR2) and replicate a locus associated with sleep duration (at PAX8). We also observe genetic correlation between longer sleep duration and schizophrenia risk (rg = 0.29, P = 1.90 × 10-13) and between increased levels of excessive daytime sleepiness and increased measures for adiposity traits (body mass index (BMI): rg = 0.20, P = 3.12 × 10-9; waist circumference: rg = 0.20, P = 2.12 × 10-7).

Causal Associations of Adiposity and Body Fat Distribution With Coronary Heart Disease, Stroke Subtypes, and Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus: A Mendelian Randomization Analysis

Abstract: Background: The implications of different adiposity measures on cardiovascular disease etiology remain unclear. In this article, we quantify and contrast causal associations of central adiposity (waist-to-hip ratio adjusted for body mass index [WHRadjBMI]) and general adiposity (body mass index [BMI]) with cardiometabolic disease. Methods: Ninety-seven independent single-nucleotide polymorphisms for BMI and 49 single-nucleotide polymorphisms for WHRadjBMI were used to conduct Mendelian randomization analyses in 14 prospective studies supplemented with coronary heart disease (CHD) data from CARDIoGRAMplusC4D (Coronary Artery Disease Genome-wide Replication and Meta-analysis [CARDIoGRAM] plus The Coronary Artery Disease [C4D] Genetics; combined total 66 842 cases), stroke from METASTROKE (12 389 ischemic stroke cases), type 2 diabetes mellitus from DIAGRAM (Diabetes Genetics Replication and Meta-analysis; 34 840 cases), and lipids from GLGC (Global Lipids Genetic Consortium; 213 500 participants) consortia. Primary outcomes were CHD, type 2 diabetes mellitus, and major stroke subtypes; secondary analyses included 18 cardiometabolic traits. Results: Each one standard deviation (SD) higher WHRadjBMI (1 SD≈0.08 U) associated with a 48% excess risk of CHD (odds ratio [OR] for CHD, 1.48; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.28–1.71), similar to findings for BMI (1 SD≈4.6 kg/m 2 ; OR for CHD, 1.36; 95% CI, 1.22–1.52). Only WHRadjBMI increased risk of ischemic stroke (OR, 1.32; 95% CI, 1.03–1.70). For type 2 diabetes mellitus, both measures had large effects: OR, 1.82 (95% CI, 1.38–2.42) and OR, 1.98 (95% CI, 1.41–2.78) per 1 SD higher WHRadjBMI and BMI, respectively. Both WHRadjBMI and BMI were associated with higher left ventricular hypertrophy, glycemic traits, interleukin 6, and circulating lipids. WHRadjBMI was also associated with higher carotid intima-media thickness (39%; 95% CI, 9%–77% per 1 SD). Conclusions: Both general and central adiposity have causal effects on CHD and type 2 diabetes mellitus. Central adiposity may have a stronger effect on stroke risk. Future estimates of the burden of adiposity on health should include measures of central and general adiposity.

Maternal BMI at the start of pregnancy and offspring epigenome-wide DNA methylation: findings from the pregnancy and childhood epigenetics (PACE) consortium

Abstract: Pre-pregnancy maternal obesity is associated with adverse offspring outcomes at birth and later in life. Individual studies have shown that epigenetic modifications such as DNA methylation could contribute. Within the Pregnancy and Childhood Epigenetics (PACE) Consortium, we meta-analysed the association between pre-pregnancy maternal BMI and methylation at over 450,000 sites in newborn blood DNA, across 19 cohorts (9,340 mother-newborn pairs). We attempted to infer causality by comparing the effects of maternal versus paternal BMI and incorporating genetic variation. In four additional cohorts (1,817 mother-child pairs), we meta-analysed the association between maternal BMI at the start of pregnancy and blood methylation in adolescents. In newborns, maternal BMI was associated with small (<0.2% per BMI unit (1 kg/m2), P < 1.06 × 10-7) methylation variation at 9,044 sites throughout the genome. Adjustment for estimated cell proportions greatly attenuated the number of significant CpGs to 104, including 86 sites common to the unadjusted model. At 72/86 sites, the direction of the association was the same in newborns and adolescents, suggesting persistence of signals. However, we found evidence for acausal intrauterine effect of maternal BMI on newborn methylation at just 8/86 sites. In conclusion, this well-powered analysis identified robust associations between maternal adiposity and variations in newborn blood DNA methylation, but these small effects may be better explained by genetic or lifestyle factors than a causal intrauterine mechanism. This highlights the need for large-scale collaborative approaches and the application of causal inference techniques in epigenetic epidemiology.

Variants in the fetal genome near FLT1 are associated with risk of preeclampsia

Abstract: Ralph McGinnis, Valgerdur Steinthorsdottir, Linda Morgan and colleagues perform a genome-wide association study in the offspring of preeclampsia pregnancies and identify variants in the fetal genome near FLT1 that are associated with risk of preeclampsia. FLT1 is known to encode an isoform of placental origin implicated in the pathology of preeclampsia, providing biological support for the association of this locus with preeclampsia risk. Preeclampsia, which affects approximately 5% of pregnancies, is a leading cause of maternal and perinatal death1. The causes of preeclampsia remain unclear, but there is evidence for inherited susceptibility2. Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have not identified maternal sequence variants of genome-wide significance that replicate in independent data sets3,4. We report the first GWAS of offspring from preeclamptic pregnancies and discovery of the first genome-wide significant susceptibility locus (rs4769613; P = 5.4 × 10−11) in 4,380 cases and 310,238 controls. This locus is near the FLT1 gene encoding Fms-like tyrosine kinase 1, providing biological support, as a placental isoform of this protein (sFlt-1) is implicated in the pathology of preeclampsia5. The association was strongest in offspring from pregnancies in which preeclampsia developed during late gestation and offspring birth weights exceeded the tenth centile. An additional nearby variant, rs12050029, associated with preeclampsia independently of rs4769613. The newly discovered locus may enhance understanding of the pathophysiology of preeclampsia and its subtypes.

