Eloísa Ortega

Bio: Eloísa Ortega is an academic researcher from Bank of Spain. The author has contributed to research in topics: Real estate & Debt. The author has an hindex of 3, co-authored 5 publications receiving 115 citations.

The Spanish Economic Crisis: Key Factors and Growth Challenges in the Euro Area

Abstract: The economic crisis affecting the industrialized countries in recent years has been singular given its intensity, complexity and the difficulties in overcoming it. The aim of this paper is to analyze the determinants behind the crisis that have made it deeper and longer in Spain than in previous instances, and which have meant that there are significant obstacles to emerging from recession. Spanish EMU membership is a crucial aspect for consideration, as it contributes both to explaining the build-up of imbalances in the expansion and to conditioning the nature of the adjustment in the crisis, given that the range of economic policy instruments is significantly narrower in EMU. The macroeconomic and financial imbalances accumulated in the high-growth phase (the real estate boom, excess debt and the loss in competitiveness), which are all closely interlinked, were factors of vulnerability. But even apparently sounder fundamentals on other fronts, such as the budgetary and labor market situation, saw their weaknesses exposed in the crisis. The experience over the past four years allows some lessons to be drawn on the external sector, the real estate market, fiscal policy and the labor market. These lessons point in particular to the need to avoid complacency in economic policy management in boom periods and to the urgency of adapting the structure of goods and factor markets and the behavior of economic agents in Spain to the requirements imposed by membership of a monetary union.

Some Thoughts on the Spanish Economy after Five Years of Crisis

Abstract: This paper briefly describes some features of the situation of the Spanish economy after five years of crisis, a task which is easier now that this period can be analyzed from a certain perspective. The crisis prompted a substantial readjustment of the main Spanish macroeconomic aggregates, affecting the level and composition of GDP, employment and the balance sheet position of the institutional sectors. During this period some of the imbalances that built up during the upturn have been corrected and several key variables are currently at around the average European levels. All told, the legacy of the crisis, in terms of the magnitude of unemployment and of the still high levels of indebtedness, makes for a complex outlook and suggests that the recovery will be gradual and not free of uncertainty. This uncertainty mainly affects the functioning of the economy’s adjustment mechanisms, particularly those working through the channels of competitiveness and of private sector balance sheets. Despite the depth of the crisis in Spain, the progress made in the reforms on various fronts is, on balance, significant. From the perspective provided by the analysis of the crisis in this paper, supply-side policies will have to play a major role in the current phase of the cycle to enable the recovery to proceed firmly.

The Spanish economic crisis: key factors and growth challenges in the euro area

Abstract: The economic crisis affecting the industrialised countries in recent years has been singular given its intensity, complexity and the difficulties in overcoming it. The aim of this paper is to analyse the determinants behind the crisis that have made it deeper and longer in Spain than in previous instances, and which have meant that there are significant obstacles to emerging from recession. Spanish EMU membership is a crucial aspect for consideration, as it contributes both to explaining the build-up of imbalances in the expansion and to conditioning the nature of the adjustment in the crisis, given that the range of economic policy instruments is significantly narrower in EMU. The macroeconomic and financial imbalances accumulated in the high-growth phase (the real estate boom, excess debt and the loss in competitiveness), which are all closely interlinked, were factors of vulnerability. But even apparently sounder fundamentals on other fronts, such as the budgetary and labour market situation, saw their weaknesses exposed in the crisis. The experience over the past four years allows some lessons to be drawn on the external sector, the real estate market, fiscal policy and the labour market. These lessons point in particular to the need to avoid complacency in economic policy management in boom periods and to the urgency of adapting the structure of goods and factor markets and the behaviour of economic agents in Spain to the requirements imposed by membership of a monetary union

Some Thoughts On The Spanish Economy After Five Years Of Crisis

Abstract: This paper briefl y describes some features of the situation of the Spanish economy after five years of crisis, a task which is easier now that this period can be analysed from a certain perspective. The crisis prompted a substantial readjustment of the main Spanish macroeconomic aggregates, affecting the level and composition of GDP, employment and the balance sheet position of the institutional sectors. During this period some of the imbalances that built up during the upturn have been corrected and several key variables are currently at around the average European levels. All told, the legacy of the crisis, in terms of the magnitude of unemployment and of the still high levels of indebtedness, makes for a complex outlook and suggests that the recovery will be gradual and not free of uncertainty. This uncertainty mainly affects the functioning of the economy’s adjustment mechanisms, particularly those working through the channels of competitiveness and of private sector balance sheets. Despite the depth of the crisis in Spain, the progress made in the reforms on various fronts is, on balance, significant. From the perspective provided by the analysis of the crisis in this paper, supply-side policies will have to play a major role in the current phase of the cycle to enable the recovery to proceed firmly.

Annual Report 2008

Abstract: The following section, Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Operations, provides an overview of the consolidated financial statements of Fujitsu Limited (the “Company”) and its consolidated subsidiaries (together, the “Group”) for the year ended March 31, 2008 (fiscal 2007). Forward-looking statements in this section are based on management’s understanding and best judgment as of March 31, 2008.

Tracking the future on the web: construction of leading indicators using internet searches

Abstract: This paper reviews some of the applications that use the vast swathes of information provided by Internet user searches for economic analysis and forecasting. This enormous volume of information, available in real time, can be handled by analysts thanks to statistical tools such as “Google Insights for Search”, which allow trends in different areas of interest to be classified and evaluated. Previous work focused predominantly on the labour market, on the housing market, on retail sales and on consumer confidence. This paper presents a very specific application for the Spanish economy: British tourist inflows to Spain (the Spanish tourist industry's main customers). The improvement in the forecasting provided by the short-term models that include the G-indicator depends on the benchmark model. This does, however, allow an adjusted indicator of the inflow of British tourists to be obtained with a lead of almost one month. This is but an initial step in the use of on-line searches for constructing leading indicators of economic activity. Other applications to be explored are car sales, consumer confidence and house purchases. The chief characteristic of these procedures is that, with time and the continuous growth of Internet use, results can only improve in the future. It should nonetheless be recalled that the construction of these G-indicators requires caution so as to avoid mistakes arising, inter alia, from the different use of language in different countries. Not taking due caution and blindly confiding in these indicators may lead to erroneous results being obtained.

Employment, Wage and Price Reactions to the Crisis in Spain: Firm-Level Evidence from the WDN Survey

Abstract: This paper describes the main results from the third wave of the Wage Dynamics Network (WDN) survey. Its main goal is to provide information on demand, finance conditions and other factors determining economic activity, on wage, price and employment adjustments over the period 2010-2013, and on firms’ perceptions of institutional changes in the labour market. In Spain, the survey was conducted at the end of 2014, collecting information from a representative sample of 1,975 Spanish firms covering manufacturing, energy and market services sectors. The main results show that Spanish firms’ adjustment to falling demand and other negative conditions since 2010 relied heavily on the dismissal of employees under temporary contracts, although those firms most affected by the crisis also significantly reduced permanent employment. On the contrary, wage and hours adjustments remained limited even in those firms most severely affected by the negative shocks. Regarding institutional changes, Spanish firms perceive some easing in the conditions for economic layoffs, attributing the main source of this higher flexibility to legal changes since 2010. As to other labour conditions, including wages and hours, the share of firms perceiving higher flexibility is somewhat lower.