This article provides a status report on the global burden of cancer worldwide using the GLOBOCAN 2018 estimates of cancer incidence and mortality produced by the International Agency for Research on Cancer, with a focus on geographic variability across 20 world regions There will be an estimated 181 million new cancer cases (170 million excluding nonmelanoma skin cancer) and 96 million cancer deaths (95 million excluding nonmelanoma skin cancer) in 2018 In both sexes combined, lung cancer is the most commonly diagnosed cancer (116% of the total cases) and the leading cause of cancer death (184% of the total cancer deaths), closely followed by female breast cancer (116%), prostate cancer (71%), and colorectal cancer (61%) for incidence and colorectal cancer (92%), stomach cancer (82%), and liver cancer (82%) for mortality Lung cancer is the most frequent cancer and the leading cause of cancer death among males, followed by prostate and colorectal cancer (for incidence) and liver and stomach cancer (for mortality) Among females, breast cancer is the most commonly diagnosed cancer and the leading cause of cancer death, followed by colorectal and lung cancer (for incidence), and vice versa (for mortality); cervical cancer ranks fourth for both incidence and mortality The most frequently diagnosed cancer and the leading cause of cancer death, however, substantially vary across countries and within each country depending on the degree of economic development and associated social and life style factors It is noteworthy that high-quality cancer registry data, the basis for planning and implementing evidence-based cancer control programs, are not available in most low- and middle-income countries The Global Initiative for Cancer Registry Development is an international partnership that supports better estimation, as well as the collection and use of local data, to prioritize and evaluate national cancer control efforts CA: A Cancer Journal for Clinicians 2018;0:1-31 © 2018 American Cancer Society

https://acsjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.3322/caac.21492

Global cancer statistics 2018: GLOBOCAN estimates of incidence and mortality worldwide for 36 cancers in 185 countries

The global burden of cancer continues to increase largely because of the aging and growth of the world population alongside an increasing adoption of cancer-causing behaviors, particularly smoking, in economically developing countries. Based on the GLOBOCAN 2008 estimates, about 12.7 million cancer cases and 7.6 million cancer deaths are estimated to have occurred in 2008; of these, 56% of the cases and 64% of the deaths occurred in the economically developing world. Breast cancer is the most frequently diagnosed cancer and the leading cause of cancer death among females, accounting for 23% of the total cancer cases and 14% of the cancer deaths. Lung cancer is the leading cancer site in males, comprising 17% of the total new cancer cases and 23% of the total cancer deaths. Breast cancer is now also the leading cause of cancer death among females in economically developing countries, a shift from the previous decade during which the most common cause of cancer death was cervical cancer. Further, the mortality burden for lung cancer among females in developing countries is as high as the burden for cervical cancer, with each accounting for 11% of the total female cancer deaths. Although overall cancer incidence rates in the developing world are half those seen in the developed world in both sexes, the overall cancer mortality rates are generally similar. Cancer survival tends to be poorer in developing countries, most likely because of a combination of a late stage at diagnosis and limited access to timely and standard treatment. A substantial proportion of the worldwide burden of cancer could be prevented through the application of existing cancer control knowledge and by implementing programs for tobacco control, vaccination (for liver and cervical cancers), and early detection and treatment, as well as public health campaigns promoting physical activity and a healthier dietary intake. Clinicians, public health professionals, and policy makers can play an active role in accelerating the application of such interventions globally.

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Global cancer statistics

This article provides an update on the global cancer burden using the GLOBOCAN 2020 estimates of cancer incidence and mortality produced by the International Agency for Research on Cancer. Worldwide, an estimated 19.3 million new cancer cases (18.1 million excluding nonmelanoma skin cancer) and almost 10.0 million cancer deaths (9.9 million excluding nonmelanoma skin cancer) occurred in 2020. Female breast cancer has surpassed lung cancer as the most commonly diagnosed cancer, with an estimated 2.3 million new cases (11.7%), followed by lung (11.4%), colorectal (10.0 %), prostate (7.3%), and stomach (5.6%) cancers. Lung cancer remained the leading cause of cancer death, with an estimated 1.8 million deaths (18%), followed by colorectal (9.4%), liver (8.3%), stomach (7.7%), and female breast (6.9%) cancers. Overall incidence was from 2-fold to 3-fold higher in transitioned versus transitioning countries for both sexes, whereas mortality varied <2-fold for men and little for women. Death rates for female breast and cervical cancers, however, were considerably higher in transitioning versus transitioned countries (15.0 vs 12.8 per 100,000 and 12.4 vs 5.2 per 100,000, respectively). The global cancer burden is expected to be 28.4 million cases in 2040, a 47% rise from 2020, with a larger increase in transitioning (64% to 95%) versus transitioned (32% to 56%) countries due to demographic changes, although this may be further exacerbated by increasing risk factors associated with globalization and a growing economy. Efforts to build a sustainable infrastructure for the dissemination of cancer prevention measures and provision of cancer care in transitioning countries is critical for global cancer control.

https://acsjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.3322/caac.21660

Global Cancer Statistics 2020: GLOBOCAN Estimates of Incidence and Mortality Worldwide for 36 Cancers in 185 Countries.