Estimating the causal influence of body mass index on risk of Parkinson disease: A Mendelian randomisation study

Abstract: BACKGROUND: Both positive and negative associations between higher body mass index (BMI) and Parkinson disease (PD) have been reported in observational studies, but it has been difficult to establish causality because of the possibility of residual confounding or reverse causation. To our knowledge, Mendelian randomisation (MR)-the use of genetic instrumental variables (IVs) to explore causal effects-has not previously been used to test the effect of BMI on PD. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Two-sample MR was undertaken using genome-wide association (GWA) study data. The associations between the genetic instruments and BMI were obtained from the GIANT consortium and consisted of the per-allele difference in mean BMI for 77 independent variants that reached genome-wide significance. The per-allele difference in log-odds of PD for each of these variants was estimated from a recent meta-analysis, which included 13,708 cases of PD and 95,282 controls. The inverse-variance weighted method was used to estimate a pooled odds ratio (OR) for the effect of a 5-kg/m2 higher BMI on PD. Evidence of directional pleiotropy averaged across all variants was sought using MR-Egger regression. Frailty simulations were used to assess whether causal associations were affected by mortality selection. A combined genetic IV expected to confer a lifetime exposure of 5-kg/m2 higher BMI was associated with a lower risk of PD (OR 0.82, 95% CI 0.69-0.98). MR-Egger regression gave similar results, suggesting that directional pleiotropy was unlikely to be biasing the result (intercept 0.002; p = 0.654). However, the apparent protective influence of higher BMI could be at least partially induced by survival bias in the PD GWA study, as demonstrated by frailty simulations. Other important limitations of this application of MR include the inability to analyse non-linear associations, to undertake subgroup analyses, and to gain mechanistic insights. CONCLUSIONS: In this large study using two-sample MR, we found that variants known to influence BMI had effects on PD in a manner consistent with higher BMI leading to lower risk of PD. The mechanism underlying this apparent protective effect warrants further study.

Low alcohol consumption and pregnancy and childhood outcomes: time to change guidelines indicating apparently ‘safe’ levels of alcohol during pregnancy? A systematic review and meta-analyses

Abstract: Objectives To determine the effects of low-to-moderate levels of maternal alcohol consumption in pregnancy on pregnancy and longer-term offspring outcomes. Search strategy Medline, Embase, Web of Science and Psychinfo from inception to 11 July 2016. Selection criteria Prospective observational studies, negative control and quasiexperimental studies of pregnant women estimating effects of light drinking in pregnancy (≤32 g/week) versus abstaining. Pregnancy outcomes such as birth weight and features of fetal alcohol syndrome were examined. Data collection and analysis One reviewer extracted data and another checked extracted data. Random effects meta-analyses were performed where applicable, and a narrative summary of findings was carried out otherwise. Main results 24 cohort and two quasiexperimental studies were included. With the exception of birth size and gestational age, there was insufficient data to meta-analyse or make robust conclusions. Odds of small for gestational age (SGA) and preterm birth were higher for babies whose mothers consumed up to 32 g/week versus none, but estimates for preterm birth were also compatible with no association: summary OR 1.08, 95% CI (1.02 to 1.14), I2 0%, (seven studies, all estimates were adjusted) OR 1.10, 95% CI (0.95 to 1.28), I2 60%, (nine studies, includes one unadjusted estimates), respectively. The earliest time points of exposure were used in the analysis. Conclusion Evidence of the effects of drinking ≤32 g/week in pregnancy is sparse. As there was some evidence that even light prenatal alcohol consumption is associated with being SGA and preterm delivery, guidance could advise abstention as a precautionary principle but should explain the paucity of evidence.

Different strategies for diagnosing gestational diabetes to improve maternal and infant health

