Author
Detlev Heinemann
Other affiliations: University College West
Bio: Detlev Heinemann is an academic researcher from University of Oldenburg. The author has contributed to research in topics: Wind power & Solar irradiance. The author has an hindex of 28, co-authored 89 publications receiving 4108 citations. Previous affiliations of Detlev Heinemann include University College West.
Papers published on a yearly basis
Papers
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TL;DR: An approach to predict regional PV power output based on forecasts up to three days ahead provided by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and an approach to derive weather specific prediction intervals for irradiance forecasts are presented.
Abstract: The contribution of power production by photovoltaic (PV) systems to the electricity supply is constantly increasing. An efficient use of the fluctuating solar power production will highly benefit from forecast information on the expected power production. This forecast information is necessary for the management of the electricity grids and for solar energy trading. This paper presents an approach to predict regional PV power output based on forecasts up to three days ahead provided by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Focus of the paper is the description and evaluation of the approach of irradiance forecasting, which is the basis for PV power prediction. One day-ahead irradiance forecasts for single stations in Germany show a rRMSE of 36%. For regional forecasts, forecast accuracy is increasing in dependency on the size of the region. For the complete area of Germany, the rRMSE amounts to 13%. Besides the forecast accuracy, also the specification of the forecast uncertainty is an important issue for an effective application. We present and evaluate an approach to derive weather specific prediction intervals for irradiance forecasts. The accuracy of PV power prediction is investigated in a case study.
637 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the HELIOSAT method applied to derive surface solar irradiance from satellite images is described and shown examples of applications: the use of daylight in buildings, the generation of correlated time series of solar irradiances and temperature as input data for simulations of solar energy systems and a short-term forecast of sun irradiance which can be used in intelligent building control techniques.
387 citations
TL;DR: In this article, three independent validations of global horizontal irradiance (GHI) multi-day forecast models were conducted in the US, Canada and Europe, and two models are common to the three validation efforts: the ECMWF global model and the GFS-driven WRF mesoscale model.
288 citations
TL;DR: In this article, a new type of solar irradiance scheme is developed based on radiative transfer models (RTM) using atmospheric parameter information retrieved from the Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) satellite (clouds, ozone, water vapour) and the ERS-2/ENVISAT satellites (aerosols, ozone).
263 citations
TL;DR: The Heliosat method is a widely applied procedure for estimating solar irradiance fluxes at the earth's surface as discussed by the authors, which is based on the empirical correlation between a satellite derived cloud index and the irradiance at the ground.
258 citations
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01 Jan 1989
TL;DR: In this article, a two-dimensional version of the Pennsylvania State University mesoscale model has been applied to Winter Monsoon Experiment data in order to simulate the diurnally occurring convection observed over the South China Sea.
Abstract: Abstract A two-dimensional version of the Pennsylvania State University mesoscale model has been applied to Winter Monsoon Experiment data in order to simulate the diurnally occurring convection observed over the South China Sea. The domain includes a representation of part of Borneo as well as the sea so that the model can simulate the initiation of convection. Also included in the model are parameterizations of mesoscale ice phase and moisture processes and longwave and shortwave radiation with a diurnal cycle. This allows use of the model to test the relative importance of various heating mechanisms to the stratiform cloud deck, which typically occupies several hundred kilometers of the domain. Frank and Cohen's cumulus parameterization scheme is employed to represent vital unresolved vertical transports in the convective area. The major conclusions are: Ice phase processes are important in determining the level of maximum large-scale heating and vertical motion because there is a strong anvil componen...
3,813 citations
1,327 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors review different approaches, technologies, and strategies to manage large-scale schemes of variable renewable electricity such as solar and wind power, considering both supply and demand side measures.
Abstract: The paper reviews different approaches, technologies, and strategies to manage large-scale schemes of variable renewable electricity such as solar and wind power. We consider both supply and demand side measures. In addition to presenting energy system flexibility measures, their importance to renewable electricity is discussed. The flexibility measures available range from traditional ones such as grid extension or pumped hydro storage to more advanced strategies such as demand side management and demand side linked approaches, e.g. the use of electric vehicles for storing excess electricity, but also providing grid support services. Advanced batteries may offer new solutions in the future, though the high costs associated with batteries may restrict their use to smaller scale applications. Different “P2Y”-type of strategies, where P stands for surplus renewable power and Y for the energy form or energy service to which this excess in converted to, e.g. thermal energy, hydrogen, gas or mobility are receiving much attention as potential flexibility solutions, making use of the energy system as a whole. To “functionalize” or to assess the value of the various energy system flexibility measures, these need often be put into an electricity/energy market or utility service context. Summarizing, the outlook for managing large amounts of RE power in terms of options available seems to be promising.
1,180 citations
TL;DR: An overview of forecasting methods of solar irradiation using machine learning approaches is given and it will be shown that other methods begin to be used in this context of prediction.
1,095 citations
TL;DR: A review of the current methods and advances in wind power forecasting and prediction can be found in this article, where numerical wind power prediction methods from global to local scales, ensemble forecasting, upscaling and downscaling processes are discussed.
1,017 citations