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Donald Maxwell Parkin

Bio: Donald Maxwell Parkin is an academic researcher from University of Oxford. The author has contributed to research in topics: Population & Cancer. The author has an hindex of 87, co-authored 259 publications receiving 71469 citations. Previous affiliations of Donald Maxwell Parkin include University of California, Los Angeles & Queen Mary University of London.


Papers
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Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The majority of the global cancer burden now occurs in developing countries, and these proportions will rise in the next decades if rates remain unchanged, according to the International Agency for Research on Cancer's GLOBOCAN report.
Abstract: Dear Editor, In a recent paper in the IJC, Ferlay et al. report on the results of the latest update of GLOBOCAN, released on 1st June 2010 by the International Agency for Research on Cancer. GLOBOCAN 2008 is an important resource for cancer research and health policy. Mortality and incidence estimates of crude rates, age-standardized rates and absolute number of cases by country and sex for the year 2008 are provided. We agree with their conclusion that ‘‘Already the majority of the global cancer burden now occurs in developing countries, these proportions will rise in the next decades if rates remain unchanged.’’ Given the demographic transition that is ongoing in developing countries, the absolute numbers will almost certainly rise in the future. In Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), population-based data on lung cancer incidence or mortality are not available, except South Africa and smaller island states. GLOBOCAN uses

1 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: Analysis of the most recently released data and projections to 2030 using all data up to 2009, and also limited the analysis to data between 1975 and 2005, finds that the old data yield particularly optimistic projections, but by including the most recent 4 years of the new data the projections are more optimistic than when these data are excluded.
Abstract: Sir, We would like to thank Oliver et al (2013) for bringing to our attention these data issues. After careful checking, it is clear that the main source of discrepancy is the difference between the numbers of cancer registrations for 2004–2007, as available in 2010, and the updated numbers released in 2011. Whereas we were aware that there can be substantial delays in registration of some cancers, we had assumed that any changes made after the data are first published would be trivial at a population level and would not affect the analysis of trends over time. Unfortunately, we were wrong. Our projections for leukemia, in particular, are likely to have substantially underestimated the future burden of the disease. Consider the numbers of all cancers (excluding non-melanoma skin cancer) in 2004 in England; according to the MB1 no. 35 (released: 19 December 2006), there were 233 621 cancer cases, but updated statistics released in 2011 recorded 241 700 cases – an increase of 3.3%. The change is particularly great for leukemia (ICD-10: C91–C95; 10.5%) and myeloma (C90; 8.8%). In Table 1, we show how the age-standardised rates of leukemia for each year between 2005 and 2009 has increased in successive data releases. The increase in rates as the data matures will severely distort recent trends and will attenuate projections downwards. Table 1 Age-standardised rates (per 100 000 person years) for leukaemia (C91–95) in England as estimated in successive annual data releases Statistical methods for predicting the eventual number of registrations for each of the last few years deserve a separate investigation, but any approach will need to take into account the changing methodology used in cancer registration, as that will have lead to more timely registration of many tumours. We urge the Office for National Statistics to consider publishing estimated ‘complete registration' data using, for instance, the method adopted by the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (Midthune et al, 2005), who published both unadjusted and delay-adjusted rates (National Cancer Institute, 2012). Here we simply note that the issue is present for virtually all cancer sites to a greater or lesser extent, but appears to be independent of sex and age for any given site (Table 2). Table 2 Change in cancer registrations for 2004 (England) between 2006 and 2011 We have analysed the most recently released data and made projections to 2030 using all data up to 2009, and also limited the analysis to data between 1975 and 2005. The resulting fits for leukemia are shown in Figure 1, together with our previously published results based on the data from the 2010 release for 1975–2007. It is seen that the old data yield particularly optimistic projections, but by including the most recent 4 years of the new data the projections are more optimistic than when these data are excluded. We have also projected all cancers (excluding non-melanoma skin cancer) other than prostate cancer in men and all cancers other than breast cancer in women, treating them as a single site. The reason for the exclusion of prostate and breast cancer is that their incidence has been hugely affected by PSA testing and screening mammography so that the age-period cohort model does not provide a reasonable fit. Our projections based on the 2010 data are very similar to those using the 2011 data for 1975–2005, but are somewhat lower than those that include data for 2006–2009 (Figure 1). The projections using data only up to 2005 are more than 10% lower than those including data for 2006–2007, and projections including data up to 2009 are about 5% greater still (even without adjusting for late registration bias). Figure 1 Observed and projected rates of cancers in Great Britain based on three different data sets. (A) Leukaemia (male). (B) Leukaemia (female). (C) All non-prostate male cancers. (D) All non-breast female cancers. Rates per 100 000 are age-standardised ... Table 3 summarises the effect of using different data sets on age-standardised projections for 2030 for leukaemia, non-Hodgkin lymphoma, myeloma, and for all non-prostate male cancers and non-breast female cancers. The increase in projected rates for 2030, although not quite as great as obtained by Oliver et al (2013), is substantial (about 11% for non-Hodgkin lymphoma and 20–25% for leukemia and myeloma). The projected rates for all non-prostate and non-breast cancers for 2030 are about 9% greater using the new data than they are using the old data (in both cases for 1975–2007). Table 3 Projected (European) age-standardised rates (per 100 000) for 2030 of haematological cancers based on various data sets In summary, late registrations, particularly of haematological cancers, have a profound effect on observed trends in cancer incidence and should be taken into account when projecting future rates.