Abstract: Background Gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) is carbohydrate intolerance resulting in hyperglycaemia with onset or first recognition during pregnancy. If untreated, perinatal morbidity and mortality may be increased. Accurate diagnosis allows appropriate treatment. Use of different tests and different criteria will influence which women are diagnosed with GDM. This is an update of a review published in 2011 and 2015. Objectives To evaluate and compare different testing strategies for diagnosis of gestational diabetes mellitus to improve maternal and infant health while assessing their impact on healthcare service costs. Search methods We searched Cochrane Pregnancy and Childbirth’s Trials Register, ClinicalTrials.gov, WHO International Clinical Trials Registry Platform (ICTRP) (9 January 2017) and reference lists of retrieved studies. Selection criteria We included randomised trials if they evaluated tests carried out to diagnose GDM. We excluded studies that used a quasi-random model, cluster-randomised or cross-over trials. Data collection and analysis Two review authors independently assessed trials for inclusion and risk of bias, extracted data and checked them for accuracy. The quality of the evidence was assessed using the GRADE approach. Main results We included a total of seven small trials, with 1420 women. One trial including 726 women was identified by this update and examined the two step versus one step approach. These trials were assessed as having varying risk of bias, with few outcomes reported. We prespecified six outcomes to be assessed for quality using the GRADE approach for one comparison: 75 g oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) versus 100 g OGTT; data for only one outcome (diagnosis of gestational diabetes) were available for assessment. One trial compared three different methods of delivering glucose: a candy bar (39 women), a 50 g glucose polymer drink (40 women) and a 50 g glucose monomer drink (43 women). We have included the results reported by this trial as separate comparisons. No trial reported on measures of costs of health services. We examined six main comparisons. 75 g OGTT versus 100 g OGTT (1 trial, 248 women): women who received 75 g OGTT had a higher relative risk of being diagnosed with GDM (risk ratio (RR) 2.55, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.96 to 6.75; very-low quality evidence). No data were reported for the following additional outcomes prespecified for GRADE assessment: caesarean section, macrosomia > 4.5 kg or however defined in the trial, long-term type 2 diabetes maternal, long-term type 2 diabetes infant and economic costs. Candy bar versus 50 g glucose monomer drink (1 trial, 60 women): more women receiving the candy bar, rather than glucose monomer, preferred the taste of the candy bar (RR 0.60, 95% CI 0.42 to 0.86) and 1-hour glucose was less with the candy bar. There were no differences in the other outcomes reported (maternal side effects). No infant outcomes were reported or any review primary outcomes. 50 g glucose polymer drink versus 50 g glucose monomer drink (3 trials, 239 women): mean difference (MD) in gestation at birth was -0.80 weeks (1 trial, 100 women; 95% CI -1.69 to 0.09). Total side effects were less common with the glucose polymer drink (1 trial, 63 women; RR 0.21, 95% CI 0.07 to 0.59), and no clear difference in taste acceptability was reported (1 trial, 63 women; RR 0.99, 95% CI 0.76 to 1.29). Fewer women reported nausea following the 50 g glucose polymer drink compared with the 50 g glucose monomer drink (1 trial, 66 women; RR 0.29, 95% CI 0.11 to 0.78). No other measures of maternal morbidity or outcomes for the infant were reported. 50 g glucose food versus 50 g glucose drink (1 trial, 30 women): women receiving glucose in their food, rather than as a drink, reported fewer side effects (RR 0.08, 95% CI 0.01 to 0.56). No clear difference was noted in the number of women requiring further testing (RR 0.14, 95% CI 0.01 to 2.55). No other measures of maternal morbidity or outcome were reported for the infant or review primary outcomes. 75 g OGTT World Health Organization (WHO) criteria versus 75 g OGTT American Diabetes Association (ADA) criteria (1 trial, 116 women): no clear differences in included outcomes were observed between women who received the 75 g OGTT and were diagnosed using criteria based on WHO (1999) recommendations and women who received the 75 g OGTT and were diagnosed using criteria recommended by the ADA (1979). Outcomes measured included diagnosis of gestational diabetes (RR 1.47, 95% CI 0.66 to 3.25), caesarean section (RR 1.07, 95% CI 0.85 to 1.35), macrosomia defined as > 90th percentile by ultrasound or birthweight equal to or exceeding 4000 g (RR 0.73, 95% CI 0.19 to 2.79), stillbirth (RR 0.49, 95% CI 0.02 to 11.68) and instrumental birth (RR 0.21, 95% CI 0.01 to 3.94). No other secondary outcomes were reported. Two-step approach (50 g oral glucose challenge test followed by selective 100 g OGTT Carpenter and Coustan criteria) versus one-step approach (universal 75 g OGTT ADA criteria) (1 trial, 726 women): women allocated the two-step approach had a lower risk of being diagnosed with GDM at 11 to 14 weeks' gestation compared to women allocated the one-step approach (RR 0.51, 95% CI 0.28 to 0.95). No other primary or secondary outcomes were reported. Authors' conclusions There is insufficient evidence to suggest which strategy is best for diagnosing GDM. Large randomised trials are required to establish the best strategy for correctly identifying women with GDM.

Treatments for gestational diabetes: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Abstract: Objective To investigate the effectiveness of different treatments for gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM). Design Systematic review, meta-analysis and network meta-analysis. Methods Data sources were searched up to July 2016 and included MEDLINE and Embase. Randomised trials comparing treatments for GDM (packages of care (dietary and lifestyle interventions with pharmacological treatments as required), insulin, metformin, glibenclamide (glyburide)) were selected by two authors and double checked for accuracy. Outcomes included large for gestational age, shoulder dystocia, neonatal hypoglycaemia, caesarean section and pre-eclampsia. We pooled data using random-effects meta-analyses and used Bayesian network meta-analysis to compare pharmacological treatments (ie, including treatments not directly compared within a trial). Results Forty-two trials were included, the reporting of which was generally poor with unclear or high risk of bias. Packages of care varied in their composition and reduced the risk of most adverse perinatal outcomes compared with routine care (eg, large for gestational age: relative risk0.58 (95% CI 0.49 to 0.68; I2=0%; trials 8; participants 3462). Network meta-analyses suggest that metformin had the highest probability of being the most effective treatment in reducing the risk of most outcomes compared with insulin or glibenclamide. Conclusions Evidence shows that packages of care are effective in reducing the risk of most adverse perinatal outcomes. However, trials often include few women, are poorly reported with unclear or high risk of bias and report few outcomes. The contribution of each treatment within the packages of care remains unclear. Large well-designed and well-conducted trials are urgently needed. Trial registration number PROSPERO CRD42013004608.

Using Mendelian randomization to determine causal effects of maternal pregnancy (intrauterine) exposures on offspring outcomes: Sources of bias and methods for assessing them

Abstract: Mendelian randomization (MR), the use of genetic variants as instrumental variables (IVs) to test causal effects, is increasingly used in aetiological epidemiology. Few of the methodological developments in MR have considered the specific situation of using genetic IVs to test the causal effect of exposures in pregnant women on postnatal offspring outcomes. In this paper, we describe specific ways in which the IV assumptions might be violated when MR is used to test such intrauterine effects. We highlight the importance of considering the extent to which there is overlap between genetic variants in offspring that influence their outcome with genetic variants used as IVs in their mothers. Where there is overlap, and particularly if it generates a strong association of maternal genetic IVs with offspring outcome via the offspring genotype, the exclusion restriction assumption of IV analyses will be violated. We recommend a set of analyses that ought to be considered when MR is used to address research questions concerned with intrauterine effects on post-natal offspring outcomes, and provide details of how these can be undertaken and interpreted. These additional analyses include the use of genetic data from offspring and fathers, examining associations using maternal non-transmitted alleles, and using simulated data in sensitivity analyses (for which we provide code). We explore the extent to which new methods that have been developed for exploring violation of the exclusion restriction assumption in the two-sample setting (MR-Egger and median based methods) might be used when exploring intrauterine effects in one-sample MR. We provide a list of recommendations that researchers should use when applying MR to test the effects of intrauterine exposures on postnatal offspring outcomes and use an illustrative example with real data to demonstrate how our recommendations can be applied and subsequent results appropriately interpreted.

