Debbie Bradshaw

Bio: Debbie Bradshaw is an academic researcher from South African Medical Research Council. The author has contributed to research in topics: Population & Mortality rate. The author has an hindex of 57, co-authored 212 publications receiving 11541 citations. Previous affiliations of Debbie Bradshaw include Medical Research Council & University of Cape Town.

Obesity in South Africa: The South African Demographic and Health Survey

Abstract: 12.2% of men and 5.6% of women. For men, 19% of the variation of BMI and 34% of the variation in waist circumference could be explained by age, level of education, population group, and area of residence. For women, these variables explained 16% of the variation of BMI and 24% of the variation in waist circumference. Obesity increased with age, and higher levels of obesity were found in urban African women. Discussion: Overnutrition is prevalent among adult South Africans, particularly women. Determinants of overnutrition include age, level of education, ethnicity, and area of residence.

Initial burden of disease estimates for South Africa, 2000.

Abstract: BACKGROUND: This paper describes the first national burden of disease study for South Africa The main focus is the burden due to premature mortality, ie years of life lost (YLLs) In addition, estimates of the burden contributed by morbidity, ie the years lived with disability (YLDs), are obtained to calculate disability-adjusted life years (DALYs); and the impact of AIDS on premature mortality in the year 2010 is assessed METHOD: Owing to the rapid mortality transition and the lack of timely data, a modelling approach has been adopted The total mortality for the year 2000 is estimated using a demographic and AIDS model The non-AIDS cause-of-death profile is estimated using three sources of data: Statistics South Africa, the National Department of Home Affairs, and the National Injury Mortality Surveillance System A ratio method is used to estimate the YLDs from the YLL estimates RESULTS: The top single cause of mortality burden was HIV/AIDS followed by homicide, tuberculosis, road traffic accidents and diarrhoea HIV/AIDS accounted for 38% of total YLLs, which is proportionately higher for females (47%) than for males (33%) Pre-transitional diseases, usually associated with poverty and underdevelopment, accounted for 25%, non-communicable diseases 21% and injuries 16% of YLLs The DALY estimates highlight the fact that mortality alone underestimates the burden of disease, especially with regard to unintentional injuries, respiratory disease, and nervous system, mental and sense organ disorders The impact of HIV/AIDS is expected to more than double the burden of premature mortality by the year 2010 CONCLUSION: This study has drawn together data from a range of sources to develop coherent estimates of premature mortality by cause South Africa is experiencing a quadruple burden of disease comprising the pre-transitional diseases, the emerging chronic diseases, injuries, and HIV/AIDS Unless interventions that reduce morbidity and delay morbidity become widely available, the burden due to HIV/AIDS can be expected to grow very rapidly in the next few years An improved base of information is needed to assess the morbidity impact more accurately

Estimates of worldwide burden of cancer in 2008: GLOBOCAN 2008.

Abstract: Estimates of the worldwide incidence and mortality from 27 cancers in 2008 have been prepared for 182 countries as part of the GLOBOCAN series published by the International Agency for Research on Cancer. In this article, we present the results for 20 world regions, summarizing the global patterns for the eight most common cancers. Overall, an estimated 12.7 million new cancer cases and 7.6 million cancer deaths occur in 2008, with 56% of new cancer cases and 63% of the cancer deaths occurring in the less developed regions of the world. The most commonly diagnosed cancers worldwide are lung (1.61 million, 12.7% of the total), breast (1.38 million, 10.9%) and colorectal cancers (1.23 million, 9.7%). The most common causes of cancer death are lung cancer (1.38 million, 18.2% of the total), stomach cancer (738,000 deaths, 9.7%) and liver cancer (696,000 deaths, 9.2%). Cancer is neither rare anywhere in the world, nor mainly confined to high-resource countries. Striking differences in the patterns of cancer from region to region are observed.

Global Prevalence of Diabetes: Estimates for the year 2000 and projections for 2030

Abstract: OBJECTIVE —The goal of this study was to estimate the prevalence of diabetes and the number of people of all ages with diabetes for years 2000 and 2030. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS —Data on diabetes prevalence by age and sex from a limited number of countries were extrapolated to all 191 World Health Organization member states and applied to United Nations’ population estimates for 2000 and 2030. Urban and rural populations were considered separately for developing countries. RESULTS —The prevalence of diabetes for all age-groups worldwide was estimated to be 2.8% in 2000 and 4.4% in 2030. The total number of people with diabetes is projected to rise from 171 million in 2000 to 366 million in 2030. The prevalence of diabetes is higher in men than women, but there are more women with diabetes than men. The urban population in developing countries is projected to double between 2000 and 2030. The most important demographic change to diabetes prevalence across the world appears to be the increase in the proportion of people >65 years of age. CONCLUSIONS —These findings indicate that the “diabetes epidemic” will continue even if levels of obesity remain constant. Given the increasing prevalence of obesity, it is likely that these figures provide an underestimate of future diabetes prevalence.