Fernando Miralles-Wilhelm

Bio: Fernando Miralles-Wilhelm is an academic researcher from University of Maryland, College Park. The author has contributed to research in topics: Nexus (standard) & Water scarcity. The author has an hindex of 31, co-authored 94 publications receiving 3377 citations. Previous affiliations of Fernando Miralles-Wilhelm include Florida International University & Inter-American Development Bank.

Temperature, Humidity, and Latitude Analysis to Estimate Potential Spread and Seasonality of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19).

Abstract: Importance Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infection has resulted in a global crisis. Investigating the potential association of climate and seasonality with the spread of this infection could aid in preventive and surveillance strategies. Objective To examine the association of climate with the spread of COVID-19 infection. Design, Setting, and Participants This cohort study examined climate data from 50 cities worldwide with and without substantial community spread of COVID-19. Eight cities with substantial spread of COVID-19 (Wuhan, China; Tokyo, Japan; Daegu, South Korea; Qom, Iran; Milan, Italy; Paris, France; Seattle, US; and Madrid, Spain) were compared with 42 cities that have not been affected or did not have substantial community spread. Data were collected from January to March 10, 2020. Main Outcomes and Measures Substantial community transmission was defined as at least 10 reported deaths in a country as of March 10, 2020. Climate data (latitude, mean 2-m temperature, mean specific humidity, and mean relative humidity) were obtained from ERA-5 reanalysis. Results The 8 cities with substantial community spread as of March 10, 2020, were located on a narrow band, roughly on the 30° N to 50° N corridor. They had consistently similar weather patterns, consisting of mean temperatures of between 5 and 11 °C, combined with low specific humidity (3-6 g/kg) and low absolute humidity (4-7 g/m3). There was a lack of substantial community establishment in expected locations based on proximity. For example, while Wuhan, China (30.8° N) had 3136 deaths and 80 757 cases, Moscow, Russia (56.0° N), had 0 deaths and 10 cases and Hanoi, Vietnam (21.2° N), had 0 deaths and 31 cases. Conclusions and Relevance In this study, the distribution of substantial community outbreaks of COVID-19 along restricted latitude, temperature, and humidity measurements was consistent with the behavior of a seasonal respiratory virus. Using weather modeling, it may be possible to estimate the regions most likely to be at a higher risk of substantial community spread of COVID-19 in the upcoming weeks, allowing for concentration of public health efforts on surveillance and containment.

Temperature, Humidity and Latitude Analysis to Predict Potential Spread and Seasonality for COVID-19

Abstract: BACKGROUND: A significant number of infectious diseases display seasonal patterns in their incidence, including human coronaviruses Betacoronaviruses such as MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV are not thought to be seasonal METHODS: We examined climate data from cities with significant community spread of COVID-19 using ERA-5 reanalysis, and compared to areas that are either not affected, or do not have significant community spread FINDINGS: To date, Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by SARS-CoV-2, has established significant community spread in cities and regions along a narrow east west distribution roughly along the 30-50o N' corridor at consistently similar weather patterns consisting of average temperatures of 5-11oC, combined with low specific (3-6 g/kg) and absolute humidity (4-7 g/m3) There has been a lack of significant community establishment in expected locations that are based only on population proximity and extensive population interaction through travel INTERPRETATION: The distribution of significant community outbreaks along restricted latitude, temperature, and humidity are consistent with the behavior of a seasonal respiratory virus Additionally, we have proposed a simplified model that shows a zone at increased risk for COVID-19 spread Using weather modeling, it may be possible to predict the regions most likely to be at higher risk of significant community spread of COVID-19 in the upcoming weeks, allowing for concentration of public health efforts on surveillance and containment

Biophysical properties and functional significance of stem water storage tissues in Neotropical savanna trees.

Abstract: Biophysical characteristics of sapwood and outer paren- chyma water storage compartments were studied in stems of eight dominant Brazilian Cerrado tree species to assess the impact of differences in tissue capacitance on whole- plant water relations. The rate of decline in tissue water potential with relative water content (RWC) was greater in the outer parenchyma than in the sapwood for most of the species, resulting in tissue-and species-specific differences in capacitance. Sapwood capacitance on a tissue volume basis ranged from 40 to 160 kg m -3 MPa -1 , whereas outer parenchyma capacitance ranged from 25 to only 60 kg m -3 MPa -1 . In addition, osmotic potentials at full turgor and at the turgor loss point were more negative for the outer parenchyma compared with the sapwood, and the maximum bulk elastic modulus was higher for the outer parenchyma than for the sapwood. Sapwood capacitance decreased linearly with increasing sapwood density across species, but there was no significant correlation between outer parenchyma capacitance and tissue density. Midday leaf water potential, the total hydraulic conductance of the soil/leaf pathway and stomatal conductance to water vapour (gs) all increased with stem volumetric capacitance, or with the relative contribution of stored water to total daily transpiration. However, the difference between the pre-dawn water potential of non-transpiring leaves and the weighted average soil water potential, a measure of the water potential disequilibrium between the plant and soil, increased asymptotically with total stem capacitance across species, implying that overnight recharge of water storage compartments was incomplete in species with greater capacitance. Overall, stem capacitance contributes to homeostasis in the diurnal and seasonal water balance of Cerrado trees.

Nutrient availability constrains the hydraulic architecture and water relations of savannah trees.

