Background As mortality from coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is strongly age-dependent, we aimed to identify population subgroups at an elevated risk for adverse outcomes from COVID-19 using age-/gender-adjusted data from European cohort studies with the aim to identify populations that could potentially benefit from booster vaccinations. Methods We performed a systematic literature review and meta-analysis to investigate the role of underlying medical conditions as prognostic factors for adverse outcomes due to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), including death, hospitalisation, intensive care unit (ICU) admission and mechanical ventilation within three separate settings (community, hospital and ICU). Cohort studies that reported at least age and gender-adjusted data from Europe were identified through a search of peer-reviewed articles published until 11 June 2021 in Ovid Medline and Embase. Results are presented as odds ratios with 95% confidence intervals and absolute risk differences in deaths per 1000 COVID-19 patients. Findings We included 88 cohort studies with age-/gender-adjusted data from 6 653 207 SARS-CoV-2 patients from Europe. Hospital-based mortality was associated with high and moderate certainty evidence for solid organ tumours, diabetes mellitus, renal disease, arrhythmia, ischemic heart disease, liver disease and obesity, while a higher risk, albeit with low certainty, was noted for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and heart failure. Community-based mortality was associated with a history of heart failure, stroke, diabetes and end-stage renal disease. Evidence of high/moderate certainty revealed a strong association between hospitalisation for COVID-19 and solid organ transplant recipients, sleep apnoea, diabetes, stroke and liver disease. Interpretation The results confirmed the strong association between specific prognostic factors and mortality and hospital admission. Prioritisation of booster vaccinations and the implementation of nonpharmaceutical protective measures for these populations may contribute to a reduction in COVID-19 mortality, ICU and hospital admissions. There is a strong association between specific prognostic factors and mortality and hospital admission due to SARS-CoV-2, including, but not limited to, diabetes, cardiovascular diseases and respiratory diseases. https://bit.ly/3Qo4zCc

https://err.ersjournals.com/content/errev/31/166/220098.full.pdf

Prognostic factors for mortality, intensive care unit and hospital admission due to SARS-CoV-2: a systematic review and meta-analysis of cohort studies in Europe

Abstract Background Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is the most common liver disease associated with systemic changes in immune response, which might be associated with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) severity. The aim of this study was to investigate the impact of NAFLD on COVID-19 severity and outcomes. Methods A prospective observational study included consecutively hospitalized adult patients, hospitalized between March and June 2021, with severe COVID-19. Patients were screened for fatty liver by ultrasound and subsequently diagnosed with NAFLD. Patients were daily followed until discharge, and demographic, clinical, and laboratory data were collected and correlated to clinical outcomes. Results Of the 216 patients included, 120 (55.5%) had NAFLD. The NAFLD group had higher C-reactive protein (interquartile range [IQR]) (84.7 [38.6–129.8] mg/L vs 66.9 [32.2–97.3] mg/L; P = .0340), interleukin-6 (49.19 [22.66–92.04] ng/L vs 13.22 [5.29–39.75] ng/L; P < .0001), aspartate aminotransferase (58 [40–81] IU/L vs 46 [29–82] IU/L; P = .0123), alanine aminotransferase (51 [32–73] IU/L vs 40 [23–69] IU/L; P = .0345), and lactate dehydrogenase (391 [285–483] IU/L vs 324 [247–411] IU/L; P = .0027). The patients with NAFLD had higher disease severity assessed by 7-category ordinal scale, more frequently required high-flow nasal cannula or noninvasive ventilation (26, 21.66%, vs 10, 10.42%; P = .0289), had longer duration of hospitalization (IQR) (10 [8–15] days vs 9 [6–12] days; P = .0018), and more frequently had pulmonary thromboembolism (26.66% vs 13.54%; P = .0191). On multivariable analyses, NAFLD was negatively associated with time to recovery (hazard ratio, 0.64; 95% CI, 0.48 to 0.86) and was identified as a risk factor for pulmonary thrombosis (odds ratio, 2.15; 95% CI, 1.04 to 4.46). Conclusions NAFLD is associated with higher COVID-19 severity, more adverse outcomes, and more frequent pulmonary thrombosis.

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Association of Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease With COVID-19 Severity and Pulmonary Thrombosis: CovidFAT, a Prospective, Observational Cohort Study

The ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID‐19) pandemic calls for identification of risk factors, which may help to identify people at enhanced risk for severe disease outcomes to improve treatment and, if possible, establish prophylactic measures. This study aimed to determine whether individuals with obesity compared to individuals with normal weight have an increased risk for severe COVID‐19. We conducted a systematic literature search of PubMed, Embase and Cochrane Library and critically reviewed the secondary literature using AMSTAR‐2. We explored 27 studies. Findings indicate that individuals with obesity (body mass index ≥ 30 kg/m2), as compared to individuals without obesity, experience an increased risk for hospitalization (odds ratio [OR]: 1.40–2.45), admission to the intensive care unit (OR: 1.30–2.32), invasive mechanical ventilation (OR: 1.47–2.63), and the composite outcome ‘severe outcome’ (OR or risk ratio: 1.62–4.31). We found diverging results concerning death to COVID‐19, but data trended towards increased mortality. Comparing individuals with obesity to individuals without obesity, findings suggested younger individuals (<60 years) experience a higher risk of severe disease compared to older individuals (≥60 years). Obesity augments the severity of COVID‐19 including a tendency to increased mortality and, thus, contributes to an increased disease burden, especially among younger individuals.

