The NCEP and NCAR are cooperating in a project (denoted “reanalysis”) to produce a 40-year record of global analyses of atmospheric fields in support of the needs of the research and climate monitoring communities. This effort involves the recovery of land surface, ship, rawinsonde, pibal, aircraft, satellite, and other data; quality controlling and assimilating these data with a data assimilation system that is kept unchanged over the reanalysis period 1957–96. This eliminates perceived climate jumps associated with changes in the data assimilation system. The NCEP/NCAR 40-yr reanalysis uses a frozen state-of-the-art global data assimilation system and a database as complete as possible. The data assimilation and the model used are identical to the global system implemented operationally at the NCEP on 11 January 1995, except that the horizontal resolution is T62 (about 210 km). The database has been enhanced with many sources of observations not available in real time for operations, provided b...

The NCEP/NCAR 40-Year Reanalysis Project

ERA-Interim is the latest global atmospheric reanalysis produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The ERA-Interim project was conducted in part to prepare for a new atmospheric reanalysis to replace ERA-40, which will extend back to the early part of the twentieth century. This article describes the forecast model, data assimilation method, and input datasets used to produce ERA-Interim, and discusses the performance of the system. Special emphasis is placed on various difficulties encountered in the production of ERA-40, including the representation of the hydrological cycle, the quality of the stratospheric circulation, and the consistency in time of the reanalysed fields. We provide evidence for substantial improvements in each of these aspects. We also identify areas where further work is needed and describe opportunities and objectives for future reanalysis projects at ECMWF. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society

The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system

Land use has generally been considered a local environmental issue, but it is becoming a force of global importance. Worldwide changes to forests, farmlands, waterways, and air are being driven by the need to provide food, fiber, water, and shelter to more than six billion people. Global croplands, pastures, plantations, and urban areas have expanded in recent decades, accompanied by large increases in energy, water, and fertilizer consumption, along with considerable losses of biodiversity. Such changes in land use have enabled humans to appropriate an increasing share of the planet’s resources, but they also potentially undermine the capacity of ecosystems to sustain food production, maintain freshwater and forest resources, regulate climate and air quality, and ameliorate infectious diseases. We face the challenge of managing trade-offs between immediate human needs and maintaining the capacity of the biosphere to provide goods and services in the long term.

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Global Consequences of Land Use

世界経済・社会統計 = World development indicators

Drafting Authors: Neil Adger, Pramod Aggarwal, Shardul Agrawala, Joseph Alcamo, Abdelkader Allali, Oleg Anisimov, Nigel Arnell, Michel Boko, Osvaldo Canziani, Timothy Carter, Gino Casassa, Ulisses Confalonieri, Rex Victor Cruz, Edmundo de Alba Alcaraz, William Easterling, Christopher Field, Andreas Fischlin, Blair Fitzharris, Carlos Gay García, Clair Hanson, Hideo Harasawa, Kevin Hennessy, Saleemul Huq, Roger Jones, Lucka Kajfež Bogataj, David Karoly, Richard Klein, Zbigniew Kundzewicz, Murari Lal, Rodel Lasco, Geoff Love, Xianfu Lu, Graciela Magrín, Luis José Mata, Roger McLean, Bettina Menne, Guy Midgley, Nobuo Mimura, Monirul Qader Mirza, José Moreno, Linda Mortsch, Isabelle Niang-Diop, Robert Nicholls, Béla Nováky, Leonard Nurse, Anthony Nyong, Michael Oppenheimer, Jean Palutikof, Martin Parry, Anand Patwardhan, Patricia Romero Lankao, Cynthia Rosenzweig, Stephen Schneider, Serguei Semenov, Joel Smith, John Stone, Jean-Pascal van Ypersele, David Vaughan, Coleen Vogel, Thomas Wilbanks, Poh Poh Wong, Shaohong Wu, Gary Yohe

Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

This paper outlines the basic concept and mathematical formulation of the Local Ensemble Kalman Filter (LEKF, Ott et al. 2002 and 2003) data assimilation scheme. Some important properties of the scheme are illustrated by numerical experiments with the Lorenz-96 model. Initial implementations of the LEKF on the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Global Forecast System (NCEP GFS) are discussed. Tests of these implementations under the perfect model hypothesis are conducted.

http://www.weatherchaos.umd.edu/papers/LEFK_AMS_Proceedings.pdf

A local ensemble Kalman filter for the NCEP GFS model

Effective Assimilation of Global Precipitation

/pdf/evaluation-of-an-optimal-spectral-sampling-retrieval-4i5ppdq6gs.pdf

Evaluation of an Optimal Spectral Sampling Retrieval Algorithm For Thermal Emission Spectrometer Radiances

The Human System is within the Earth System. They should be modeled bidirectionally coupled, as they are in reality. The Human System is rapidly expanding, mostly due to consumption of fossil fuels...

https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/pdf/10.1146/annurev-earth-053018-060428

A Novel Approach to Carrying Capacity: From a priori Prescription to a posteriori Derivation Based on Underlying Mechanisms and Dynamics

As part of the International Symposium on Assimilation of Observation in Meteorology and Oceanography, a panel discussion was held on the evening of 15 March 1995. The purpose of this panel discussion was focus on what the next major areas of research in data assimilation should be. The panelists had five minutes each for short presentations (Kalman filters, representers, etc.) and this was followed by an open discussion. This preprocessing will require a good understanding of the fine-scale phenomena. Least square methods such as Kalman filters and variational schemes are inefficient estimators of non-Gaussian field such as chemical traces. Regardless of the modeling technique employed (Lagrangian methods seem best), a least squares assimilation scheme will smear fine structure. The estimator of maximum likelihood must be sought, by examination of tracer probability distributions.

Eugenia Kalnay

Papers

A local ensemble Kalman filter for the NCEP GFS model

Effective Assimilation of Global Precipitation

Evaluation of an Optimal Spectral Sampling Retrieval Algorithm For Thermal Emission Spectrometer Radiances

A Novel Approach to Carrying Capacity: From a priori Prescription to a posteriori Derivation Based on Underlying Mechanisms and Dynamics

Data Assimilation in the Ocean and in the Atmosphere: What Should be Next?