Estimates of the worldwide incidence and mortality from 27 major cancers and for all cancers combined for 2012 are now available in the GLOBOCAN series of the International Agency for Research on Cancer. We review the sources and methods used in compiling the national cancer incidence and mortality estimates, and briefly describe the key results by cancer site and in 20 large “areas” of the world. Overall, there were 14.1 million new cases and 8.2 million deaths in 2012. The most commonly diagnosed cancers were lung (1.82 million), breast (1.67 million), and colorectal (1.36 million); the most common causes of cancer death were lung cancer (1.6 million deaths), liver cancer (745,000 deaths), and stomach cancer (723,000 deaths).

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Cancer incidence and mortality worldwide: sources, methods and major patterns in GLOBOCAN 2012.

Cancer constitutes an enormous burden on society in more and less economically developed countries alike. The occurrence of cancer is increasing because of the growth and aging of the population, as well as an increasing prevalence of established risk factors such as smoking, overweight, physical inactivity, and changing reproductive patterns associated with urbanization and economic development. Based on GLOBOCAN estimates, about 14.1 million new cancer cases and 8.2 million deaths occurred in 2012 worldwide. Over the years, the burden has shifted to less developed countries, which currently account for about 57% of cases and 65% of cancer deaths worldwide. Lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer death among males in both more and less developed countries, and has surpassed breast cancer as the leading cause of cancer death among females in more developed countries; breast cancer remains the leading cause of cancer death among females in less developed countries. Other leading causes of cancer death in more developed countries include colorectal cancer among males and females and prostate cancer among males. In less developed countries, liver and stomach cancer among males and cervical cancer among females are also leading causes of cancer death. Although incidence rates for all cancers combined are nearly twice as high in more developed than in less developed countries in both males and females, mortality rates are only 8% to 15% higher in more developed countries. This disparity reflects regional differences in the mix of cancers, which is affected by risk factors and detection practices, and/or the availability of treatment. Risk factors associated with the leading causes of cancer death include tobacco use (lung, colorectal, stomach, and liver cancer), overweight/obesity and physical inactivity (breast and colorectal cancer), and infection (liver, stomach, and cervical cancer). A substantial portion of cancer cases and deaths could be prevented by broadly applying effective prevention measures, such as tobacco control, vaccination, and the use of early detection tests.

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Global cancer statistics, 2012

Liver cancer is the most common cancer in Khon Kaen, Northeast Thailand, because of the high incidence of cholangiocarcinoma (CHCA). Opisthorchis viverrini (OV), a liver fluke, is endemic in the area, and has been evaluated as a cause of CHCA by International Agency for Research on Cancer. Residents of 20 districts in the province were invited to attend a mobile screening programme between 1990 and 2001. Of 24 723 participants, 18 393 aged 35-69 years were tested for OV infection, by examining stools for the presence of eggs. Prevalence of infection in each district was estimated from the sample of the population who had been tested. The incidence of liver cancer in 1990-2001 was obtained for each district from the cancer registry. The average crude prevalence of OV infection in the sample subjects was 24.5%, ranging from 2.1% to 70.8% in different districts. Truncated age-standardized incidence of CHCA at ages >35 years varied threefold between districts, from 93.8 to 317.6 per 100,000 person-years. After adjustment for age group, sex and period of sampling, there was a positive association between prevalence of OV infection and incidence of CHCA at the population level. Associations between CHCA and active OV infection in individuals have become hard to demonstrate, because of effective anti-OV treatment. The relationship may, however, be clear in comparisons between populations, which, for infectious diseases, take into account the contextual effects of group exposure in determining individual outcome. The cancer registry is an appropriate tool for disease monitoring in small areas.

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/j.1365-3156.2004.01234.x

Prevalence of Opisthorchis viverrini infection and incidence of cholangiocarcinoma in Khon Kaen, Northeast Thailand

There are no national-level data on cancer mortality in China since two surveys in 1973-1975 and 1990-1992 (a 10% sample), but ongoing surveillance systems, based on nonrandom selected populations, give an indication as to the trends for major cancers. Based on a log-linear regression model with Poisson errors, the annual rates of change for 10 cancers and all other cancers combined, by age, sex and urban/rural residence were estimated from the data of the surveillance system of the Center for Health Information and Statistics, covering about 10% of the national population. These rates of change were applied to the survey data of 1990-1992 to estimate national mortality in the year 2000, and to make projections for 2005. Mortality rates for all cancers combined, adjusted for age, are predicted to change little between 1991 and 2005 (-0.8% in men and +2.5% in women), but population growth and ageing will result in an increasing number of deaths, from 1.2 to 1.8 million. The largest predicted increases are for the numbers of female breast (+155.4%) and lung cancers (+112.1% in men, +153.5% in women). For these two sites, mortality rates will almost double. Cancer will make an increasing contribution to the burden of diseases in China in the 21st century. The marked increases in risk of cancers of the lung, female breast and large bowel indicate priorities for prevention and control. The increasing trends in young age groups for cancers of the cervix, lung and female breast suggest that their predicted increases may be underestimated, and that more attention should be paid to strategies for their prevention and control.