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdfdirect/10.1111/cob.12508

Obesity augments the disease burden in COVID‐19: Updated data from an umbrella review

Background: Malnutrition predicts a worse outcome for critically ill patients. However, quick, easy-to-use nutritional risk assessment tools have not been adequately validated. Aims and Methods: The study aimed to evaluate the role of four biological nutritional risk assessment instruments (the Prognostic Nutritional Index—PNI, the Controlling Nutritional Status Score—CONUT, the Nutrition Risk in Critically Ill—NUTRIC, and the modified NUTRIC—mNUTRIC), along with CT-derived fat tissue and muscle mass measurements in predicting in-hospital mortality in a consecutive series of 90 patients hospitalized in the intensive care unit for COVID-19-associated ARDS. Results: In-hospital mortality was 46.7% (n = 42/90). Non-survivors had a significantly higher nutritional risk, as expressed by all four scores. All scores were independent predictors of mortality on the multivariate regression models. PNI had the best discriminative capabilities for mortality, with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.77 for a cut-off value of 28.05. All scores had an AUC above 0.72. The volume of fat tissue and muscle mass were not associated with increased mortality risk. Conclusions: PNI, CONUT, NUTRIC, and mNUTRIC are valuable nutritional risk assessment tools that can accurately predict mortality in critically ill patients with COVID-19-associated ARDS.

/pdf/nutritional-risk-assessment-scores-effectively-predict-2faj1bbe.pdf

Nutritional Risk Assessment Scores Effectively Predict Mortality in Critically Ill Patients with Severe COVID-19

Substance use disorders (SUD) elevate the risk for COVID-19 hospitalization, but studies are inconsistent on the relationship of SUD to COVID-19 mortality.Veterans Health Administration (VHA) patients treated in 2019 and evaluated in 2020 for COVID-19 (n=5,556,315), of whom 62,303 (1.1%) tested positive for COVID-19 (COVID-19+). Outcomes were COVID-19+ by 11/01/20, hospitalization, ICU admission, or death within 60 days of a positive test. Main predictors were any ICD-10-CM SUDs, with substance-specific SUDs (cannabis, cocaine, opioid, stimulant, sedative) explored individually. Logistic regression produced unadjusted and covariate-adjusted odds ratios (OR; aOR).Among COVID-19+ patients, 19.25% were hospitalized, 7.71% admitted to ICU, and 5.84% died. In unadjusted models, any SUD and all substance-specific SUDs except cannabis use disorder were associated with COVID-19+(ORs=1.06-1.85); adjusted models produced similar results. Any SUD and all substance-specific SUDs were associated with hospitalization (aORs: 1.24-1.91). Any SUD, cocaine and opioid disorder were associated with ICU admission in unadjusted but not adjusted models. Any SUD, cannabis, cocaine, and stimulant disorders were inversely associated with mortality in unadjusted models (OR=0.27-0.46). After adjustment, associations with mortality were no longer significant. In ad hoc analyses, adjusted odds of mortality were lower among the 49.9% of COVID-19+ patients with SUD who had SUD treatment in 2019, but not among those without such treatment.In VHA patients, SUDs are associated with COVID-19 hospitalization but not COVID-19 mortality. SUD treatment may provide closer monitoring of care, ensuring that these patients received needed medical attention, enabling them to ultimately survive serious illness. 

http://manuscript.elsevier.com/S037687162200120X/pdf/S037687162200120X.pdf

Substance use disorders and COVID-19: An analysis of nation-wide Veterans Health Administration electronic health records

Identification of high-risk patients admitted to intensive care with COVID-19 may inform management strategies. The objective of this meta-analysis was to determine factors associated with mortality among adults with COVID-19 admitted to intensive care by searching databases for studies published between 1 January 2020 and 6 December 2020. Observational studies of COVID-19 adults admitted to critical care were included. Studies of mixed cohorts and intensive care cohorts restricted to a specific patient sub-group were excluded. Dichotomous variables were reported with pooled OR and 95%CI, and continuous variables with pooled standardised mean difference (SMD) and 95%CI. Fifty-eight studies (44,305 patients) were included in the review. Increasing age (SMD 0.65, 95%CI 0.53-0.77); smoking (OR 1.40, 95%CI 1.03-1.90); hypertension (OR 1.54, 95%CI 1.29-1.85); diabetes (OR 1.41, 95%CI 1.22-1.63); cardiovascular disease (OR 1.91, 95%CI 1.52-2.38); respiratory disease (OR 1.75, 95%CI 1.33-2.31); renal disease (OR 2.39, 95%CI 1.68-3.40); and malignancy (OR 1.81, 95%CI 1.30-2.52) were associated with mortality. A higher sequential organ failure assessment score (SMD 0.86, 95%CI 0.63-1.10) and acute physiology and chronic health evaluation-2 score (SMD 0.89, 95%CI 0.65-1.13); a lower PaO2 :FI O2 (SMD -0.44, 95%CI -0.62 to -0.26) and the need for mechanical ventilation at admission (OR 2.53, 95%CI 1.90-3.37) were associated with mortality. Higher white cell counts (SMD 0.37, 95%CI 0.22-0.51); neutrophils (SMD 0.42, 95%CI 0.19-0.64); D-dimers (SMD 0.56, 95%CI 0.43-0.69); ferritin (SMD 0.32, 95%CI 0.19-0.45); lower platelet (SMD -0.22, 95%CI -0.35 to -0.10); and lymphocyte counts (SMD -0.37, 95%CI -0.54 to -0.19) were all associated with mortality. In conclusion, increasing age, pre-existing comorbidities, severity of illness based on validated scoring systems, and the host response to the disease were associated with mortality; while male sex and increasing BMI were not. These factors have prognostic relevance for patients admitted to intensive care with COVID-19.

E. J. Marson

Papers

Factors associated with mortality in patients with COVID-19 admitted to intensive care: a systematic review and meta-analysis.