Elisabeth Koch

Bio: Elisabeth Koch is an academic researcher from Central Institution for Meteorology and Geodynamics. The author has contributed to research in topics: Climate change & Climate model. The author has an hindex of 14, co-authored 23 publications receiving 2827 citations.

European phenological response to climate change matches the warming pattern

Abstract: Global climate change impacts can already be tracked in many physical and biological systems; in particular, terrestrial ecosystems provide a consistent picture of observed changes. One of the preferred indicators is phenology, the science of natural recurring events, as their recorded dates provide a high-temporal resolution of ongoing changes. Thus, numerous analyses have demonstrated an earlier onset of spring events for mid and higher latitudes and a lengthening of the growing season. However, published single-site or single-species studies are particularly open to suspicion of being biased towards predominantly reporting climate change-induced impacts. No comprehensive study or meta-analysis has so far examined the possible lack of evidence for changes or shifts at sites where no temperature change is observed. We used an enormous systematic phenological network data set of more than 125 000 observational series of 542 plant and 19 animal species in 21 European countries (1971–2000). Our results showed that 78% of all leafing, flowering and fruiting records advanced (30% significantly) and only 3% were significantly delayed, whereas the signal of leaf colouring/fall is ambiguous. We conclude that previously published results of phenological changes were not biased by reporting or publication predisposition: the average advance of spring/summer was 2.5 days decade � 1 in Europe. Our analysis of 254 mean national time series undoubtedly demonstrates that species’ phenology is responsive to temperature of the preceding

Pan European Phenological database (PEP725): a single point of access for European data

Abstract: The Pan European Phenology (PEP) project is a European infrastructure to promote and facilitate phenological research, education, and environmental monitoring. The main objective is to maintain and develop a Pan European Phenological database (PEP725) with an open, unrestricted data access for science and education. PEP725 is the successor of the database developed through the COST action 725 “Establishing a European phenological data platform for climatological applications” working as a single access point for European-wide plant phenological data. So far, 32 European meteorological services and project partners from across Europe have joined and supplied data collected by volunteers from 1868 to the present for the PEP725 database. Most of the partners actively provide data on a regular basis. The database presently holds almost 12 million records, about 46 growing stages and 265 plant species (including cultivars), and can be accessed via http://www.pep725.eu/ . Users of the PEP725 database have studied a diversity of topics ranging from climate change impact, plant physiological question, phenological modeling, and remote sensing of vegetation to ecosystem productivity.

Atmospheric mechanisms governing the spatial and temporal variability of phenological phases in central Europe

Abstract: A data set of 17 phenological phases from Germany, Austria, Switzerland and Slovenia spanning the time period from 1951 to 1998 has been made available for analysis together with a gridded temperature data set (1° × 1° grid) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index time series. The disturbances of the westerlies constitute the main atmospheric source for the temporal variability of phenological events in Europe. The trend, the standard deviation and the discontinuity of the phenological time series at the end of the 1980s can, to a great extent, be explained by the NAO. A number of factors modulate the influence of the NAO in time and space. The seasonal northward shift of the westerlies overlaps with the sequence of phenological spring phases, thereby gradually reducing its influence on the temporal variability of phenological events with progression of spring (temporal loss of influence). This temporal process is reflected by a pronounced decrease in trend and standard deviation values and common variability with the NAO with increasing year-day. The reduced influence of the NAO with increasing distance from the Atlantic coast is not only apparent in studies based on the data set of the International Phenological Gardens, but also in the data set of this study with a smaller spatial extent (large-scale loss of influence). The common variance between phenological and NAO time series displays a discontinuous drop from the European Atlantic coast towards the Alps. On a local and regional scale, mountainous terrain reduces the influence of the large-scale atmospheric flow from the Atlantic via a proposed ‘decoupling mechanism’. Valleys in mountainous terrain have the inclination to harbour temperature inversions over extended periods of time during the cold season, which isolate the valley climate from the large-scale atmospheric flow at higher altitudes. Most phenological stations reside at valley bottoms and are thus largely decoupled in their temporal variability from the influence of the westerly flow regime (local-scale loss of influence). This study corroborates an increasing number of similar investigations that find that vegetation does react in a sensitive way to variations of its atmospheric environment across various temporal and spatial scales. Copyright © 2002 Royal Meteorological Society.

