Eric L. Berlow

Bio: Eric L. Berlow is an academic researcher from University of California, Berkeley. The author has contributed to research in topics: Ecological network & Biodiversity. The author has an hindex of 27, co-authored 41 publications receiving 14870 citations. Previous affiliations of Eric L. Berlow include University of California, Merced & United States Geological Survey.

Global biodiversity scenarios for the year 2100.

Abstract: Scenarios of changes in biodiversity for the year 2100 can now be developed based on scenarios of changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide, climate, vegetation, and land use and the known sensitivity of biodiversity to these changes. This study identified a ranking of the importance of drivers of change, a ranking of the biomes with respect to expected changes, and the major sources of uncertainties. For terrestrial ecosystems, land-use change probably will have the largest effect, followed by climate change, nitrogen deposition, biotic exchange, and elevated carbon dioxide concentration. For freshwater ecosystems, biotic exchange is much more important. Mediterranean climate and grassland ecosystems likely will experience the greatest proportional change in biodiversity because of the substantial influence of all drivers of biodiversity change. Northern temperate ecosystems are estimated to experience the least biodiversity change because major land-use change has already occurred. Plausible changes in biodiversity in other biomes depend on interactions among the causes of biodiversity change. These interactions represent one of the largest uncertainties in projections of future biodiversity change.

Approaching a state shift in Earth’s biosphere

Abstract: There is evidence that human influence may be forcing the global ecosystem towards a rapid, irreversible, planetary-scale shift into a state unknown in human experience. Most forecasts of how the biosphere will change in response to human activity are rooted in projecting trajectories. Such models tend not anticipate critical transitions or tipping points, although recent work indicates a high probability of those taking place. And, at a local scale, ecosystems are known to shift abruptly between states when critical thresholds are passed. These authors review the evidence from across ecology and palaeontology that such a transition is being approached on the scale of the entire biosphere. They go on to suggest how biological forecasting might be improved to allow us to detect early warning signs of critical transitions on a global, as well as local, scale. Localized ecological systems are known to shift abruptly and irreversibly from one state to another when they are forced across critical thresholds. Here we review evidence that the global ecosystem as a whole can react in the same way and is approaching a planetary-scale critical transition as a result of human influence. The plausibility of a planetary-scale ‘tipping point’ highlights the need to improve biological forecasting by detecting early warning signs of critical transitions on global as well as local scales, and by detecting feedbacks that promote such transitions. It is also necessary to address root causes of how humans are forcing biological changes.

Detritus, trophic dynamics and biodiversity

Abstract: Traditional approaches to the study of food webs emphasize the transfer of local primary productivity in the form of living plant organic matter across trophic levels. However, dead organic matter, or detritus, a common feature of most ecosystems plays a frequently overlooked role as a dynamic heterogeneous resource and habitat for many species. We develop an integrative framework for understanding the impact of detritus that emphasizes the ontogeny and heterogeneity of detritus and the various ways that explicit inclusion of detrital dynamics alters generalizations about the structure and functioning of food webs. Through its influences on food web composition and dynamics, detritus often increases system stability and persistence, having substantial effects on trophic structure and biodiversity. Inclusion of detrital heterogeneity in models of food web dynamics is an essential new direction for ecological research.

The Keystone Species Concept: Variation in Interaction Strength in a Rocky Intertidal Habitat

Abstract: The usefulness and generality of the keystone species concept has recently been questioned. We investigated variation in interaction strength between the original keystone predator, the seastar Pisaster ochraceus, and its primary prey, mussels (Mytilus californianus and M. trossulus). The study was prompted by differences in community structure at two low zone sites along the central Oregon coast, Boiler Bay (BB) and Strawberry Hill (SH). Predators, especially seastars, were larger and more abundant at SH than at BB. Further, sessile animals were more abundant and macrophytes were less abundant at SH. Predators were more abundant at wave—exposed sites at both sites, and at SH, sessile invertebrates were more abundant at the wave—exposed location and sand cover was high at the wave—protected location. To test the hypothesis that variation in predation strength explained some of these differences, we examined the seastar—mussel interaction at locations with high and low wave exposure at both sites. Predation intensity was quantified by determining the survival of mussels in clumps (50 mussels per clump, shell length 4—7 cm) transplanted to large plots (18—163 m2) with or without seastars in the low intertidal zone. Predation effects were quantified by determining prey recolonization rates in marked quadrats in the same large plots. Spatial variation in interaction strength was quantified by examining predation at scales of metres (among transplants within plots), 10's of metres (between replicate plots within each exposure at each site), 100's of metres (between wave exposures within locations), and 10 000's of metres (between sites). Temporal variation was evaluated by performing the experiments in 1990 and 1991. The relation between prey (mussel) recruitment and growth to differences in community structure was evaluated by quantifying recruitment density in plastic mesh balls (collectors) and growth of individually marked transplanted mussels, respectively, at each site ° exposure ° tide level combination each month for 4 yr. Predation intensity varied greatly at all spatial scales. At the two largest spatial scales (10's of kilometres, 100's of metres), differences in both survival of transplanted mussels and prey recolonization depended on variation in seastar abundance with site, wave exposure, prey recruitment and growth, and at SH protected, the extent of sand burial. Variation at the two smallest scales (metres, 10's of metres) was high when seastars were scarce and low when seastars were abundant. Transplanted mussels suffered 100% mortality in 2 wk at wave—exposed SH, but took >52 wk at wave—protected BB. Seastar effects on prey recolonization were detected only at the SH wave—exposed site. Here, where prey recruitment and growth were unusually high, the mussel M. trossulus invaded and dominated space within 9 mo. After 14 mo, whelks, which increased in both size and abundance in the absence of Pisaster, arrested this increase in mussel abundance. Similar changes did not occur at other site ° exposure combinations, evidently because prey recruitment was low and possibly also due to whelk predation on juveniles. Longer term results indicate that, as in Washington state, seastars prevent large adult M. californianus from invading lower intertidal regions, but only at wave—exposed, not wave—protected sites. Thus, three distinct predation regimes were observed: (1) strong keystone predation by seastars at wave—exposed headlands; (2) less—strong diffuse predation by seastars, whelks, and possibly other predators at a wave—protected cove, and (3) weak predation at a wave—protected site buried regularly by sand. Comparable experimental results at four wave—exposed headlands (our two in Oregon and two others in Washington), and similarities between these and communities on other West Coast headlands suggest keystone predation occurs broadly in this system. Results in wave—protected habitats, however, suggest it is not universal. In Oregon, keystone predation was evidently contingent on conditions of high prey production (i.e., recruitment and growth), while diffuse predation occurred when prey production was low, and weak predation occurred when environmental stress was high. Combining our results with examples from other marine and non—marine habitats suggests a need to consider a broader range of models than just keystone predation. The predictive and explanatory value of an expanded set of models depends on identifying factors distinguishing them. Although evidence is limited, a survey of 17 examples suggests (1) keystone predation is evidently not distinguished from diffuse predation by any of 11 previously proposed differences, but (2) may be distinguished by rates of prey production. Further, (3) differential predation on competitively dominant prey does not distinguish keystone from nonkeystone systems, since this interaction occurs in both types of community. Instead, differential predation on dominant prey evidently distinguishes strong—from weak—predation communities. While the keystone predation concept has been and will continue to be useful, a broadened focus on testing and developing more general models of community regulation is needed.