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Estimation and projection of the national profile of cancer mortality in China: 1991-2005.

BACKGROUND

Organized cervical cytology screening programs are not feasible in many developing countries where cervical carcinoma is an important cause of mortality among adult women. This study compared visual inspection of the cervix after application of 3-4% acetic acid (VIA, or cervicoscopy) with cytology as methods for the detection of cervical carcinoma and its precursors.



METHODS

Three thousand women were examined by both VIA and cytology. Those positive on one or both of the screening tests (n = 423) or those who had clinically suspicious lesions even if the tests were negative (n = 215) were invited for colposcopy. Directed biopsies were obtained from 277 of 573 women at colposcopy. Those with moderate dysplasia or worse lesions diagnosed by histology were considered true-positives. Those with no lesions or with reactive or reparative changes at colposcopy and those for whom histology revealed no pathology, reactive or reparative changes, atypia, or mild dysplasia were considered false-positives. The detection rate of true-positive cases and the approximate specificity of the two tests were compared.



RESULTS

VIA was positive in 298 women (9.8%), and cytology was positive (for atypia or worse lesions) in 307 women (10.2%). Of the 51 true-positive cases (20 cases of moderate dysplasia, 7 of severe dysplasia, 12 of carcinoma in situ, and 12 of invasive carcinoma), VIA detected 46 (90.1%) and cytology 44 (86.2%), yielding a sensitivity ratio of 1.05. VIA detected five lesions missed by cytology, and cytology detected three missed by VIA; both missed two lesions. The approximate specificities were 92.2% for VIA and 91.3% for cytology. The positive predictive value of VIA was 17.0%, and that of cytology was 17.2%.



CONCLUSIONS

These results indicate that VIA and cytology had very similar performance in detecting moderate dysplasia or more severe lesions in this study. VIA merits further evaluation as a primary screening test in low-resource settings. Cancer 1998;83:2150-2156. © 1998 American Cancer Society.

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/%28SICI%291097-0142%2819981115%2983%3A10%3C2150%3A%3AAID-CNCR13%3E3.0.CO%3B2-0

Visual inspection of the uterine cervix after the application of acetic acid in the detection of cervical carcinoma and its precursors

Projections of cancer incidence are important for planning health services and to provide a baseline for assessing the impact of public health interventions. Rates estimated from smooth function age–period–cohort modelling of cancer incidence data from Great Britain 1975 to 2007 are extrapolated to 2030 and applied to UK population projections. Prostate and breast cancer projections take into account the effect of screening. Overall rates of cancer are projected to be stable over the next 20 years, but this masks individual changes. In both sexes, age-standardised rates of cancers of the stomach, larynx, bladder and leukaemia are projected to fall by ⩾1% per year, whereas cancers of the lip, mouth and pharynx (ICD-10 C00-C14) and melanoma are projected to increase by ⩾1% per year. The growing and aging populations will have a substantial impact: numbers of cancers in men and women are projected to increase by 55% (from 149 169 to 231 026) and 35% (from 148 716 to 200 929), respectively, between 2007 and 2030. The model used yields similar results to those of Nordpred, but is more flexible. Without new initiatives for smoking and obesity reduction, the number of cancers in the United Kingdom will increase substantially reflecting the growing and aging populations.

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Cancer incidence in the United Kingdom: projections to the year 2030

Incidence rates of different cancers have been calculated for the population of Kyadondo County (Kampala, Uganda) for a 16-year period (1991-2006). This period coincides with continuing social and lifestyle changes and the peak and subsequent wane of the epidemic of HIV-AIDS. There has been an overall increase in the risk of cancer during the period in both sexes, with the incidence rates of cancers of the breast and prostate showing particularly marked increases (4.5% annually). Prostate cancer is now the most common cancer in men. The incidence of cancer of the esophagus, formerly the most common cancer in men and second in frequency in women, has remained relatively constant, whereas the incidence of cancer of the cervix, the most common malignancy in women, continues to increase. Since the early 1990s the incidence of Kaposi sarcoma (KS) in men has declined, and while remaining relatively constant in women, it has been diagnosed at progressively later ages. The rates of pediatric KS have declined by about 1/3rd. The incidence of squamous cell cancers of the conjunctiva has also declined since the mid 1990s. Cancer control in Uganda, as elsewhere in sub-Saharan Africa, involves meeting the challenge of emerging cancers associated with westernization of lifestyles (large bowel, breast and prostate); although the incidence of cancers associated with poverty and infection (liver, cervix, esophagus) shows little decline, the residual burden of the AIDS-associated cancers remains a major burden.

https://www.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/ijc.24838

Donald Maxwell Parkin

Papers

Prevalence of Opisthorchis viverrini infection and incidence of cholangiocarcinoma in Khon Kaen, Northeast Thailand

Estimation and projection of the national profile of cancer mortality in China: 1991-2005.

Visual inspection of the uterine cervix after the application of acetic acid in the detection of cervical carcinoma and its precursors

Cancer incidence in the United Kingdom: projections to the year 2030

Changing cancer incidence in Kampala, Uganda, 1991-2006.