Customised and Noncustomised Birth Weight Centiles and Prediction of Stillbirth and Infant Mortality and Morbidity: A Cohort Study of 979,912 Term Singleton Pregnancies in Scotland

Abstract: Background There is limited evidence to support the use of customised centile charts to identify those at risk of stillbirth and infant death at term. We sought to determine birth weight thresholds at which mortality and morbidity increased and the predictive ability of noncustomised (accounting for gestational age and sex) and partially customised centiles (additionally accounting for maternal height and parity) to identify fetuses at risk. Methods This is a population-based linkage study of 979,912 term singleton pregnancies in Scotland, United Kingdom, between 1992 and 2010. The main exposures were noncustomised and partially customised birth weight centiles. The primary outcomes were infant death, stillbirth, overall mortality (infant and stillbirth), Apgar score <7 at 5 min, and admission to the neonatal unit. Optimal thresholds that predicted outcomes for both non- and partially customised birth weight centiles were calculated. Prediction of mortality between non- and partially customised birth weight centiles was compared using area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUROC) and net reclassification index (NRI). Findings Birth weight ≤25th centile was associated with higher risk for all mortality and morbidity outcomes. For stillbirth, low Apgar score, and neonatal unit admission, risk also increased from the 85th centile. Similar patterns and magnitude of associations were observed for both non- and partially customised birth weight centiles. Partially customised birth weight centiles did not improve the discrimination of mortality (AUROC 0.61 [95%CI 0.60, 0.62]) compared with noncustomised birth weight centiles (AUROC 0.62 [95%CI 0.60, 0.63]) and slightly underperformed in reclassifying pregnancies to different risk categories for both fatal and non-fatal adverse outcomes (NRI -0.027 [95% CI -0.039, -0.016], p < 0.001). We were unable to fully customise centile charts because we lacked data on maternal weight and ethnicity. Additional analyses in an independent UK cohort (n = 10,515) suggested that lack of data on ethnicity in this population (in which national statistics show 98% are white British) and maternal weight would have misclassified ~15% of the large-for-gestation fetuses. Conclusions At term, birth weight remains strongly associated with the risk of stillbirth and infant death and neonatal morbidity. Partial customisation does not improve prediction performance. Consideration of early term delivery or closer surveillance for those with a predicted birth weight ≤25th or ≥85th centile may reduce adverse outcomes. Replication of the analysis with fully customised centiles accounting for ethnicity is warranted.

Metabolic profiling of gestational diabetes in obese women during pregnancy

Abstract: Antenatal obesity and associated gestational diabetes (GDM) are increasing worldwide. While pre-existing insulin resistance is implicated in GDM in obese women, the responsible metabolic pathways remain poorly described. Our aim was to compare metabolic profiles in blood of obese pregnant women with and without GDM 10 weeks prior to and at the time of diagnosis by OGTT. We investigated 646 women, of whom 198 developed GDM, in this prospective cohort study, a secondary analysis of UK Pregnancies Better Eating and Activity Trial (UPBEAT), a multicentre randomised controlled trial of a complex lifestyle intervention in obese pregnant women. Multivariate regression analyses adjusted for multiple testing, and accounting for appropriate confounders including study intervention, were performed to compare obese women with GDM with obese non-GDM women. We measured 163 analytes in serum, plasma or whole blood, including 147 from a targeted NMR metabolome, at time point 1 (mean gestational age 17 weeks 0 days) and time point 2 (mean gestational age 27 weeks 5 days, at time of OGTT) and compared them between groups. Multiple significant differences were observed in women who developed GDM compared with women without GDM (false discovery rate corrected p values <0.05). Most were evident prior to diagnosis. Women with GDM demonstrated raised lipids and lipoprotein constituents in VLDL subclasses, greater triacylglycerol enrichment across lipoprotein particles, higher branched-chain and aromatic amino acids and different fatty acid, ketone body, adipokine, liver and inflammatory marker profiles compared with those without GDM. Among obese pregnant women, differences in metabolic profile, including exaggerated dyslipidaemia, are evident at least 10 weeks prior to a diagnosis of GDM in the late second trimester.

Infant adiposity following a randomised controlled trial of a behavioural intervention in obese pregnancy

Abstract: Infant adiposity following a randomised controlled trial of a behavioural intervention in obese pregnancy

Using Genetic Variation to Explore the Causal Effect of Maternal Pregnancy Adiposity on Future Offspring Adiposity: A Mendelian Randomisation Study

