Sea-level rise (SLR) is predicted to elevate water depths above coral reefs and to increase coastal wave exposure as ecological degradation limits vertical reef growth, but projections lack data on interactions between local rates of reef growth and sea level rise. Here we calculate the vertical growth potential of more than 200 tropical western Atlantic and Indian Ocean reefs, and compare these against recent and projected rates of SLR under different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. Although many reefs retain accretion rates close to recent SLR trends, few will have the capacity to track SLR projections under RCP4.5 scenarios without sustained ecological recovery, and under RCP8.5 scenarios most reefs are predicted to experience mean water depth increases of more than 0.5 m by 2100. Coral cover strongly predicts reef capacity to track SLR, but threshold cover levels that will be necessary to prevent submergence are well above those observed on most reefs. Urgent action is thus needed to mitigate climate, sea-level and future ecological changes in order to limit the magnitude of future reef submergence.

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Loss of coral reef growth capacity to track future increases in sea level

Since late 2014, the Mexican Caribbean coast has periodically received massive, atypical influxes of pelagic Sargassum spp. (sargasso). Negative impacts associated with these influxes include mortality of nearshore benthic flora and fauna, beach erosion, pollution, decreasing tourism and high management costs. To understand the dynamics of the sargasso influx, we used Landsat 8 imagery (from 2016 to mid-2020) to record the coverage of sargasso in the sea off the Mexican Caribbean coastline, with a maximum reported in September 2018. Satellite image analysis also showed local differences in the quantity of beached sargasso along the coastline. Over the years, good practice for collection on the beach and for off-shore collection of sargasso have been established through trial and error, and the Mexican Government and hotel industry have spent millions of dollars on removal and off-shore detention of sargasso. Notwithstanding, sargasso also has various properties that could be harnessed in local industries. The stimulation of local industrial growth would offer alternatives to the dependence on tourism, as a circular economy, based on sargasso, is developed.

Massive Influx of Pelagic Sargassum spp. on the Coasts of the Mexican Caribbean 2014–2020: Challenges and Opportunities

Impacts of nitrogen pollution on corals in the context of global climate change and potential strategies to conserve coral reefs

Anthropogenic and natural disturbances have modified coral reef ecosystems over the last decades, ultimately, exerting negative impacts on the persistence of the carbonated matrix and the physical function. In 2014, the Caribbean region saw the onset of a new deadly coral disease, often known as the stony coral tissue loss disease. In summer of 2018, the outbreak was first reported in the Mexican Caribbean in a diving site named ‘Fish Market’. From July 2018 to March 2019, surveys were made to assess the impacts of this new outbreak in the stony coral community in terms of composition and the effect on the coral community calcification. This disease outbreak had severe consequences for this site. Several colonies of susceptible species were lost, which resulted in significant changes in the coral community composition and reductions in the gross carbonate production in a period of only 8 months.

Reef-scale impacts of the stony coral tissue loss disease outbreak

Observations of coral reef losses to climate change far exceed our understanding of historical degradation before anthropogenic warming. This is a critical gap to fill as conservation efforts simultaneously work to reverse climate change while restoring coral reef diversity and function. Here, we focused on southern China’s Greater Bay Area, where coral communities persist despite centuries of coral mining, fishing, dredging, development, and pollution. We compared subfossil assemblages with modern-day communities and revealed a 40% decrease in generic diversity, concomitant to a shift from competitive to stress-tolerant species dominance since the mid-Holocene. Regions with characteristically poor water quality—high chl-a, dissolved inorganic nitrogen, and turbidity—had lower contemporary diversity and the greatest community composition shift observed in the past, driven by the near extirpation of Acropora. These observations highlight the urgent need to mitigate local stressors from development in concert with curbing greenhouse gas emissions.

https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/advances/6/40/eabb1046.full.pdf

Coral reef diversity losses in China's Greater Bay Area were driven by regional stressors.

Functional integrity on coral reefs is strongly dependent upon coral cover and coral carbonate production rate being sufficient to maintain three-dimensional reef structures. Increasing environmental and anthropogenic pressures in recent decades have reduced the cover of key reef-building species, producing a shift towards the relative dominance of more stress-tolerant taxa and leading to a reduction in the physical functional integrity. Understanding how changes in coral community composition influence the potential of reefs to maintain their physical reef functioning is a priority for their conservation and management. Here, we evaluate how coral communities have changed in the northern sector of the Mexican Caribbean between 1985 and 2016, and the implications for the maintenance of physical reef functions in the back- and fore-reef zones. We used the cover of coral species to explore changes in four morpho-functional groups, coral community composition, coral community calcification, the reef functional index and the reef carbonate budget. Over a period of 31 years, ecological homogenization occurred between the two reef zones mostly due to a reduction in the cover of framework-building branching (Acropora spp.) and foliose-digitiform (Porites porites and Agaricia tenuifolia) coral species in the back-reef, and a relative increase in non-framework species in the fore-reef (Agaricia agaricites and Porites astreoides). This resulted in a significant decrease in the physical functionality of the back-reef zone. At present, both reef zones have negative carbonate budgets, and thus limited capacity to sustain reef accretion, compromising the existing reef structure and its future capacity to provide habitat and environmental services.

https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/pdf/10.1098/rsos.190298

Eric Jordán-Dalhgren

Papers

Functional consequences of the long-term decline of reef-building corals in the Caribbean: evidence of across-reef functional convergence