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Modern Applied Statistics With S

Worldwide decline of the entomofauna: A review of its drivers

Insect declines are being reported worldwide for flying, ground, and aquatic lineages. Most reports come from western and northern Europe, where the insect fauna is well-studied and there are consi...

Insect Declines in the Anthropocene

For many species, geographical ranges are expanding toward the poles in response to climate change, while remaining stable along range edges nearest the equator. Using long-term observations across Europe and North America over 110 years, we tested for climate change–related range shifts in bumblebee species across the full extents of their latitudinal and thermal limits and movements along elevation gradients. We found cross-continentally consistent trends in failures to track warming through time at species’ northern range limits, range losses from southern range limits, and shifts to higher elevations among southern species. These effects are independent of changing land uses or pesticide applications and underscore the need to test for climate impacts at both leading and trailing latitudinal and thermal limits for species.

/pdf/climate-change-impacts-on-bumblebees-converge-across-4kyqkgg8x7.pdf

Climate change impacts on bumblebees converge across continents

A number of studies indicate that tropical arthropods should be particularly vulnerable to climate warming. If these predictions are realized, climate warming may have a more profound impact on the functioning and diversity of tropical forests than currently anticipated. Although arthropods comprise over two-thirds of terrestrial species, information on their abundance and extinction rates in tropical habitats is severely limited. Here we analyze data on arthropod and insectivore abundances taken between 1976 and 2012 at two midelevation habitats in Puerto Rico’s Luquillo rainforest. During this time, mean maximum temperatures have risen by 2.0 °C. Using the same study area and methods employed by Lister in the 1970s, we discovered that the dry weight biomass of arthropods captured in sweep samples had declined 4 to 8 times, and 30 to 60 times in sticky traps. Analysis of long-term data on canopy arthropods and walking sticks taken as part of the Luquillo Long-Term Ecological Research program revealed sustained declines in abundance over two decades, as well as negative regressions of abundance on mean maximum temperatures. We also document parallel decreases in Luquillo’s insectivorous lizards, frogs, and birds. While El Nino/Southern Oscillation influences the abundance of forest arthropods, climate warming is the major driver of reductions in arthropod abundance, indirectly precipitating a bottom-up trophic cascade and consequent collapse of the forest food web.

https://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/115/44/E10397.full.pdf

Climate-driven declines in arthropod abundance restructure a rainforest food web.

Bees are subject to numerous pressures in the modern world. The abundance and diversity of flowers has declined, bees are chronically exposed to cocktails of agrochemicals, and they are simultaneously exposed to novel parasites accidentally spread by humans. Climate change is likely to exacerbate these problems in the future. Stressors do not act in isolation; for example pesticide exposure can impair both detoxification mechanisms and immune responses, rendering bees more susceptible to parasites. It seems certain that chronic exposure to multiple, interacting stressors is driving honey bee colony losses and declines of wild pollinators, but such interactions are not addressed by current regulatory procedures and studying these interactions experimentally poses a major challenge. In the meantime, taking steps to reduce stress on bees would seem prudent; incorporating flower-rich habitat into farmland, reducing pesticide use through adopting more sustainable farming methods, and enforcing effective quarantine measures on bee movements are all practical measures that should be adopted. Effective monitoring of wild pollinator populations is urgently needed to inform management strategies into the future.

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/sci/early/2015/02/25/science.1255957.full.pdf

Bee declines driven by combined stress from parasites, pesticides, and lack of flowers

Widespread contamination of wildflower and bee-collected pollen with complex mixtures of neonicotinoids and fungicides commonly applied to crops

