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Eugenia Kalnay

Bio: Eugenia Kalnay is an academic researcher from University of Maryland, College Park. The author has contributed to research in topics: Data assimilation & Ensemble Kalman filter. The author has an hindex of 61, co-authored 259 publications receiving 52574 citations. Previous affiliations of Eugenia Kalnay include Goddard Space Flight Center & Eötvös Loránd University.


Papers
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Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The NCEP/NCAR 40-yr reanalysis uses a frozen state-of-the-art global data assimilation system and a database as complete as possible, except that the horizontal resolution is T62 (about 210 km) as discussed by the authors.
Abstract: The NCEP and NCAR are cooperating in a project (denoted “reanalysis”) to produce a 40-year record of global analyses of atmospheric fields in support of the needs of the research and climate monitoring communities. This effort involves the recovery of land surface, ship, rawinsonde, pibal, aircraft, satellite, and other data; quality controlling and assimilating these data with a data assimilation system that is kept unchanged over the reanalysis period 1957–96. This eliminates perceived climate jumps associated with changes in the data assimilation system. The NCEP/NCAR 40-yr reanalysis uses a frozen state-of-the-art global data assimilation system and a database as complete as possible. The data assimilation and the model used are identical to the global system implemented operationally at the NCEP on 11 January 1995, except that the horizontal resolution is T62 (about 210 km). The database has been enhanced with many sources of observations not available in real time for operations, provided b...

28,145 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) have cooperated in a project to produce a retroactive record of more than 50 years of global analyses of atmospheric fields in support of the needs of the research and climate monitoring communities as mentioned in this paper.
Abstract: The National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) have cooperated in a project (denoted “reanalysis”) to produce a retroactive record of more than 50 years of global analyses of atmospheric fields in support of the needs of the research and climate monitoring communities. This effort involved the recovery of land surface, ship, rawinsonde, pibal, aircraft, satellite, and other data. These data were then quality controlled and assimilated with a data assimilation system kept unchanged over the reanalysis period. This eliminated perceived climate jumps associated with changes in the operational (real time) data assimilation system, although the reanalysis is still affected by changes in the observing systems. During the earliest decade (1948–57), there were fewer upper-air data observations and they were made 3 h later than the current main synoptic times (e.g., 0300 UTC), and primarily in the Northern Hemisphere, so that the reanalysis is less reliable than for th later 40 years. The reanalysis data assimilation system continues to be used with current data in real time (Climate Data Assimilation System or CDAS), so that its products are available from 1948 to the present. The products include, in addition to the gridded reanalysis fields, 8-day forecasts every 5 days, and the binary universal format representation (BUFR) archive of the atmospheric observations. The products can be obtained from NCAR, NCEP, and from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/ Climate Diagnostics Center (NOAA/CDC). (Their Web page addresses can be linked to from the Web page of the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis at http:// wesley.wwb.noaa.gov/Reanalysis.html.) This issue of the Bulletin includes a CD-ROM with a documentation of the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis (Kistler et al. 1999). In this paper we present a brief summary and some highlights of the documentation (also available on the Web at http://atmos.umd.edu/ ~ekalnay/). The CD-ROM, similar to the one issued with the March 1996 issue of the Bulletin, contains 41 yr (1958–97) of monthly means of many reanalysis variables and estimates of precipitation derived from satellite and in situ observations (see the appenThe NCEP–NCAR 50-Year Reanalysis: Monthly Means CD-ROM and Documentation

4,270 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) project as mentioned in this paper uses the NCEP Eta model and its Data Assimilation System (at 32-km-45-layer resolution with 3-hourly output) to capture regional hydrological cycle, the diurnal cycle and other important features of weather and climate variability.
Abstract: In 1997, during the late stages of production of NCEP–NCAR Global Reanalysis (GR), exploration of a regional reanalysis project was suggested by the GR project's Advisory Committee, “particularly if the RDAS [Regional Data Assimilation System] is significantly better than the global reanalysis at capturing the regional hydrological cycle, the diurnal cycle and other important features of weather and climate variability.” Following a 6-yr development and production effort, NCEP's North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) project was completed in 2004, and data are now available to the scientific community. Along with the use of the NCEP Eta model and its Data Assimilation System (at 32-km–45-layer resolution with 3-hourly output), the hallmarks of the NARR are the incorporation of hourly assimilation of precipitation, which leverages a comprehensive precipitation analysis effort, the use of a recent version of the Noah land surface model, and the use of numerous other datasets that are additional or improv...

3,080 citations

Book
01 Nov 2002
TL;DR: A comprehensive text and reference work on numerical weather prediction, first published in 2002, covers not only methods for numerical modeling, but also the important related areas of data assimilation and predictability.
Abstract: This comprehensive text and reference work on numerical weather prediction, first published in 2002, covers not only methods for numerical modeling, but also the important related areas of data assimilation and predictability. It incorporates all aspects of environmental computer modeling including an historical overview of the subject, equations of motion and their approximations, a modern and clear description of numerical methods, and the determination of initial conditions using weather observations (an important science known as data assimilation). Finally, this book provides a clear discussion of the problems of predictability and chaos in dynamical systems and how they can be applied to atmospheric and oceanic systems. Professors and students in meteorology, atmospheric science, oceanography, hydrology and environmental science will find much to interest them in this book, which can also form the basis of one or more graduate-level courses.