Abstract: Background It has been suggested that greater maternal adiposity during pregnancy affects lifelong risk of offspring fatness via intrauterine mechanisms. Our aim was to use Mendelian randomisation (MR) to investigate the causal effect of intrauterine exposure to greater maternal body mass index (BMI) on offspring BMI and fat mass from childhood to early adulthood. Methods and Findings We used maternal genetic variants as instrumental variables (IVs) to test the causal effect of maternal BMI in pregnancy on offspring fatness (BMI and dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry [DXA] determined fat mass index [FMI]) in a MR approach. This was investigated, with repeat measurements, from ages 7 to 18 in the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC; n = 2,521 to 3,720 for different ages). We then sought to replicate findings with results for BMI at age 6 in Generation R (n = 2,337 for replication sample; n = 6,057 for total pooled sample). In confounder-adjusted multivariable regression in ALSPAC, a 1 standard deviation (SD, equivalent of 3.7 kg/m2) increase in maternal BMI was associated with a 0.25 SD (95% CI 0.21–0.29) increase in offspring BMI at age 7, with similar results at later ages and when FMI was used as the outcome. A weighted genetic risk score was generated from 32 genetic variants robustly associated with BMI (minimum F-statistic = 45 in ALSPAC). The MR results using this genetic risk score as an IV in ALSPAC were close to the null at all ages (e.g., 0.04 SD (95% CI -0.21–0.30) at age 7 and 0.03 SD (95% CI -0.26–0.32) at age 18 per SD increase in maternal BMI), which was similar when a 97 variant generic risk score was used in ALSPAC. When findings from age 7 in ALSPAC were meta-analysed with those from age 6 in Generation R, the pooled confounder-adjusted multivariable regression association was 0.22 SD (95% CI 0.19–0.25) per SD increase in maternal BMI and the pooled MR effect (pooling the 97 variant score results from ALSPAC with the 32 variant score results from Generation R) was 0.05 SD (95%CI -0.11–0.21) per SD increase in maternal BMI (p-value for difference between the two results = 0.05). A number of sensitivity analyses exploring violation of the MR results supported our main findings. However, power was limited for some of the sensitivity tests and further studies with relevant data on maternal, offspring, and paternal genotype are required to obtain more precise (and unbiased) causal estimates. Conclusions Our findings provide little evidence to support a strong causal intrauterine effect of incrementally greater maternal BMI resulting in greater offspring adiposity.

Association of pre-pregnancy body mass index with offspring metabolic profile: Analyses of 3 European prospective birth cohorts.

Abstract: Background A high proportion of women start pregnancy overweight or obese. According to the developmental overnutrition hypothesis, this could lead offspring to have metabolic disruption throughout their lives and thus perpetuate the obesity epidemic across generations. Concerns about this hypothesis are influencing antenatal care. However, it is unknown whether maternal pregnancy adiposity is associated with long-term risk of adverse metabolic profiles in offspring, and if so, whether this association is causal, via intrauterine mechanisms, or explained by shared familial (genetic, lifestyle, socioeconomic) characteristics. We aimed to determine if associations between maternal body mass index (BMI) and offspring systemic cardio-metabolic profile are causal, via intrauterine mechanisms, or due to shared familial factors. Methods and findings We used 1- and 2-stage individual participant data (IPD) meta-analysis, and a negative-control (paternal BMI) to examine the association between maternal pre-pregnancy BMI and offspring serum metabolome from 3 European birth cohorts (offspring age at blood collection: 16, 17, and 31 years). Circulating metabolic traits were quantified by high-throughput nuclear magnetic resonance metabolomics. Results from 1-stage IPD meta-analysis (N = 5327 to 5377 mother-father-offspring trios) showed that increasing maternal and paternal BMI was associated with an adverse cardio-metabolic profile in offspring. We observed strong positive associations with very-low-density lipoprotein (VLDL)-lipoproteins, VLDL-cholesterol (C), VLDL-triglycerides, VLDL-diameter, branched/aromatic amino acids, glycoprotein acetyls, and triglycerides, and strong negative associations with high-density lipoprotein (HDL), HDL-diameter, HDL-C, HDL2-C, and HDL3-C (all P 0.003, equivalent to P > 0.05 after accounting for multiple testing). Results were similar in each individual cohort, and in the 2-stage analysis. Offspring BMI showed similar patterns of cross-sectional association with metabolic profile as for parental pre-pregnancy BMI associations but with greater magnitudes. Adjustment of parental BMI–offspring metabolic traits associations for offspring BMI suggested the parental associations were largely due to the association of parental BMI with offspring BMI. Limitations of this study are that inferences cannot be drawn about the role of circulating maternal fetal fuels (i.e., glucose, lipids, fatty acids, and amino acids) on later offspring metabolic profile. In addition, BMI may not reflect potential effects of maternal pregnancy fat distribution. Conclusion Our findings suggest that maternal BMI–offspring metabolome associations are likely to be largely due to shared genetic or familial lifestyle confounding rather than to intrauterine mechanisms.

The role of glycaemic and lipid risk factors in mediating the effect of BMI on coronary heart disease: a two-step, two-sample Mendelian randomisation study.

Abstract: The extent to which effects of BMI on CHD are mediated by glycaemic and lipid risk factors is unclear. In this study we examined the effects of these traits using genetic evidence. We used two-sample Mendelian randomisation to determine: (1) the causal effect of BMI on CHD (60,801 case vs 123,504 control participants), type 2 diabetes (34,840 case vs 114,981 control participants), fasting glucose (n = 46,186), insulin (n = 38,238), HbA1c (n = 46,368) and LDL-cholesterol, HDL-cholesterol and triacylglycerols (n = 188,577); (2) the causal effects of glycaemic and lipids traits on CHD; and (3) the extent to which these traits mediate any effect of BMI on CHD. One SD higher BMI (~ 4.5 kg/m2) was associated with higher risk of CHD (OR 1.45 [95% CI 1.27, 1.66]) and type 2 diabetes (1.96 [95% CI 1.35, 2.83]), higher levels of fasting glucose (0.07 mmol/l [95% CI 0.03, 0.11]), HbA1c (0.05% [95% CI 0.01, 0.08]), fasting insulin (0.18 log pmol/l [95% CI 0.14, 0.22]) and triacylglycerols (0.20 SD [95% CI 0.14, 0.26]) and lower levels of HDL-cholesterol (−0.23 SD [95% CI −0.32, −0.15]). There was no evidence for a causal relation between BMI and LDL-cholesterol. The causal associations of higher triacylglycerols, HbA1c and diabetes risk with CHD risk remained after performing sensitivity analyses that considered different models of horizontal pleiotropy. The BMI–CHD effect reduced from 1.45 to 1.16 (95% CI 0.99, 1.36) and to 1.36 (95% CI 1.19, 1.57) with genetic adjustment for triacylglycerols or HbA1c, respectively, and to 1.09 (95% CI 0.94, 1.27) with adjustment for both. Increased triacylglycerol levels and poor glycaemic control appear to mediate much of the effect of BMI on CHD.