1. Pollinator declines caused by forage habitat loss threaten insect pollination services. Pollinating insects depend on adequate floral resources, and their ability to track these resources. Variability of these resources and the effect on insect foraging choice is poorly understood.
2. We record patterns of visitation to six wildflower species and test the hypotheses that: pollinators preferentially visit the most rewarding flowers; nectar diurnal variations affect foraging preferences; pollinators respond most strongly to nectar rewards.
3. Nectar volume and sugar concentration were negatively correlated within plant species over time of day where greater concentration and lower volume was evident in the afternoon, but this did not correspond to pollinator visitation.
Both floral abundance and nectar quality (total sugar per inflorescence) positively affect insect visitation. For some foragers, the positive effects of high quality rewards were only evident when floral abundance was high (>50 inflorescences per patch), perhaps reflecting the low probability of pollinators detecting scarce rewards. Pollen quality (total protein per inflorescence) was negatively related to visitation of Apis mellifera and Bombus pascuorum.
4. Fewer pollinators visiting flowers of higher pollen quality could reflect plant allocation trade-offs or the presence of secondary metabolites in pollen, meaning pollen foraging is likely affected by factors other than protein concentration. Nectar rather than pollen appeared to be the main driver of floral choice by insects in this system.
5. Conservation schemes for bees in farmland or gardens might benefit from ensuring that rewarding plant species are present at high density and/or are aggregated in space.

/pdf/floral-abundance-and-resource-quality-influence-pollinator-g93d8m2ap4.pdf

Floral abundance and resource quality influence pollinator choice

1. Worldwide declines in pollinators, including bumblebees, are attributed to a multitude of stressors such as habitat loss, resource availability, emerging viruses and parasites, exposure to pesticides, and climate change, operating at various spatial and temporal scales. Disentangling individual and interacting effects of these stressors, and understanding their impact at the individual, colony and population level is a challenge for systems ecology. Empirical testing of all combinations and contexts is not feasible. A mechanistic multi-level systems model (individual-colony-population-community) is required to explore resilience mechanisms of populations and communities under stress.

2. We present a model which can simulate the growth, behaviour and survival of six UK bumblebee species living in any mapped landscape. Bumble-BEEHAVE simulates, in an agent-based approach, the colony development of bumblebees in a realistic landscape to study how multiple stressors affect bee numbers and population dynamics. We provide extensive documentation, including sensitivity analysis and validation, based on data from literature. The model is freely available, has flexible settings and includes a user manual to ensure it can be used by researchers, farmers, policy-makers, NGO's or other interested parties. 

3. Model outcomes compare well with empirical data for individual foraging behaviour, colony growth and reproduction, and estimated nest densities. 

4. Simulating the impact of reproductive depression caused by pesticide exposure shows that the complex feedback mechanisms captured in this model predict higher colony resilience to stress than suggested by a previous, simpler model.

5. Synthesis and applications. The Bumble-BEEHAVE model represents a significant step towards predicting bumblebee population dynamics in a spatially explicit way. It enables researchers to understand the individual and interacting effects of the multiple stressors affecting bumblebee survival and the feedback mechanisms that may buffer a colony against environmental stress, or indeed lead to spiralling colony collapse. The model can be used to aid the design of field experiments, for risk assessments, to inform conservation and farming decisions and for assigning bespoke management recommendations at a landscape scale.

https://besjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/1365-2664.13165

Bumble-BEEHAVE: A systems model for exploring multifactorial causes of bumblebee decline at individual, colony, population and community level

Agricultural intensification has led to a reduction in semi-natural areas and in the abundance of wild flowering plants, reducing the availability of floral resources upon which pollinating insects depend. This is widely accepted as one of the major drivers of pollinator declines, but few studies have directly addressed the effects of dietary restrictions on pollinator fitness. Here, we investigated the effects of restricting pollen and nectar supply on bumble bee (Bombus terrestris) colony growth, adult size and number. Colonies required up to 6 g pollen/1 g protein and 50 g sugar to establish a colony of 5 workers, and consumed in excess of 176 g pollen/31 g protein and 1,186 g sugar in their lifetime. Regardless of restrictions on pollen or nectar availability, colonies consumed a ratio of 1 g protein to ~43 g sugar, though free-flying colonies require proportionally more sugar to fuel foraging. Food-limited colonies from an early stage grew little with anything less than ad-lib nectar, while more-esta...

Ellen L. Rotheray

Papers

Bee declines driven by combined stress from parasites, pesticides, and lack of flowers

Widespread contamination of wildflower and bee-collected pollen with complex mixtures of neonicotinoids and fungicides commonly applied to crops

Floral abundance and resource quality influence pollinator choice

Bumble-BEEHAVE: A systems model for exploring multifactorial causes of bumblebee decline at individual, colony, population and community level

Quantifying the food requirements and effects of food stress on bumble bee colony development