1 citations

Book
31 Jul 1993

1 citations

01 Jan 1991
TL;DR: Investigation of ethnic differentials in cancer risk in Brazil for the period 1969-1974 finds blacks and mulattos are at higher risk than whites for cancer of the esophagus, stomach, and liver and for myeloma; for prostate cancer in males; and for gall bladder, pancreas, and cervix uteri cancers in females.
Abstract: Data from the S#{227}o Paulo Cancer Registry (Brazil) for the period 1969-1974 are used to investigate ethnic differentials in cancer risk. Risks for specific cancers were estimated for mulattos and blacks relative to whites, using a case-control approach with other cancers as controls. For both sexes, blacks and mulattos are at higher risk than whites for cancer of the esophagus, stomach, and liver and for myeloma; for prostate cancer in males; and for gall bladder, pancreas, and cervix uteri cancers in females. Blacks and mulattos are at lower risk than whites for cancer of the colon, lung, larynx (males only), bladder, bone, testis, breast, and corpus uteri and for melanoma and leukemia. Except for lung and colon cancers, for which life-style habits are the main risk fadors, these ethnic differences are similar to those observed in the United States.

1 citations


Cited by
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Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: A status report on the global burden of cancer worldwide using the GLOBOCAN 2018 estimates of cancer incidence and mortality produced by the International Agency for Research on Cancer, with a focus on geographic variability across 20 world regions.
Abstract: This article provides a status report on the global burden of cancer worldwide using the GLOBOCAN 2018 estimates of cancer incidence and mortality produced by the International Agency for Research on Cancer, with a focus on geographic variability across 20 world regions There will be an estimated 181 million new cancer cases (170 million excluding nonmelanoma skin cancer) and 96 million cancer deaths (95 million excluding nonmelanoma skin cancer) in 2018 In both sexes combined, lung cancer is the most commonly diagnosed cancer (116% of the total cases) and the leading cause of cancer death (184% of the total cancer deaths), closely followed by female breast cancer (116%), prostate cancer (71%), and colorectal cancer (61%) for incidence and colorectal cancer (92%), stomach cancer (82%), and liver cancer (82%) for mortality Lung cancer is the most frequent cancer and the leading cause of cancer death among males, followed by prostate and colorectal cancer (for incidence) and liver and stomach cancer (for mortality) Among females, breast cancer is the most commonly diagnosed cancer and the leading cause of cancer death, followed by colorectal and lung cancer (for incidence), and vice versa (for mortality); cervical cancer ranks fourth for both incidence and mortality The most frequently diagnosed cancer and the leading cause of cancer death, however, substantially vary across countries and within each country depending on the degree of economic development and associated social and life style factors It is noteworthy that high-quality cancer registry data, the basis for planning and implementing evidence-based cancer control programs, are not available in most low- and middle-income countries The Global Initiative for Cancer Registry Development is an international partnership that supports better estimation, as well as the collection and use of local data, to prioritize and evaluate national cancer control efforts CA: A Cancer Journal for Clinicians 2018;0:1-31 © 2018 American Cancer Society

58,675 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: A substantial proportion of the worldwide burden of cancer could be prevented through the application of existing cancer control knowledge and by implementing programs for tobacco control, vaccination, and early detection and treatment, as well as public health campaigns promoting physical activity and a healthier dietary intake.
Abstract: The global burden of cancer continues to increase largely because of the aging and growth of the world population alongside an increasing adoption of cancer-causing behaviors, particularly smoking, in economically developing countries. Based on the GLOBOCAN 2008 estimates, about 12.7 million cancer cases and 7.6 million cancer deaths are estimated to have occurred in 2008; of these, 56% of the cases and 64% of the deaths occurred in the economically developing world. Breast cancer is the most frequently diagnosed cancer and the leading cause of cancer death among females, accounting for 23% of the total cancer cases and 14% of the cancer deaths. Lung cancer is the leading cancer site in males, comprising 17% of the total new cancer cases and 23% of the total cancer deaths. Breast cancer is now also the leading cause of cancer death among females in economically developing countries, a shift from the previous decade during which the most common cause of cancer death was cervical cancer. Further, the mortality burden for lung cancer among females in developing countries is as high as the burden for cervical cancer, with each accounting for 11% of the total female cancer deaths. Although overall cancer incidence rates in the developing world are half those seen in the developed world in both sexes, the overall cancer mortality rates are generally similar. Cancer survival tends to be poorer in developing countries, most likely because of a combination of a late stage at diagnosis and limited access to timely and standard treatment. A substantial proportion of the worldwide burden of cancer could be prevented through the application of existing cancer control knowledge and by implementing programs for tobacco control, vaccination (for liver and cervical cancers), and early detection and treatment, as well as public health campaigns promoting physical activity and a healthier dietary intake. Clinicians, public health professionals, and policy makers can play an active role in accelerating the application of such interventions globally.

