Debi Prasad Bal

Bio: Debi Prasad Bal is an academic researcher from Global University (GU). The author has contributed to research in topics: Debt-to-GDP ratio & Debt. The author has an hindex of 7, co-authored 18 publications receiving 342 citations. Previous affiliations of Debi Prasad Bal include Xavier University & Indian Institute of Technology, Hyderabad.

Nonlinear causality between crude oil price and exchange rate: A comparative study of China and India - A Reassessment

Abstract: De Vita and Trachanas's (hereafter DV-T, 2016) paper published in (Energy Economics, Volume 56, May 2016, pages, 150-160) criticizes Bal and Rath's paper (Energy Economics, Volume 51, September 2015, pages, 149-156) (hereafter, BR, 2015) by undertaking a ‘pure replication' and a ‘reanalysis' using (BR, 2015) data set. The aim of this paper is to reassess (BR, 2015) by providing comments and additional evidence. We revisit (BR, 2015) with the aim of applying additional unit root, cointegration and nonlinear causality tests. The results derived from these supplementary tests clearly reveal that the oil price series is non-stationary at level. The bivariate noisy Mackey-Glass model proposed by Kyrtsou and Terraza (2003) reveals bi-directional non-linear causality exists between real oil price and exchange rate in case of China, whereas for India, only unidirectional nonlinear causality running from oil price to exchange rate.

The Effects of Capital Formation on Economic Growth in India: Evidence from ARDL-bound Testing Approach:

Abstract: This article examines the impact of capital formation on economic growth in India covering the period from 1970 to 2012. This paper traces a long-run equilibrium relation between capital formation and economic growth and other control variables by using autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model. The error correction (ECM) model shows that the capital formation, trade openness, exchange rate and total factor productivity positively affect the economic growth and the inflation negatively affects the economic growth in the short run. It is recommended that government increases the level of capital formation in order to achieve a higher level of economic growth.

The Military Balance

Abstract: For nearly a quarter-century the military balance in the Pacific rested on the clearly perceived parameters of the cold war, namely parallel Soviet and Chinese anti-imperialism and American containment policies which compelled the smaller states to align themselves with one or other of the opposing blocs. One of the more beneficial Nixon shocks reopened the traditional American 'Open Door* policy toward China. This single move granted the United States important diplomatic initiative in the Far East, shifted the fulcrum of political and military attention from southeast Asia to the northwest Pacific, and destroyed the main pillar of Moscow's Asian policy which rested on indefinite ChineseAmerican animosity. This realignment of the Pacific power configuration also raised fundamental questions about the future military balance in this theatre. The purpose of this essay is to analyse the present military postures of the principal actors and to develop several questions about future problems. An assessment of comparative military strengths and strategies must be predicated upon presumptions of political policy and orientation. Let us turn first therefore to some assumptions about the political Dositions of the various national actors in the Pacific region.

Gold investment as an inflationary hedge: Cointegration evidence with allowance for endogenous structural breaks

Abstract: This note tests for the presence of a stable long-run relationship between the price of gold and inflation in the United States from 1945 to 2006 and from 1973 to 2006. Since both the gold market and the inflationary regime have been subjected to structural change over time, a novel unit root testing procedure is employed which allows for the timing of significant breaks to be estimated, rather than assumed exogenous. After taking these breaks into account, a modified cointegration approach provides strong evidence of a cointegrating relationship between gold and inflation in the post-war period and since the early 1970s. The results lend support to the widely held view that direct and indirect gold investment can serve as an effective inflationary hedge.

Do High Oil Prices Presage Inflation? The Evidence from G-5 Countries - eScholarship

Abstract: We estimate the effects of oil price changes on inflation for the United States, United Kingdom, France, Germany, and Japan using an augmented Phillips curve framework. We supplement the traditional Phillips curve approach taking into account the growing body of evidence suggesting that oil prices may have asymmetric and nonlinear effects on output and that structural instabilities may exist in those relationships. Our statistical estimates suggest current oil price increases are likely to have only a modest effect on inflation in the U.S, Japan, and Europe. Oil price increases of as much as 10 percentage points will lead to direct inflationary increases of about 0.1-0.8 percentage points in the U.S. and the E.U. Inflation in Europe, traditionally thought to be more sensitive to oil prices than in the U.S., is unlikely to show any significant difference in sensitivity from that in the United States and in fact may be less in some countries.

Does Globalization Impede Environmental Quality in India

Abstract: Using annual data for the period 1970-2012, the study explores the relationship between globalization and CO2 emissions by incorporating energy consumption, financial development and economic growth in CO2 emission function for India. It applies Lee and Strazicich (2013) unit root test for examining the stationary properties of variables in presence of structural breaks and employs the cointegration method proposed by Bayer-Hanck (2013) to test the long-run relationships in the model. The robustness s of cointegration result from the latter model was further verified with the application of the ARDL bounds testing approach to cointegration proposed by Pesaran, Shin and Smith (2001). After confirming the existence of cointegration, the overall long run estimates of the estimation of carbon emission model points out that acceleration in the process of globalization (measured in its three dimensions - economic, social and political globalizations) and energy consumption result in increasing CO2 emissions, along with the contribution of economic development and financial development towards the deterioration of the environmental quality by raising CO2 emissions over the long-run. This finding validates holding of environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis for the Indian context.