Influence of altitude on phenology of selected plant species in the Alpine region (1971-2000)

Abstract: We present a quantitative and qualitative analysis of the influence of altitude on plant phenology over an area, delimited by 46 to 49°N latitude and 5 to 15°E longitude, that includes major parts of the Alpine region for the period 1971-2000. Our attention is focused on flowering of widely distributed plants in Europe, including some important allergenic species. We calculated the dependence of phenological mean dates on altitude for different phenophases as a linear regres- sion. Results show a statistically significant linear dependence (p < 0.0001) for each phenophase, with regression coefficients that range from 0.92 ± 0.21 d (100 m) -1 altitude for beginning of flower- ing of Norway spruce to 4.56 ± 0.21 d (100 m) -1 for beginning of flowering of common hazel. Pheno- logical temporal trends and thermal temporal trends show a less strong dependence on altitude, predominantly non-significant. The most significant regression coefficients are negative for pheno- logical trends (beginning of flowering of common alder, -0.065 ± 0.028 d yr -1 (100 m) -1 , p = 0.0187, and Norway spruce, -0.049 ± 0.020 d yr -1 (100 m) -1 , p = 0.0167) and positive for temperature trends (February, 0.0017°C yr -1 (100 m) -1 , p < 0.0001). The significant linear dependence of February tem- perature trends on altitude induces an inverse significant linear dependence for phenological trends of flowering of common alder (occurring in March). The prevalence of negative mean pheno- logical trends suggests a stronger advance of flowering phases at higher altitude. Finally, a regional analysis suggests a tendency towards a stronger altitudinal response in the northern than in the southern Alps.

Human biometeorological evaluation of heat-related mortality in Vienna

Abstract: The relationship between heat stress and mortality in the federal state of Vienna (Austria) was analyzed from 1970 to 2007. Long-term trends of mortality data and short-term adaptation to heat stress were considered by two complex approaches. The evaluation is based on the human biometeorological parameter, physiologically equivalent temperature. The results revealed a significant impact of heat stress on the human health, with a significantly higher sensitivity on women compared to men. Additionally, higher risks of deaths due to cardiovascular and respiratory diseases were found. During the long period of 38 years, some significant decreases of the sensitivity were found, especially in the medium heat stress levels. This could indicate active processes of long-term adaptation to the increasing heat stress.

Rapid Range Shifts of Species Associated with High Levels of Climate Warming

Abstract: The distributions of many terrestrial organisms are currently shifting in latitude or elevation in response to changing climate Using a meta-analysis, we estimated that the distributions of species have recently shifted to higher elevations at a median rate of 110 meters per decade, and to higher latitudes at a median rate of 169 kilometers per decade These rates are approximately two and three times faster than previously reported The distances moved by species are greatest in studies showing the highest levels of warming, with average latitudinal shifts being generally sufficient to track temperature changes However, individual species vary greatly in their rates of change, suggesting that the range shift of each species depends on multiple internal species traits and external drivers of change Rapid average shifts derive from a wide diversity of responses by individual species

Shifting plant phenology in response to global change

Abstract: Plants are finely tuned to the seasonality of their environment, and shifts in the timing of plant activity (i.e. phenology) provide some of the most compelling evidence that species and ecosystems are being influenced by global environmental change. Researchers across disciplines have observed shifting phenology at multiple scales, including earlier spring flowering in individual plants and an earlier spring green-up' of the land surface revealed in satellite images. Experimental and modeling approaches have sought to identify the mechanisms causing these shifts, as well as to make predictions regarding the consequences. Here, we discuss recent advances in several fields that have enabled scaling between species responses to recent climatic changes and shifts in ecosystem productivity, with implications for global carbon cycling.

Attributing physical and biological impacts to anthropogenic climate change

Abstract: Significant changes in physical and biological systems are occurring on all continents and in most oceans, with a concentration of available data in Europe and North America. Most of these changes are in the direction expected with warming temperature. Here we show that these changes in natural systems since at least 1970 are occurring in regions of observed temperature increases, and that these temperature increases at continental scales cannot be explained by natural climate variations alone. Given the conclusions from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report that most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-twentieth century is very likely to be due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations, and furthermore that it is likely that there has been significant anthropogenic warming over the past 50 years averaged over each continent except Antarctica, we conclude that anthropogenic climate change is having a significant impact on physical and biological systems globally and in some continents.