Change in children’s physical activity and sedentary time between Year 1 and Year 4 of primary school in the B-PROACT1V cohort

Abstract: The aim of this study was to examine how children’s and parents’ physical activity changes from Year 1 (5–6) to Year 4 (8–9 years of age). Data are from the Bristol (UK) B-PROACT1V cohort. Fifty-seven primary schools were recruited when the children were in Year 1, with 1299 children and their parents providing data. Forty-seven schools were re-recruited in Year 4, with 1223 children and parents providing data (685 of whom participated in Year 1). Children and at least one parent wore an accelerometer for 5 days including a weekend and mean minutes of sedentary time, moderate-to-vigorous intensity physical activity (MVPA) and accelerometer counts per minute (CPM) were derived. Multiple imputation was used to impute missing data for all 1837 families who took part, including those who participated at just one time. Paired t-tests examined if there was statistical evidence of change in accelerometer measures. Multiple imputation and observed data were comparable and results using complete observed data were mostly the same as those using imputed data. Imputed data showed that mean boys’ CPM decreased from 747 to 673 (difference in mean 74 [95% CI 45 to 103]) and girls’ from 686 to 587 (99 [79 to 119]). Boys’ time spent in MVPA reduced from 72 to 69 (3 [0 to 6]) and girls’ from 62 to 56 (7 [4 to 9]) minutes per day. There were increases in sedentary time for both boys (354 to 428 min, 74 [61 to 88]) and girls (365 to 448, 83 [71 to 96]). There was no evidence of change in parent CPM or MVPA. Mothers’ sedentary time increased by 26 min per day [16 to 35]. There were similar increases in sedentary time in girls and boys between age 5–6 and 8–9, and decreases in MVPA that were more marked in girls. The similarity of multiple-imputed and complete observed data suggest that these findings may not be markedly affected by selection bias. Result support early interventions to prevent the age-related decline in children’s physical activity.

Risk factor screening to identify women requiring oral glucose tolerance testing to diagnose gestational diabetes: A systematic review and meta-analysis and analysis of two pregnancy cohorts.

Abstract: BACKGROUND: Easily identifiable risk factors including: obesity and ethnicity at high risk of diabetes are commonly used to indicate which women should be offered the oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) to diagnose gestational diabetes (GDM). Evidence regarding these risk factors is limited however. We conducted a systematic review (SR) and meta-analysis and individual participant data (IPD) analysis to evaluate the performance of risk factors in identifying women with GDM. METHODS: We searched MEDLINE, Medline in Process, Embase, Maternity and Infant Care and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) up to August 2016 and conducted additional reference checking. We included observational, cohort, case-control and cross-sectional studies reporting the performance characteristics of risk factors used to identify women at high risk of GDM. We had access to IPD from the Born in Bradford and Atlantic Diabetes in Pregnancy cohorts, all pregnant women in the two cohorts with data on risk factors and OGTT results were included. RESULTS: Twenty nine published studies with 211,698 women for the SR and a further 14,103 women from two birth cohorts (Born in Bradford and the Atlantic Diabetes in Pregnancy study) for the IPD analysis were included. Six studies assessed the screening performance of guidelines; six examined combinations of risk factors; eight evaluated the number of risk factors and nine examined prediction models or scores. Meta-analysis using data from published studies suggests that irrespective of the method used, risk factors do not identify women with GDM well. Using IPD and combining risk factors to produce the highest sensitivities, results in low specificities (and so higher false positives). Strategies that use the risk factors of age (>25 or >30) and BMI (>25 or 30) perform as well as other strategies with additional risk factors included. CONCLUSIONS: Risk factor screening methods are poor predictors of which pregnant women will be diagnosed with GDM. A simple approach of offering an OGTT to women 25 years or older and/or with a BMI of 25kg/m2 or more is as good as more complex risk prediction models. Research to identify more accurate (bio)markers is needed. Systematic Review Registration: PROSPERO CRD42013004608.

Fetal sex-specific differences in gestational age at delivery in pre-eclampsia: a meta-analysis.

Abstract: Background: : Pre-eclampsia (PE) is a major pregnancy disorder complicating up to 8% of pregnancies. Increasing evidence indicates a sex-specific interplay between the mother, placenta and fetus. This may lead to different adaptive mechanisms during pregnancy.Methods: We performed an individual participant data meta-analysis to determine associations of fetal sex and PE, with specific focus on gestational age at delivery in PE. This was done on 219 575 independent live-born singleton pregnancies, with a gestational age at birth between 22.0 and 43.0 weeks of gestation, from 11 studies participating in a worldwide consortium of international research groups focusing on pregnancy.Results: Of the women, 9033 (4.1%) experienced PE in their pregnancy and 48.8% of the fetuses were female versus 51.2% male. No differences in the female/male distribution were observed with respect to term PE (delivered ≥ 37 weeks). Preterm PE (delivered < 37 weeks) was slightly more prevalent among pregnancies with a female fetus than in pregnancies with a male fetus [odds ratio (OR) 1.11, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.02-1.21]. Very preterm PE (delivered < 34 weeks) was even more prevalent among pregnancies with a female fetus as compared with pregnancies with a male fetus (OR 1.36, 95% CI 1.17-1.59).Conclusions: Sexual dimorphic differences in the occurrence of PE exist, with preterm PE being more prevalent among pregnancies with a female fetus as compared with pregnancies with a male fetus and with no differences with respect to term PE.