Interaction strengths in food webs: issues and opportunities

Abstract: Summary 1. Recent efforts to understand how the patterning of interaction strength affects both structure and dynamics in food webs have highlighted several obstacles to productive synthesis. Issues arise with respect to goals and driving questions, methods and approaches, and placing results in the context of broader ecological theory. 2. Much confusion stems from lack of clarity about whether the questions posed relate to community-level patterns or to species dynamics, and to what authors actually mean by the term ‘interaction strength’. Here, we describe the various ways in which this term has been applied and discuss the implications of loose terminology and definition for the development of this field. 3. Of particular concern is the clear gap between theoretical and empirical investigations of interaction strengths and food web dynamics. The ecological community urgently needs to explore new ways to estimate biologically reasonable model coefficients from empirical data, such as foraging rates, body size, metabolic rate, biomass distribution and other species traits. 4. Combining numerical and analytical modelling approaches should allow exploration of the conditions under which different interaction strengths metrics are interchangeable with regard to relative magnitude, system responses, and species identity. 5. Finally, the prime focus on predator‐prey links in much of the research to date on interaction strengths in food webs has meant that the potential significance of nontrophic interactions, such as competition, facilitation and biotic disturbance, has been largely ignored by the food web community. Such interactions may be important dynamically and should be routinely included in future food web research programmes.

The Structure and Function of Complex Networks

Abstract: Inspired by empirical studies of networked systems such as the Internet, social networks, and biological networks, researchers have in recent years developed a variety of techniques and models to help us understand or predict the behavior of these systems. Here we review developments in this field, including such concepts as the small-world effect, degree distributions, clustering, network correlations, random graph models, models of network growth and preferential attachment, and dynamical processes taking place on networks.

A safe operating space for humanity

Abstract: Identifying and quantifying planetary boundaries that must not be transgressed could help prevent human activities from causing unacceptable environmental change, argue Johan Rockstrom and colleagues.

Planetary boundaries: Guiding human development on a changing planet

Abstract: The planetary boundaries framework defines a safe operating space for humanity based on the intrinsic biophysical processes that regulate the stability of the Earth system. Here, we revise and update the planetary boundary framework, with a focus on the underpinning biophysical science, based on targeted input from expert research communities and on more general scientific advances over the past 5 years. Several of the boundaries now have a two-tier approach, reflecting the importance of cross-scale interactions and the regional-level heterogeneity of the processes that underpin the boundaries. Two core boundaries—climate change and biosphere integrity—have been identified, each of which has the potential on its own to drive the Earth system into a new state should they be substantially and persistently transgressed.

Extinction risk from climate change

Abstract: Climate change over the past approximately 30 years has produced numerous shifts in the distributions and abundances of species and has been implicated in one species-level extinction. Using projections of species' distributions for future climate scenarios, we assess extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth's terrestrial surface. Exploring three approaches in which the estimated probability of extinction shows a power-law relationship with geographical range size, we predict, on the basis of mid-range climate-warming scenarios for 2050, that 15-37% of species in our sample of regions and taxa will be 'committed to extinction'. When the average of the three methods and two dispersal scenarios is taken, minimal climate-warming scenarios produce lower projections of species committed to extinction ( approximately 18%) than mid-range ( approximately 24%) and maximum-change ( approximately 35%) scenarios. These estimates show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and strategies for carbon sequestration.