Dirk Muir

Bio: Dirk Muir is an academic researcher from International Monetary Fund. The author has contributed to research in topics: Fiscal policy & Monetary policy. The author has an hindex of 23, co-authored 82 publications receiving 2380 citations. Previous affiliations of Dirk Muir include Bank of Canada.

Effects of Fiscal Stimulus in Structural Models

Abstract: The paper assesses, using seven structural models used heavily by policymaking institutions, the effectiveness of temporary fiscal stimulus. Models can, more easily than empirical studies, account for differences between fiscal instruments, for differences between structural characteristics of the economy, and for monetary-fiscal policy interactions. Findings are: (i) There is substantial agreement across models on the sizes of fiscal multipliers. (ii) The sizes of spending and targeted transfers multipliers are large. (iii) Fiscal policy is most effective if it has some persistence and if monetary policy accommodates it. (iv) The perception of permanent fiscal stimulus leads to significantly lower initial multipliers.

Effects of Fiscal Stimulus in Structural Models

Abstract: The paper subjects seven structural DSGE models, all used heavily by policymaking institutions, to discretionary fiscal stimulus shocks using seven different fiscal instruments, and compares the results to those of two prominent academic DSGE models. There is considerable agreement across models on both the absolute and relative sizes of different types of fiscal multipliers. The size of many multipliers is large, particularly for spending and targeted transfers. Fiscal policy is most effective if it has moderate persistence and if monetary policy is accommodative. Permanently higher spending or deficits imply significantly lower initial multipliers. (JEL E12, E13, E52, E62)

Smooth landing or crash? model based scenarios of global current account rebalancing

Abstract: This paper re-examines the implications, risks, and attendant policies surrounding global rebalancing of current accounts through the lens of a dynamic, multi-region model of the global economy In the baseline scenario, world macroeconomic imbalances of the early 2000s can be attributed to a combination of six related but distinct tendencies: (i)expansionary US fiscal policy, (ii) declining rate of US private savings, (iii) increased foreign demand for US assets, particularly in Asia, (iv) strong productivity growth in emerging Asia, (v) lagging productivity growth in Japan and the euro area, and (vi) gaining export competitiveness in emerging Asia The baseline projects stabilizing US public and foreign debt (albeit at higher levels) and a gradual depreciation of the dollar, allowing the US external deficit to gradually move to a sustainable level An alternative scenario, involving a sudden portfolio reshuffling in the rest of the world, would result in higher US real interest rates, a significantly weaker dollar, with harmful effects on US (and possibly global) growth More flexible exchange rates in emerging Asia can help reduce variability in both regional output and inflation Other simulations consider the effects of US fiscal adjustment, as well as growth-enhancing structural reforms in Europe and Japan

The Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal Model (GIMF) – Theoretical Structure

Abstract: This working paper presents a comprehensive overview of the theoretical structure of the Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal Model (GIMF), a multi-region dynamic general equilibrium model that is used by the IMF for a variety of tasks including policy analysis, risk analysis, and surveillance.

The Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal Model (GIMF) – Theoretical Structure

Abstract: This working paper presents a comprehensive overview of the theoretical structure of the Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal Model (GIMF), a multi-region dynamic general equilibrium model that is used by the IMF for a variety of tasks including policy analysis, risk analysis, and surveillance

Federal Reserve Bank of New Yorkの制定せる財務諸表様式について

Abstract: Enclosed is a copy of the Board of Governors’ Semiannual Agenda of Regulations for the period August 1, 1980 through February 1, 1981. The Semiannual Agenda provides you with information on those regulatory matters that the Board now has under consideration or anticipates considering over the next six months, and is divided into three parts: (1) regulatory matters that the Board had considered during the previous six months on which final action has been taken; (2) regulatory matters that have been proposed for public comment and that require further Board consideration; and (3) regulatory matters that the Board may consider over the next six months.

Simple Analytics of the Government Expenditure Multiplier

Abstract: This paper explains the key factors that determine the output multiplier of government purchases in New Keynesian models, through a series of simple examples that can be solved analytically. Sticky prices or wages allow for larger multipliers than in a neoclassical model, though the size of the multiplier depends crucially on the monetary policy response. A multiplier well in excess of 1 is possible when monetary policy is constrained by the zero lower bound, and in this case welfare increases if government purchases expand to partially flll the output gap that arises from the inability to lower interest rates.

Financial Integration, Financial Development, and Global Imbalances

Abstract: Global financial imbalances can result from financial integration when countries differ in financial markets development. Countries with more advanced financial markets accumulate foreign liabilities in a gradual, long‐lasting process. Differences in financial development also affect the composition of foreign portfolios: countries with negative net foreign asset positions maintain positive net holdings of nondiversifiable equity and foreign direct investment. Three observations motivate our analysis: (1) financial development varies widely even among industrial countries, with the United States on top; (2) the secular decline in the U.S. net foreign asset position started in the early 1980s, together with a gradual process of international financial integration; (3) the portfolio composition of U.S. net foreign assets features increased holdings of risky assets and a large increase in debt.

Growth Forecast Errors and Fiscal Multipliers

Abstract: This paper investigates the relation between growth forecast errors and planned fiscal consolidation during the crisis. We find that, in advanced economies, stronger planned fiscal consolidation has been associated with lower growth than expected, with the relation being particularly strong, both statistically and economically, early in the crisis. A natural interpretation is that fiscal multipliers were substantially higher than implicitly assumed by forecasters. The weaker relation in more recent years may reflect in part learning by forecasters and in part smaller multipliers than in the early years of the crisis.