Associations between participation in organised physical activity in the school or community outside school hours and neighbourhood play with child physical activity and sedentary time: a cross-sectional analysis of primary school-aged children from the UK.

Abstract: Objectives To assess the extent to which participation in organised physical activity in the school or community outside school hours and neighbourhood play was associated with children’s physical activity and sedentary time. Design Cross-sectional study. Setting Children were recruited from 47 state-funded primary schools in South West England. Participants 1223 children aged 8–9 years old. Outcome measures Accelerometer-assessed moderate-to-vigorous-intensity physical activity (MVPA) and sedentary time. Methods Children wore an accelerometer, and the mean minutes of MVPA and sedentary time per day were derived. Children reported their attendance at organised physical activity in the school or community outside school hours and neighbourhood play using a piloted questionnaire. Cross-sectional linear and logistic regression were used to examine if attendance frequency at each setting (and all settings combined) was associated with MVPA and sedentary time. Multiple imputation methods were used to account for missing data and increase sample size. Results Children who attended clubs at school 3–4 days per week obtained an average of 7.58 (95% CI 2.7 to 12.4) more minutes of MVPA per day than children who never attended. Participation in the three other non-school-based activities was similarly associated with MVPA. Evidence for associations with sedentary time was generally weaker. Associations were similar in girls and boys. When the four different contexts were combined, each additional one to two activities participated in per week increased participants’ odds (OR: 1.18, 95% CI 1.12 to 1.25) of meeting the government recommendations for 60 min of MVPA per day. Conclusion Participating in organised physical activity at school and in the community is associated with greater physical activity and reduced sedentary time among both boys and girls. All four types of activity contribute to overall physical activity, which provides parents with a range of settings in which to help their child be active.

Number of Offspring and Cardiovascular Disease Risk in Men and Women: The Role of Shared Lifestyle Characteristics.

Abstract: BACKGROUND Previous studies of the number of offspring and cardiovascular disease (CVD) report conflicting findings. We re-examined this association in both sexes to clarify the role of the cardiometabolic changes that women experience during pregnancy versus shared lifestyle characteristics. METHODS We studied 180,626 women and 133,259 men participating in the UK Biobank cohort who were free of CVD at baseline. CVD events were obtained from hospital and death registers. Analyses were conducted using Cox proportional hazards regression. RESULTS The incidence rates of overall CVD were six per 1000 person-years for women and nine per 1000 person-years for men. Number of children showed an association with risk of CVD among women; the adjusted HR (95% CI) was 1.2 (1.1, 1.3) for one, 1.1 (1.0, 1.2) for two, 1.2 (1.1, 1.3) for three, and 1.2 (1.1, 1.4) for four or more as compared to none. Number of children was also associated with CVD among men; the adjusted HR (95% CI) was 1.1 (1.0, 1.2) for one, 1.0 (0.96, 1.1) for two, 1.1 (1.0, 1.2) for three, and 1.1 (1.0, 1.3) for four or more as compared to none. There was no evidence of heterogeneity in the associations between sexes (Pinteraction = 0.80). Number of offspring also showed similar associations with ischemic heart disease and hypertensive disorders in both sexes. CONCLUSIONS We observed similar associations between number of offspring and CVD in both sexes. The association among women might therefore be largely explained by unobserved behavioral and lifestyle characteristics.

Are parents’ motivations to exercise and intention to engage in regular family-based activity associated with both adult and child physical activity?

Abstract: Background/aim To examine the associations between parents’ motivation to exercise and intention to engage in family-based activity with their own and their child’s physical activity. Methods Cross-sectional data from 1067 parent–child pairs (76.1% mother–child); children were aged 5–6 years. Parents reported their exercise motivation (ie, intrinsic motivation, identified regulation, introjected regulation, external regulation and amotivation) as described in self-determination theory and their intention to engage in family-based activity. Parents’ and children’s mean minutes of moderate-to-vigorous-intensity physical activity (MVPA) and mean counts per minute were derived from ActiGraph accelerometers worn for 3 to 5 days (including a mixture of weekdays and weekend days). Multivariable linear regression models, adjusted for parent sex, number of children, indices of multiple deprivation and clustering of children in schools were used to examine associations (total of 24 associations tested). Results In fully adjusted models, each unit increase in identified regulation was associated with a 6.08 (95% CI 3.27 to 8.89, p Conclusions Future family-based physical activity interventions may benefit from helping parents identify personal value in exercise while avoiding the use of external control or coercion to motivate behaviour.

Metabolic Profiling of Adiponectin Levels in Adults: Mendelian Randomization Analysis

Abstract: Background— Adiponectin, a circulating adipocyte-derived protein, has insulin-sensitizing, anti-inflammatory, antiatherogenic, and cardiomyocyte-protective properties in animal models. However, the systemic effects of adiponectin in humans are unknown. Our aims were to define the metabolic profile associated with higher blood adiponectin concentration and investigate whether variation in adiponectin concentration affects the systemic metabolic profile. Methods and Results— We applied multivariable regression in ≤5909 adults and Mendelian randomization (using cis -acting genetic variants in the vicinity of the adiponectin gene as instrumental variables) for analyzing the causal effect of adiponectin in the metabolic profile of ≤37 545 adults. Participants were largely European from 6 longitudinal studies and 1 genome-wide association consortium. In the multivariable regression analyses, higher circulating adiponectin was associated with higher high-density lipoprotein lipids and lower very-low-density lipoprotein lipids, glucose levels, branched-chain amino acids, and inflammatory markers. However, these findings were not supported by Mendelian randomization analyses for most metabolites. Findings were consistent between sexes and after excluding high-risk groups (defined by age and occurrence of previous cardiovascular event) and 1 study with admixed population. Conclusions— Our findings indicate that blood adiponectin concentration is more likely to be an epiphenomenon in the context of metabolic disease than a key determinant.