52,293 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The GLOBOCAN 2020 estimates of cancer incidence and mortality produced by the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) as mentioned in this paper show that female breast cancer has surpassed lung cancer as the most commonly diagnosed cancer, with an estimated 2.3 million new cases (11.7%), followed by lung cancer, colorectal (11 4.4%), liver (8.3%), stomach (7.7%) and female breast (6.9%), and cervical cancer (5.6%) cancers.
Abstract: This article provides an update on the global cancer burden using the GLOBOCAN 2020 estimates of cancer incidence and mortality produced by the International Agency for Research on Cancer. Worldwide, an estimated 19.3 million new cancer cases (18.1 million excluding nonmelanoma skin cancer) and almost 10.0 million cancer deaths (9.9 million excluding nonmelanoma skin cancer) occurred in 2020. Female breast cancer has surpassed lung cancer as the most commonly diagnosed cancer, with an estimated 2.3 million new cases (11.7%), followed by lung (11.4%), colorectal (10.0 %), prostate (7.3%), and stomach (5.6%) cancers. Lung cancer remained the leading cause of cancer death, with an estimated 1.8 million deaths (18%), followed by colorectal (9.4%), liver (8.3%), stomach (7.7%), and female breast (6.9%) cancers. Overall incidence was from 2-fold to 3-fold higher in transitioned versus transitioning countries for both sexes, whereas mortality varied <2-fold for men and little for women. Death rates for female breast and cervical cancers, however, were considerably higher in transitioning versus transitioned countries (15.0 vs 12.8 per 100,000 and 12.4 vs 5.2 per 100,000, respectively). The global cancer burden is expected to be 28.4 million cases in 2040, a 47% rise from 2020, with a larger increase in transitioning (64% to 95%) versus transitioned (32% to 56%) countries due to demographic changes, although this may be further exacerbated by increasing risk factors associated with globalization and a growing economy. Efforts to build a sustainable infrastructure for the dissemination of cancer prevention measures and provision of cancer care in transitioning countries is critical for global cancer control.

35,190 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The GLOBOCAN series of the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) as mentioned in this paper provides estimates of the worldwide incidence and mortality from 27 major cancers and for all cancers combined for 2012.
Abstract: Estimates of the worldwide incidence and mortality from 27 major cancers and for all cancers combined for 2012 are now available in the GLOBOCAN series of the International Agency for Research on Cancer. We review the sources and methods used in compiling the national cancer incidence and mortality estimates, and briefly describe the key results by cancer site and in 20 large “areas” of the world. Overall, there were 14.1 million new cases and 8.2 million deaths in 2012. The most commonly diagnosed cancers were lung (1.82 million), breast (1.67 million), and colorectal (1.36 million); the most common causes of cancer death were lung cancer (1.6 million deaths), liver cancer (745,000 deaths), and stomach cancer (723,000 deaths).

24,414 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: A substantial portion of cancer cases and deaths could be prevented by broadly applying effective prevention measures, such as tobacco control, vaccination, and the use of early detection tests.
Abstract: Cancer constitutes an enormous burden on society in more and less economically developed countries alike. The occurrence of cancer is increasing because of the growth and aging of the population, as well as an increasing prevalence of established risk factors such as smoking, overweight, physical inactivity, and changing reproductive patterns associated with urbanization and economic development. Based on GLOBOCAN estimates, about 14.1 million new cancer cases and 8.2 million deaths occurred in 2012 worldwide. Over the years, the burden has shifted to less developed countries, which currently account for about 57% of cases and 65% of cancer deaths worldwide. Lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer death among males in both more and less developed countries, and has surpassed breast cancer as the leading cause of cancer death among females in more developed countries; breast cancer remains the leading cause of cancer death among females in less developed countries. Other leading causes of cancer death in more developed countries include colorectal cancer among males and females and prostate cancer among males. In less developed countries, liver and stomach cancer among males and cervical cancer among females are also leading causes of cancer death. Although incidence rates for all cancers combined are nearly twice as high in more developed than in less developed countries in both males and females, mortality rates are only 8% to 15% higher in more developed countries. This disparity reflects regional differences in the mix of cancers, which is affected by risk factors and detection practices, and/or the availability of treatment. Risk factors associated with the leading causes of cancer death include tobacco use (lung, colorectal, stomach, and liver cancer), overweight/obesity and physical inactivity (breast and colorectal cancer), and infection (liver, stomach, and cervical cancer). A substantial portion of cancer cases and deaths could be prevented by broadly applying effective prevention measures, such as tobacco control, vaccination, and the use of early detection tests.

23,203 citations