Dejan Loncar

Bio: Dejan Loncar is an academic researcher from World Health Organization. The author has contributed to research in topics: Medicine & Gross domestic product. The author has an hindex of 1, co-authored 1 publications receiving 9148 citations.

Projections of Global Mortality and Burden of Disease from 2002 to 2030

Abstract: Background Global and regional projections of mortality and burden of disease by cause for the years 2000, 2010, and 2030 were published by Murray and Lopez in 1996 as part of the Global Burden of Disease project. These projections, which are based on 1990 data, continue to be widely quoted, although they are substantially outdated; in particular, they substantially underestimated the spread of HIV/AIDS. To address the widespread demand for information on likely future trends in global health, and thereby to support international health policy and priority setting, we have prepared new projections of mortality and burden of disease to 2030 starting from World Health Organization estimates of mortality and burden of disease for 2002. This paper describes the methods, assumptions, input data, and results. Methods and Findings Relatively simple models were used to project future health trends under three scenarios—baseline, optimistic, and pessimistic—based largely on projections of economic and social development, and using the historically observed relationships of these with cause-specific mortality rates. Data inputs have been updated to take account of the greater availability of death registration data and the latest available projections for HIV/AIDS, income, human capital, tobacco smoking, body mass index, and other inputs. In all three scenarios there is a dramatic shift in the distribution of deaths from younger to older ages and from communicable, maternal, perinatal, and nutritional causes to noncommunicable disease causes. The risk of death for children younger than 5 y is projected to fall by nearly 50% in the baseline scenario between 2002 and 2030. The proportion of deaths due to noncommunicable disease is projected to rise from 59% in 2002 to 69% in 2030. Global HIV/AIDS deaths are projected to rise from 2.8 million in 2002 to 6.5 million in 2030 under the baseline scenario, which assumes coverage with antiretroviral drugs reaches 80% by 2012. Under the optimistic scenario, which also assumes increased prevention activity, HIV/AIDS deaths are projected to drop to 3.7 million in 2030. Total tobacco-attributable deaths are projected to rise from 5.4 million in 2005 to 6.4 million in 2015 and 8.3 million in 2030 under our baseline scenario. Tobacco is projected to kill 50% more people in 2015 than HIV/AIDS, and to be responsible for 10% of all deaths globally. The three leading causes of burden of disease in 2030 are projected to include HIV/AIDS, unipolar depressive disorders, and ischaemic heart disease in the baseline and pessimistic scenarios. Road traffic accidents are the fourth leading cause in the baseline scenario, and the third leading cause ahead of ischaemic heart disease in the optimistic scenario. Under the baseline scenario, HIV/AIDS becomes the leading cause of burden of disease in middle- and low-income countries by 2015. Conclusions These projections represent a set of three visions of the future for population health, based on certain explicit assumptions. Despite the wide uncertainty ranges around future projections, they enable us to appreciate better the implications for health and health policy of currently observed trends, and the likely impact of fairly certain future trends, such as the ageing of the population, the continued spread of HIV/AIDS in many regions, and the continuation of the epidemiological transition in developing countries. The results depend strongly on the assumption that future mortality trends in poor countries will have a relationship to economic and social development similar to those that have occurred in the higher-income countries.

Economic and technological aspects of the impact of PM2.5 particles on human health and productivity

Abstract: Over the past decades, technological and economic growth has significantly contributed to the improvement of the health care system through increased investment in technological research, training and the application of new technologies in health care. There is evidence that rapid technological and economic growth, contributing to the improvement of the health care system, also leads to a reduction in mortality rates, as well as to a longer life expectancy, which indirectly affects human activity in scientific and political spheres. At the same time, there is evidence that 2.5-micron particles (PM2.5 particles), as a result of industrial development and increased car use, have a negative impact on health outcomes around the world. This paper analyses the impact of increased concentration of PM2.5 particles in the air on economic and technological development, in order to explore whether there is an interdependent relationship between them. The paper aims to clarify the long-term effect of PM2.5 on health outcomes, control of technological and economic growth, as well as other important factors, based on the analysis of given panel data and the application of modern econometric methods. Accordingly, the purpose of this paper is to provide information on the negative impact of PM2.5 particles on human health, as an indirect impact on the development of new materials and technologies, taking into account socio-economic factors at the global level.

