Showing papers by "Duncan J. Watts published in 2007"

Influentials, Networks, and Public Opinion Formation

Abstract: A central idea in marketing and diffusion research is that influentials—a minority of individuals who influence an exceptional number of their peers—are important to the formation of public opinion. Here we examine this idea, which we call the “influentials hypothesis,” using a series of computer simulations of interpersonal influence processes. Under most conditions that we consider, we find that large cascades of influence are driven not by influentials but by a critical mass of easily influenced individuals. Although our results do not exclude the possibility that influentials can be important, they suggest that the influentials hypothesis requires more careful specification and testing than it has received.

A twenty-first century science.

Abstract: If handled appropriately, data about Internet-based communication and interactivity could revolutionize our understanding of collective human behaviour.

Cooperation in Evolving Social Networks

Abstract: We study the problem of cooperative behavior emerging in an environment where individual behaviors and interaction structures coevolve. Players not only learn which strategy to adopt by imitating the strategy of the best-performing player they observe, but also choose with whom they should interact by selectively creating and/or severing ties with other players based on a myopic cost-benefit comparison. We find that scalable cooperation---that is, high levels of cooperation in large populations---can be achieved in sparse networks, assuming that individuals are able to sever ties unilaterally and that new ties can only be created with the mutual consent of both parties. Detailed examination shows that there is an important trade-off between local reinforcement and global expansion in achieving cooperation in dynamic networks. As a result, networks in which ties are costly and local structure is largely absent tend to generate higher levels of cooperation than those in which ties are made easily and friends of friends interact with high probability, where the latter result contrasts strongly with the usual intuition.

Viral marketing for the real world

Abstract: Page 1 of 2 http://harvardbusinessonline.hbsp.harvard.edu/hbsp/hbr/articles/article.jsp?articleID=F0705A&ml_action=get-article&print=true Duncan J. Watts (djw24@columbia.edu) is a professor of sociology at Columbia University, in New York, where he directs the Collective Dynamics Group. He is the author of Six Degrees: The Science of a Connected Age (Norton, 2003). Jonah Peretti (jonah@buzzfeed.com) is a founding partner of the Huffington Post, BuzzFeed, and ContagiousMedia.org.

Viral Marketing for the Real World Duncan J. Watts, Jonah Peretti, and Michael Frumin

Abstract: In spite of the recent popularity of viral marketing, we argue that most big companies should not rely on it to spread the word about their products and brands. Instead, we propose a new model called “Big Seed Marketing” that combines the power of traditional advertising with the extra punch provided by viral propagation. Between traditional advertising and viral marketing is an important gap that can be filled by big companies looking for an advantage in the market place and a better return on their advertising and marketing dollar.

Is Justin Timberlake a product of cumulative advantage

Abstract: As anyone who follows the business of culture is aware, the profits of cultural industries depend disproportionately on the occasional outsize success — a blockbuster movie, a best-selling book or a superstar artist — to offset the many investments that fail dismally. What may be less clear to casual observers is why professional editors, studio executives and talent managers, many of whom have a lifetime of experience in their businesses, are so bad at predicting which of their many potential projects will make it big. How could it be that industry executives rejected, passed over or even disparaged smash hits like “Star Wars,” “Harry Potter” and the Beatles, even as many of their most confident bets turned out to be flops? It may be true, in other words, that “nobody knows anything,” as the screenwriter William Goldman once said about Hollywood. But why? Of course, the experts may simply not be as smart as they would like us to believe. Recent research, however, suggests that reliable hit prediction is impossible no matter how much you know — a result that has implications not only for our understanding of best-seller lists but for business and politics as well.

Ideas innovadoras para 2007

Abstract: Duncan J. Watts sostiene que son las personas comunes y no los ?influenciadores? quienes conducen las epidemias sociales. Yoshito Hori predice que los jovenes emprendedores de Japon opacaran a los de China e India. Frederic Dalsace, Coralie Damay y David Dubois proponen marcas que ?al igual que Harry Potter? maduren con sus clientes. Michael Schrage revela el valor oculto de ecuaciones olvidadas hace mucho tiempo. Harry Hutson y Barbara Perry vuelven a colocar a la esperanza en el repertorio ejecutivo. Eric von Hippel destaca a Dinamarca, donde ?la innovacion centrada en el usuario? es una prioridad nacional. Linda Stone detecta un rechazo contra la adiccion a los celulares y BlackBerry. Michael C. Mankins sugiere donde colocar el exceso de efectivo. Ap Dijksterhuis reafirma el valor de consultar una decision con la almohada. Robert G. Eccles, Liv Watson y Mike Willis reportan sobre el nuevo estandar que hara que la informacion financiera sea sustancialmente mas facil de generar, agregar y analizar. Geoffrey B. West cuestiona que las funciones de innovacion mas pequenas sean las mas fecundas. Karen Fraser advierte sobre los consumidores leales que pueden irse por razones eticas. Philip Longman predice el regreso de grandes familias patriarcales y sus efectos en la estrategia de marketing. Rashi Glazer ilustra las implicaciones socioculturales y de negocios de la nanotecnologia. Yoko Ishikura urge a las empresas globales a ?pensar localmente?. Klaus Kleinfeld y Erich Reinhardt exploran la convergencia de la tecnologia de imagen y la biotecnologia y sus enormes beneficios para la atencion medica. Christopher Meyer sugiere enfocarse en que es lo que quiere de su red antes de construir la plataforma. Charles R. Morris sostiene que los costos de salud en EE.UU. estan bajando; es el gasto lo que esta subiendo. Clay Shirky muestra por que los proyectos de fuente abierta tienen exito gracias a sus fracasos. David Weinberger afirma que la responsabilizacion se ha transformado en un ?responsabilismo? supersticioso.