2,240 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
29 May 2003-Nature
TL;DR: The difference between trends in observed surface temperatures in the continental United States and the corresponding trends in a reconstruction of surface temperatures determined from a reanalysis of global weather over the past 50 years is used to estimate the impact of land-use changes on surface warming.
Abstract: The most important anthropogenic influences on climate are the emission of greenhouse gases1 and changes in land use, such as urbanization and agriculture2. But it has been difficult to separate these two influences because both tend to increase the daily mean surface temperature3,4. The impact of urbanization has been estimated by comparing observations in cities with those in surrounding rural areas, but the results differ significantly depending on whether population data5 or satellite measurements of night light6,7,8 are used to classify urban and rural areas7,8. Here we use the difference between trends in observed surface temperatures in the continental United States and the corresponding trends in a reconstruction of surface temperatures determined from a reanalysis of global weather over the past 50 years, which is insensitive to surface observations, to estimate the impact of land-use changes on surface warming. Our results suggest that half of the observed decrease in diurnal temperature range is due to urban and other land-use changes. Moreover, our estimate of 0.27 °C mean surface warming per century due to land-use changes is at least twice as high as previous estimates based on urbanization alone7,8.

2,018 citations


Cited by
More filters
Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The NCEP/NCAR 40-yr reanalysis uses a frozen state-of-the-art global data assimilation system and a database as complete as possible, except that the horizontal resolution is T62 (about 210 km) as discussed by the authors.
Abstract: The NCEP and NCAR are cooperating in a project (denoted “reanalysis”) to produce a 40-year record of global analyses of atmospheric fields in support of the needs of the research and climate monitoring communities. This effort involves the recovery of land surface, ship, rawinsonde, pibal, aircraft, satellite, and other data; quality controlling and assimilating these data with a data assimilation system that is kept unchanged over the reanalysis period 1957–96. This eliminates perceived climate jumps associated with changes in the data assimilation system. The NCEP/NCAR 40-yr reanalysis uses a frozen state-of-the-art global data assimilation system and a database as complete as possible. The data assimilation and the model used are identical to the global system implemented operationally at the NCEP on 11 January 1995, except that the horizontal resolution is T62 (about 210 km). The database has been enhanced with many sources of observations not available in real time for operations, provided b...

28,145 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: ERA-Interim as discussed by the authors is the latest global atmospheric reanalysis produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), which will extend back to the early part of the twentieth century.
Abstract: ERA-Interim is the latest global atmospheric reanalysis produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The ERA-Interim project was conducted in part to prepare for a new atmospheric reanalysis to replace ERA-40, which will extend back to the early part of the twentieth century. This article describes the forecast model, data assimilation method, and input datasets used to produce ERA-Interim, and discusses the performance of the system. Special emphasis is placed on various difficulties encountered in the production of ERA-40, including the representation of the hydrological cycle, the quality of the stratospheric circulation, and the consistency in time of the reanalysed fields. We provide evidence for substantial improvements in each of these aspects. We also identify areas where further work is needed and describe opportunities and objectives for future reanalysis projects at ECMWF. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society

22,055 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
22 Jul 2005-Science
TL;DR: Global croplands, pastures, plantations, and urban areas have expanded in recent decades, accompanied by large increases in energy, water, and fertilizer consumption, along with considerable losses of biodiversity.
Abstract: Land use has generally been considered a local environmental issue, but it is becoming a force of global importance. Worldwide changes to forests, farmlands, waterways, and air are being driven by the need to provide food, fiber, water, and shelter to more than six billion people. Global croplands, pastures, plantations, and urban areas have expanded in recent decades, accompanied by large increases in energy, water, and fertilizer consumption, along with considerable losses of biodiversity. Such changes in land use have enabled humans to appropriate an increasing share of the planet’s resources, but they also potentially undermine the capacity of ecosystems to sustain food production, maintain freshwater and forest resources, regulate climate and air quality, and ameliorate infectious diseases. We face the challenge of managing trade-offs between immediate human needs and maintaining the capacity of the biosphere to provide goods and services in the long term.

10,117 citations

01 Jan 2007
TL;DR: Drafting Authors: Neil Adger, Pramod Aggarwal, Shardul Agrawala, Joseph Alcamo, Abdelkader Allali, Oleg Anisimov, Nigel Arnell, Michel Boko, Osvaldo Canziani, Timothy Carter, Gino Casassa, Ulisses Confalonieri, Rex Victor Cruz, Edmundo de Alba Alcaraz, William Easterling, Christopher Field, Andreas Fischlin, Blair Fitzharris.
Abstract: Drafting Authors: Neil Adger, Pramod Aggarwal, Shardul Agrawala, Joseph Alcamo, Abdelkader Allali, Oleg Anisimov, Nigel Arnell, Michel Boko, Osvaldo Canziani, Timothy Carter, Gino Casassa, Ulisses Confalonieri, Rex Victor Cruz, Edmundo de Alba Alcaraz, William Easterling, Christopher Field, Andreas Fischlin, Blair Fitzharris, Carlos Gay García, Clair Hanson, Hideo Harasawa, Kevin Hennessy, Saleemul Huq, Roger Jones, Lucka Kajfež Bogataj, David Karoly, Richard Klein, Zbigniew Kundzewicz, Murari Lal, Rodel Lasco, Geoff Love, Xianfu Lu, Graciela Magrín, Luis José Mata, Roger McLean, Bettina Menne, Guy Midgley, Nobuo Mimura, Monirul Qader Mirza, José Moreno, Linda Mortsch, Isabelle Niang-Diop, Robert Nicholls, Béla Nováky, Leonard Nurse, Anthony Nyong, Michael Oppenheimer, Jean Palutikof, Martin Parry, Anand Patwardhan, Patricia Romero Lankao, Cynthia Rosenzweig, Stephen Schneider, Serguei Semenov, Joel Smith, John Stone, Jean-Pascal van Ypersele, David Vaughan, Coleen Vogel, Thomas Wilbanks, Poh Poh Wong, Shaohong Wu, Gary Yohe

7,720 citations