Hospital and community care costs for people newly diagnosed of living with HIV in London, UK

Abstract: ABSTRACT This study of people newly diagnosed of living with HIV (ND-PLHIV) calculated the use, cost and outcome of HIV services at a London HIV centre. ND-PLHIV were followed July 2017-October 2018. Hospital data included inpatient days (IP), outpatient (OP), dayward (DW) visits, tests and procedures, and anti-retroviral drugs (ARVs). Community services were recorded in daily diaries. Mean per patient-year (MPPY) use was multiplied by unit costs. 13.6 MPPY (95%CI 12.4–14.9) OP visits, 0.4 MPPY (95%CI 0.1–0.7) IP days, 0.09 MPPY (95%CI 0.01–0.2) DW visits and 4.6 MPPY community services (95%CI 3.4–5.8). Total annual costs per patient-year (CPPY) was £11,483 (95%CI £10,369–12,597): ARVs comprised 63% and community services 2%. White participants used fewer hospital and more community services compared with minority ethnic community (MEC) participants. Costs for White ND-PLHIV was £10,778 CPPY (95%CI £9629–11,928); £13,214 (95%CI £10,656–15,772) for MEC ND-PLHIV (p < 0.06). Annual costs were inversely related to CD4 count at entry (r = −5.58, p = 0.02); mean CD4 count was 476 cells/mm3 (95%CI 422–531) versus 373 cells/mm3 (95%CI 320–425) for White and MEC participants respectively (p = 0.03). Annual costs for ND-PLHIV with CD4 ≤ 350 cells/mm3 was £2478 PPY higher compared with CD4 count >350 cells/mm3 (p = 0.04).

Exploring relationships between HIV programme outcomes and the societal enabling environment: A structural equation modeling statistical analysis in 138 low- and middle-income countries

Abstract: Countries worldwide have attempted to reduce the incidence of HIV and AIDS associated deaths with varying success, despite significant progress in antiretroviral treatment (ART) and condom use. A chief obstacles is that key populations affected face high levels of stigma, discrimination and exclusion, limiting the successful response to HIV. However, a gap exists in studies demonstrating the moderation effects of societal enablers on overall programme effectiveness and HIV outcomes using quantitative methods.Structural Equation Modeling was used for 138 countries covering a 12-year period to examine how the unfavorable societal enabling environment, including stigma and discrimination, unfavorable legal environment and lack of access to societal justice, gender inequality and other unfavorable development situations affect the effectiveness of HIV programmes and HIV outcomes, while controlling for potentially confounding variables. The results only showed statistical significance when all four societal enablers were modeled as a composite. The findings show the direct and indirect standardized effects of unfavorable societal enabling environments to AIDS-related mortality among PLHIV are statistically significant and positive (0.26 and 0.08, respectively). We hypothesize that this may be because an unfavorable societal enabling environment can negatively affect adherence to ART, quality of healthcare and health seeking behavior. Higher ranked societal environments increase the effect of ART coverage on AIDS related mortality by about 50% in absolute value, that is -0.61 as against -0.39 for lower ranked societal environments. However, mixed results were obtained on the impact of societal enablers on changes in HIV incidence through condom use. Results indicate that countries with better societal enabling environments had fewer estimated new HIV infections and fewer AIDS-related deaths. The failure to include societal enabling environments in HIV response undermines efforts to achieve the 2025 HIV targets, and the related 2030 Sustainable Development indicator to end AIDS, even if sufficient resources are mobilized.

Global strategy for the diagnosis, management, and prevention of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: GOLD executive summary.

