Ely Salwana

Bio: Ely Salwana is an academic researcher from National University of Malaysia. The author has contributed to research in topics: Routing protocol & The Internet. The author has an hindex of 8, co-authored 26 publications receiving 347 citations. Previous affiliations of Ely Salwana include Information Technology University.

Deep Learning for Stock Market Prediction

Abstract: The prediction of stock groups values has always been attractive and challenging for shareholders due to its inherent dynamics, non-linearity, and complex nature. This paper concentrates on the future prediction of stock market groups. Four groups named diversified financials, petroleum, non-metallic minerals, and basic metals from Tehran stock exchange were chosen for experimental evaluations. Data were collected for the groups based on 10 years of historical records. The value predictions are created for 1, 2, 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 days in advance. Various machine learning algorithms were utilized for prediction of future values of stock market groups. We employed decision tree, bagging, random forest, adaptive boosting (Adaboost), gradient boosting, and eXtreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), and artificial neural networks (ANN), recurrent neural network (RNN) and long short-term memory (LSTM). Ten technical indicators were selected as the inputs into each of the prediction models. Finally, the results of the predictions were presented for each technique based on four metrics. Among all algorithms used in this paper, LSTM shows more accurate results with the highest model fitting ability. In addition, for tree-based models, there is often an intense competition between Adaboost, Gradient Boosting, and XGBoost.

Prediction of multi-inputs bubble column reactor using a novel hybrid model of computational fluid dynamics and machine learning

Abstract: The combination of machine learning and numerical methods has recently become popular in the prediction of macroscopic and microscopic hydrodynamics parameters of bubble column reactors. Such numerical combination can develop a smart multiphase bubble column reactor with the ability of low-cost computational time when considering the big data. However, the accuracy of such models should be improved by optimizing the data parameters. This paper uses an adaptive-network-based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) to train four big data inputs with a novel integration of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model of gas. The results show that the increasing number of input variables improves the intelligence of the ANFIS method up to R=0.99, and the number of rules during the learning process has a significant effect on the accuracy of this type of modeling. Furthermore, the proper selection of model’s parameters results in higher accuracy in the prediction of the flow characteristics in the column structure.

Comprehensive review of deep reinforcement learning methods and applications in economics

Abstract: The popularity of deep reinforcement learning (DRL) applications in economics has increased exponentially. DRL, through a wide range of capabilities from reinforcement learning (RL) to deep learning (DL), offers vast opportunities for handling sophisticated dynamic economics systems. DRL is characterized by scalability with the potential to be applied to high-dimensional problems in conjunction with noisy and nonlinear patterns of economic data. In this paper, we initially consider a brief review of DL, RL, and deep RL methods in diverse applications in economics, providing an in-depth insight into the state-of-the-art. Furthermore, the architecture of DRL applied to economic applications is investigated in order to highlight the complexity, robustness, accuracy, performance, computational tasks, risk constraints, and profitability. The survey results indicate that DRL can provide better performance and higher efficiency as compared to the traditional algorithms while facing real economic problems in the presence of risk parameters and the ever-increasing uncertainties.

Support Vector Regression Integrated with Fruit Fly Optimization Algorithm for River Flow Forecasting in Lake Urmia Basin

Abstract: Advancement in river flow prediction systems can greatly empower the operational river management to make better decisions, practices, and policies. Machine learning methods recently have shown promising results in building accurate models for river flow prediction. This paper aims to identify models with higher accuracy, robustness, and generalization ability by inspecting the accuracy of a number of machine learning models. The proposed models for river flow include support vector regression (SVR), a hybrid of SVR with a fruit fly optimization algorithm (FOA) (so-called FOASVR), and an M5 model tree (M5). Additionally, the influence of periodicity (π) on the forecasting enactment was examined. To assess the performance of the proposed models, different statistical meters were implemented, including root mean squared error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), correlation coefficient (R), and Bayesian information criterion (BIC). Results showed that the FOASVR with RMSE (4.36 and 6.33 m3/s), MAE (2.40 and 3.71 m3/s) and R (0.82 and 0.81) values had the best performance in forecasting river flows at Babarud and Vaniar stations, respectively. Also, regarding BIC parameters, Qt−1 and π were selected as parsimonious inputs for predicting river flow one month ahead. Overall findings indicated that, although both the FOASVR and M5 predicted the river flows in suitable accordance with observed river flows, the performance of the FOASVR was moderately better than the M5 and periodicity noticeably increased the performance of the models; consequently, FOASVR can be suggested as the most accurate method for forecasting river flows.

Application of ANFIS and LSSVM strategies for estimating thermal conductivity enhancement of metal and metal oxide based nanofluids

Abstract: An extensive variety of chemical engineering processes include the transfer of heat energy. Since increasing the effective contact surface is known as one of the popular manners to improve the effi...

Digital Twin: Values, Challenges and Enablers From a Modeling Perspective

Abstract: Digital twin can be defined as a virtual representation of a physical asset enabled through data and simulators for real-time prediction, optimization, monitoring, controlling, and improved decision making. Recent advances in computational pipelines, multiphysics solvers, artificial intelligence, big data cybernetics, data processing and management tools bring the promise of digital twins and their impact on society closer to reality. Digital twinning is now an important and emerging trend in many applications. Also referred to as a computational megamodel, device shadow, mirrored system, avatar or a synchronized virtual prototype, there can be no doubt that a digital twin plays a transformative role not only in how we design and operate cyber-physical intelligent systems, but also in how we advance the modularity of multi-disciplinary systems to tackle fundamental barriers not addressed by the current, evolutionary modeling practices. In this work, we review the recent status of methodologies and techniques related to the construction of digital twins mostly from a modeling perspective. Our aim is to provide a detailed coverage of the current challenges and enabling technologies along with recommendations and reflections for various stakeholders.

Predicting Standardized Streamflow index for hydrological drought using machine learning models

Abstract: Hydrological droughts are characterized based on their duration, severity, and magnitude. Among the most critical factors, precipitation, evapotranspiration, and runoff are essential in modeling t...

Deep Learning for Detecting Building Defects Using Convolutional Neural Networks

Abstract: Clients are increasingly looking for fast and effective means to quickly and frequently survey and communicate the condition of their buildings so that essential repairs and maintenance work can be done in a proactive and timely manner before it becomes too dangerous and expensive. Traditional methods for this type of work commonly comprise of engaging building surveyors to undertake a condition assessment which involves a lengthy site inspection to produce a systematic recording of the physical condition of the building elements, including cost estimates of immediate and projected long-term costs of renewal, repair and maintenance of the building. Current asset condition assessment procedures are extensively time consuming, laborious, and expensive and pose health and safety threats to surveyors, particularly at height and roof levels which are difficult to access. This paper aims at evaluating the application of convolutional neural networks (CNN) towards an automated detection and localisation of key building defects, e.g., mould, deterioration, and stain, from images. The proposed model is based on pre-trained CNN classifier of VGG-16 (later compaired with ResNet-50, and Inception models), with class activation mapping (CAM) for object localisation. The challenges and limitations of the model in real-life applications have been identified. The proposed model has proven to be robust and able to accurately detect and localise building defects. The approach is being developed with the potential to scale-up and further advance to support automated detection of defects and deterioration of buildings in real-time using mobile devices and drones.