Dirk Krueger

Bio: Dirk Krueger is an academic researcher from University of Pennsylvania. The author has contributed to research in topics: Consumption (economics) & Welfare. The author has an hindex of 46, co-authored 147 publications receiving 7766 citations. Previous affiliations of Dirk Krueger include Stanford University & Economic Policy Institute.

Does Income Inequality Lead to Consumption Inequality? Evidence and Theory

Abstract: This paper first documents the evolution of the cross-sectional income and consumption distribution in the US in the past 25 years. Using data from the Consumer Expenditure Survey we find that rising income inequality has not been accompanied by a corresponding rise in consumption inequality. Over the period from 1972 to 1998 the standard deviation of the log of after-tax labor income has increased by 20% while the standard deviation of log consumption has increased by less than 2%. Furthermore, income inequality has increased both between and within education groups while consumption inequality has increased between education groups but mildly declined within groups. We then argue that these empirical findings are consistent with the hypothesis that an increase in income volatility has been an important factor in the increase in income inequality, but at the same time has, endogenously, led to a better development of credit markets, allowing households to more effectively smooth their consumption against idiosyncratic income fluctuations. We develop a consumption model in which the sharing of income risk is limited by imperfect enforcement of credit contracts and in which the development of financial markets depends on the volatility of the individual income process. This model is shown to be quantitatively consistent with the joint evolution of income and consumption inequality in US, while other commonly used consumption models are not.

Taxing Capital? Not a Bad Idea after All!

Abstract: In this paper we quantitatively characterize the optimal capital and labor income tax in an overlapping generations model with idiosyncratic, uninsurable income shocks, where households also differ permanently with respect to their ability to generate income. The welfare criterion we employ is ex-ante (before ability is realized) expected (with respect to uninsurable productivity shocks) utility of a newborn in a stationary equilibrium. Embedded in this welfare criterion is a concern of the policy maker for insurance against idiosyncratic shocks and redistribution among agents of different abilities. Such insurance and redistribution can be achieved by progressive labor income taxes or taxation of capital income, or both. The policy maker has then to trade off these concerns against the standard distortions these taxes generate for the labor supply and capital accumulation decision. We find that the optimal capital income tax rate is not only positive, but is significantly positive. The optimal (marginal and average) tax rate on capital is 36%, in conjunction with a progressive labor income tax code that is, to a first approximation, a flat tax of 23% with a deduction that corresponds to about $6,000 (relative to an average income of households in the model of $35,000). We argue that the high optimal capital income tax is mainly driven by the life cycle structure of the model whereas the optimal progressivity of the labor income tax is due to the insurance and redistribution role of the income tax system.

Does Income Inequality Lead to Consumption Inequality

Abstract: This Paper first documents the evolution of the cross-sectional income and consumption distribution in the US in the past 25 years. Using data from the Consumer Expenditure Survey we find that a rising income inequality has not been accompanied by a corresponding rise in consumption inequality. Over the period from 1972-98 the standard deviation of the log of after-tax labor income has increased by 20% while the standard deviation of log consumption has increased less than 2%. Furthermore income inequality has increased both between and within education groups while consumption inequality has increased between education groups but mildly declined within groups. We then argue that these empirical findings are consistent with the hypothesis that an increase in income volatility has been an important cause of the increase in income inequality, but at the same time has lead to an endogenous development of credit markets, allowing households to better smooth their consumption against idiosyncratic income fluctuations. We develop a consumption model in which the sharing of income risk is limited by imperfect enforcement of credit contracts and in which the development of financial markets depends on the volatility of the individual income process. This model is shown to be quantitatively consistent with the joint evolution of income and consumption inequality in US, while other commonly used consumption models are not.

Taxing Capital? Not a Bad Idea after All!

Abstract: We quantitatively characterize the optimal capital and labor income tax in an overlapping generations model with idiosyncratic, uninsurable income shocks and permanent productivity difierences of households. The optimal capital income tax rate is signiflcantly positive at 36 percent. The optimal progressive labor income tax is, roughly, a ∞at tax of 23 percent with a deduction of $7,200 (relative to average household income of $42,000). The high optimal capital income tax is mainly driven by the life cycle structure of the model whereas the optimal progressivity of the labor income tax is attributable to the insurance and redistribution role of the tax system. JEL: E62, H21, H24

Economic growth and income inequality

Abstract: We investigate whether income inequality affects subsequent growth in a cross-country sample for 1965-90, using the models of Barro (1997), Bleaney and Nishiyama (2002) and Sachs and Warner (1997), with negative results. We then investigate the evolution of income inequality over the same period and its correlation with growth. The dominating feature is inequality convergence across countries. This convergence has been significantly faster amongst developed countries. Growth does not appear to influence the evolution of inequality over time. Outline

반도체 공정 overview

Abstract: With digital equipment becoming increasingly networked, either on wired or wireless networks, for personal and professional use alike, distributed software systems have become a crucial element in information and communications technologies. The study of these systems forms the core of the ARLES' work, which is specifically concerned with defining new system software architectures, based on the use of emerging networking technologies. In this context, we concentrate on the study of distributed systems which bring to life the vision of ubiquitous computing systems, also known as ambient intelligence.

Capital Flow Waves: Surges, Stops, Flights and Retranchment

Abstract: This paper analyzes the drivers of international waves in capital flows. We build on the literature on “sudden stops” and “bonanzas” to develop a new methodology for identifying episodes of extreme capital flow movements using quarterly data on gross inflows and gross outflows, differentiating activity by foreigners and domestics. We identify episodes of “surge”, “stop”, “flight”, and “retrenchment” and show how our approach yields fundamentally different results than the previous literature that used measures of net flows. Global factors, especially global risk, are the most important determinants of these episodes. Contagion, especially through trade and the bilateral exposure of banking systems, is important in determining stop and retrenchment episodes. Domestic macroeconomic characteristics are generally less important, although changes in domestic economic growth influence episodes caused by foreigners. We find little role for capital controls in reducing capital flow waves. The results help provide insights for different theoretical approaches explaining crises and capital flow volatility.

House Prices, Home Equity-Based Borrowing, and the U.S. Household Leverage Crisis

Abstract: Using individual-level data on homeowner debt and defaults from 1997 to 2008, we show that borrowing against the increase in home equity by existing homeowners is responsible for a significant fraction of both the rise in U.S. household leverage from 2002 to 2006 and the increase in defaults from 2006 to 2008. Employing land topology-based housing supply elasticity as an instrument for house price growth, we estimate that the average homeowner extracts 25 cents for every dollar increase in home equity. Home equity-based borrowing is stronger for younger households, households with low credit scores, and households with high initial credit card utilization rates. Money extracted from increased home equity is not used to purchase new real estate or pay down high credit card balances, which suggests that borrowed funds may be used for real outlays. Lower credit quality households living in high house price appreciation areas experience a relative decline in default rates from 2002 to 2006 as they borrow heavily against their home equity, but experience very high default rates from 2006 to 2008. Our conservative estimates suggest that home equity-based borrowing added $1.25 trillion in household debt, and accounts for at least 39% of new defaults from 2006 to 2008.