Abstract: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) remains a major public health problem. It is the fourth leading cause of chronic morbidity and mortality in the United States, and is projected to rank fifth in 2020 in burden of disease worldwide, according to a study published by the World Bank/World Health Organization. Yet, COPD remains relatively unknown or ignored by the public as well as public health and government officials. In 1998, in an effort to bring more attention to COPD, its management, and its prevention, a committed group of scientists encouraged the U.S. National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute and the World Health Organization to form the Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD). Among the important objectives of GOLD are to increase awareness of COPD and to help the millions of people who suffer from this disease and die prematurely of it or its complications. The first step in the GOLD program was to prepare a consensus report, Global Strategy for the Diagnosis, Management, and Prevention of COPD, published in 2001. The present, newly revised document follows the same format as the original consensus report, but has been updated to reflect the many publications on COPD that have appeared. GOLD national leaders, a network of international experts, have initiated investigations of the causes and prevalence of COPD in their countries, and developed innovative approaches for the dissemination and implementation of COPD management guidelines. We appreciate the enormous amount of work the GOLD national leaders have done on behalf of their patients with COPD. Despite the achievements in the 5 years since the GOLD report was originally published, considerable additional work is ahead of us if we are to control this major public health problem. The GOLD initiative will continue to bring COPD to the attention of governments, public health officials, health care workers, and the general public, but a concerted effort by all involved in health care will be necessary.

International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems

Abstract: Background—Although stroke and ischemic heart disease (IHD) have several well-established risk factors in common, the extent of global variation in the relative burdens of these forms of vascular disease and reasons for any observed variation are poorly understood. Methods and Results—We analyzed mortality and disability-adjusted life-year loss rates from stroke and IHD, as well as national estimates of vascular risk factors that have been developed by the World Health Organization Burden of Disease Program. National income data were derived from World Bank estimates. We used linear regression for univariable analysis and the Cuzick test for trends. Among 192 World Health Organization member countries, stroke mortality rates exceeded IHD rates in 74 countries (39%), and stroke disability-adjusted life-year loss rates exceeded IHD rates in 62 countries (32%). Stroke mortality ranged from 12.7% higher to 27.2% lower than IHD, and stroke disability-adjusted life-year loss rates ranged from 6.2% higher to 10.2% lower than IHD. Stroke burden was disproportionately higher in China, Africa, and South America, whereas IHD burden was higher in the Middle East, North America, Australia, and much of Europe. Lower national income was associated with higher relative mortality (P 0.001) and burden of disease (P 0.001) from stroke. Diabetes mellitus prevalence and mean serum cholesterol were each associated with greater relative burdens from IHD even after adjustment for national income. Conclusions—There is substantial global variation in the relative burden of stroke compared with IHD. The disproportionate burden from stroke for many lower-income countries suggests that distinct interventions may be required. (Circulation. 2011; 124:314-323.)

Overweight, Obesity, and Depression A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis of Longitudinal Studies

Abstract: Context: Association between obesity and depression has repeatedly been established. For treatment and prevention purposes, it is important to acquire more insight into their longitudinal interaction. Objective: To conduct a systematic review and meta-analysis on the longitudinal relationship between depression, overweight, and obesity and to identify possible influencing factors. Data Sources: Studies were found using PubMed, PsycINFO, and EMBASE databases and selected on several criteria. Study Selection: Studies examining the longitudinal bidirectional relation between depression and overweight (body mass index 25-29.99) or obesity (body mass index >= 30) were selected. Data Extraction: Unadjusted and adjusted odds ratios (ORs) were extracted or provided by the authors. Data Synthesis: Overall, unadjusted ORs were calculated and subgroup analyses were performed for the 15 included studies (N = 58 745) to estimate the effect of possible moderators (sex, age, depression severity). Obesity at baseline increased the risk of onset of depression at follow-up (unadjusted OR, 1.55; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.22-1.98; P = 60 years) but not among younger persons (aged < 20 years). Baseline depression (symptoms and disorder) was not predictive of overweight over time. However, depression increased the odds for developing obesity (OR, 1.58; 95% CI, 1.33-1.87; P < .001). Subgroup analyses did not reveal specific moderators of the association. Conclusions: This meta-analysis confirms a reciprocal link between depression and obesity. Obesity was found to increase the risk of depression, most pronounced among Americans and for clinically diagnosed depression. In addition, depression was found to be predictive of developing obesity.