The role of glycaemic and lipid risk factors in mediating the effect of BMI on coronary heart disease: A two-step, two-sample Mendelian randomization study

Abstract: Background: The extent to which effects of BMI on coronary heart disease (CHD) are mediated by gylcaemic and lipid risk factors is unclear. Methods: We used two-sample Mendelian randomization to determine the causal effect of: (i) BMI on CHD (60,801 cases; 123, 504 controls), type 2 diabetes (T2DM; 34,840 cases; 114,981 controls), fasting glucose (n=46,186), insulin (n=38,238), HbA1c (n=46,368), LDL-cholesterol (LDL-C), HDL-cholesterol (HDL-C) and triglycerides (n=188,577); (ii) glycaemic and lipids traits on CHD; and (iii) extent to which these traits mediated any effect of BMI on CHD. Findings: One standard deviation (SD) increase in BMI (~ 4.5kg/m2) increased CHD (odds ratio=1.45 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.27, 1.66)) and T2DM (1.96 (1.35, 2.83)), and levels of fasting glucose (0.07mmol/l (95%CI 0.03, 0.11)), HbA1c (0.05% (95%CI 0.01, 0.08)), fasting insulin (0.18log pmol/l (95%CI 0.14, 0.22)) and triglycerides (0.20 SD (95%CI 0.14, 0.26)), and lowered levels of HDL-C (-0.23 SD (95%CI -0.32, -0.15)). BMI was not causally related to LDL-C. After accounting for potential pleiotropy, triglycerides, HbA1c and T2DM were causally related to CHD. The BMI-CHD effect reduced from 1.45 to 1.16 (95%CI 0.99, 1.36) and to 1.36 (95%CI 1.19, 1.57) with genetic adjustment for triglycerides or HbA1c respectively, and to 1.09 (95%CI 0.94, 1.27) with adjustment for both. Interpretation: Increased triglyceride levels and poor glycaemic control appear to mediate much of the effect of BMI on CHD.

Metabolic characterization of menopause: cross-sectional and longitudinal evidence

Abstract: Background: It remains elusive whether the changes in cardiometabolic biomarkers during the menopausal transition are due to ovarian aging or chronological aging. Well-conducted longitudinal studies are required to determine this. The aim of this study was to explore the cross-sectional and longitudinal associations of reproductive status defined according to the 2012 Stages of Reproductive Aging Workshop criteria with 74 metabolic biomarkers, and establish whether any associations are independent of age related changes. Methods: We determined cross-sectional associations of reproductive status with metabolic profiling in 3,312 UK midlife women. In a subgroup of 1,492 women who had repeat assessments after 2.5 years, we assessed how change in reproductive status was associated with the changes in metabolic biomarkers. Metabolic profiles were measured by high-throughput quantitative serum NMR metabolomics. In longitudinal analyses, we compared the change in metabolic biomarkers for each reproductive status category change to that in the reference of being pre-menopausal at both time points. As all women aged by a similar amount during follow-up, these analyses contribute to distinguish age related changes from those related to change in reproductive status. Results: Consistent cross-sectional and longitudinal associations of menopause with a wide range of metabolic biomarkers were observed, suggesting transition to menopause induces multiple metabolic changes independent of chronological aging. The metabolic changes included increased concentrations of very small VLDL, IDL and LDL subclasses, remnant and LDL cholesterol, and reduced LDL particle size, all towards an atherogenic lipoprotein profile. Increased inflammation was suggested via an inflammatory biomarker, glycoprotein acetyls, but not via C-reactive protein. Also, levels of glutamine and albumin were increased during the transition. Most of these metabolic changes seen at the time of becoming post-menopausal remained or became slightly stronger during the post-menopausal years. Conclusions: Transition to post-menopause has effects on multiple circulating metabolic biomarkers, over and above the underlying age trajectory. The adverse changes in multiple apolipoprotein-B containing lipoprotein subclasses and increased inflammation may underlie women9s increased cardiometabolic risk in post-menopausal years.

Association of parents’ and children’s physical activity and sedentary time in Year 4 (8–9) and change between Year 1 (5–6) and Year 4: a longitudinal study

Abstract: Parents could be important influences on child physical activity and parents are often encouraged to be more active with their child. This paper examined the association between parent and child physical activity and sedentary time in a UK cohort of children assessed when the children were in Year 1 (5–6 years old) and in Year 4 (8–9 years old). One thousand two hundred twenty three children and parents provided data in Year 4 and of these 685 participated in Year 1. Children and parents wore an accelerometer for five days including a weekend. Mean minutes of sedentary time and moderate-to-vigorous intensity physical activity (MVPA) were derived. Multiple imputation was used to impute all missing data and create complete datasets. Linear regression models examined whether parent MVPA and sedentary time at Year 4 and at Year 1 predicted child MVPA and sedentary time at Year 4. Change in parent MVPA and sedentary time was used to predict change in child MVPA and sedentary time between Year 1 and Year 4. Imputed data showed that at Year 4, female parent sedentary time was associated with child sedentary time (0.13, 95% CI = 0.00 to 0.27 mins/day), with a similar association for male parents (0.15, 95% CI = −0.02 to 0.32 mins/day). Female parent and child MVPA at Year 4 were associated (0.16, 95% CI = 0.08 to 0.23 mins/day) with a smaller association for male parents (0.08, 95% CI = −0.01 to 0.17 mins/day). There was little evidence that either male or female parent MVPA at Year 1 predicted child MVPA at Year 4 with similar associations for sedentary time. There was little evidence that change in parent MVPA or sedentary time predicted change in child MVPA or sedentary time respectively. Parents who were more physically active when their child was 8–9 years old had a child who was more active, but the magnitude of association was generally small. There was little evidence that parental activity from three years earlier predicted child activity at age 8–9, or that change in parent activity predicted change in child activity.