Abstract: Leaf and whole plant-level functional traits were studied in five dominant woody savannah species from Central Brazil (Cerrado) to determine whether reduction of nutrient limitations in oligotrophic Cerrado soils affects carbon allocation, water relations and hydraulic architecture. Four treatments were used: control, N additions, P additions and N plus P additions. Fertilizers were applied twice yearly, from October 1998 to March 2004. Sixty-three months after the first nutrient addition, the total leaf area increment was significantly greater across all species in the N- and the N + P-fertilized plots than in the control and in the P- fertilized plots. Nitrogen fertilization significantly altered several components of hydraulic architecture: specific conductivity of terminal stems increased with N addi- tions, whereas leaf-specific conductivity and wood density decreased in most cases. Average daily sap flow per individ- ual was consistently higher with N and N + P additions compared to the control, but its relative increase was not as great as that of leaf area. Long-term additions of N and N + P caused midday Y L to decline significantly by a mean of 0.6 MPa across all species because N-induced relative reductions in soil-to-leaf hydraulic conductance were greater than those of stomatal conductance and tran- spiration on a leaf area basis. Phosphorus-fertilized trees did not exhibit significant changes in midday Y L. Analysis of xylem vulnerability curves indicated that N-fertilized trees were significantly less vulnerable to embolism than trees in control and P-fertilized plots. Thus, N-induced decreases in midday Y L appeared to be almost entirely compensated by increases in resistance to embolism. Leaf tissue water relations characteristics also changed as a result of N-induced declines in minimum Y L : osmotic potential at full turgor decreased and symplastic solute con- tent on a dry matter basis increased linearly with declining midday Y L across species and treatments. Despite being adapted to chronic nutrient limitations, Cerrado woody species apparently have the capacity to exploit increases in nutrient availability by allocating resources to maximize carbon gain and enhance growth. The cost of increased allocation to leaf area relative to water transport capacity involved increased total water loss per plant and a decrease in minimum leaf water potentials. However, the risk of increased embolism and turgor loss was relatively low as xylem vulnerability to embolism and leaf osmotic charac- teristics changed in parallel with changes in plant water status induced by N fertilization.

Removal of nutrient limitations by long-term fertilization decreases nocturnal water loss in savanna trees.

Abstract: Under certain environmental conditions, nocturnal transpiration can be relatively high in temperate and tropical woody species. We have previously shown that nocturnal sap flow accounts for up to 28% of total daily transpiration in woody species growing in a nutrient-poor Brazilian Cerrado ecosystem. In the present study, we assessed the effect of increased nutrient supply on nocturnal transpiration in three dominant Cerrado tree species to explore the hypothesis that, in nutrient-poor systems, continued transpiration at night may enhance delivery of nutrients to root-absorbing surfaces. We compared nocturnal transpiration of trees growing in unfertilized plots and plots to which nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) had been added twice yearly from 1998 to 2005. Three independent indicators of nocturnal transpiration were evaluated: sap flow in terminal branches, stomatal conductance (g(s)), and disequilibrium in water potential between covered and exposed leaves (DeltaPsi(L)). In the unfertilized trees, about 25% of the total daily sap flow occurred at night. Nocturnal sap flow was consistently lower in the N- and P-fertilized trees, significantly so in trees in the N treatment. Similarly, nocturnal g(s) was consistently lower in fertilized trees than in unfertilized trees where it sometimes reached values of 150 mmol m(-2) s(-1) by the end of the dark period. Predawn gs and the percentage of nocturnal sap flow were linearly related. Nocturnal DeltaPsi(L) was significantly greater in the unfertilized trees than in N- and P-fertilized trees. The absolute magnitude of DeltaPsi(L) increased linearly with the percentage of nocturnal sap flow. These results are consistent with the idea that enhancing nutrient uptake by allowing additional transpiration to occur at night when evaporative demand is lower may avoid excessive dehydration associated with increased stomatal opening during the day when evaporative demand is high.

Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability.

Abstract: Impatti, adattamento e vulnerabilita Le cause e le responsabilita dei cambiamenti climatici sono state trattate sul numero di ottobre della rivista Cda. Approfondiamo l’argomento presentando il documento: “Cambiamenti climatici 2007: impatti, adattamento e vulnerabilita” votato ad aprile 2007 dal secondo gruppo di lavoro del Comitato Intergovernativo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). Si tratta del secondo di tre documenti che compongono il quarto rapporto sui cambiamenti climatici.

Global assessment of nitrogen deposition effects on terrestrial plant diversity: a synthesis.

Abstract: Atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition is a recognized threat to plant diversity in temperate and northern parts of Europe and North America. This paper assesses evidence from field experiments for N deposition effects and thresholds for terrestrial plant diversity protection across a latitudinal range of main categories of ecosystems, from arctic and boreal systems to tropical forests. Current thinking on the mechanisms of N deposition effects on plant diversity, the global distribution of G200 ecoregions, and current and future (2030) estimates of atmospheric N-deposition rates are then used to identify the risks to plant diversity in all major ecosystem types now and in the future. This synthesis paper clearly shows that N accumulation is the main driver of changes to species composition across the whole range of different ecosystem types by driving the competitive interactions that lead to composition change and/or making conditions unfavorable for some species. Other effects such as direct toxicity of nitrogen gases and aerosols, long-term negative effects of increased ammonium and ammonia availability, soil-mediated effects of acidification, and secondary stress and disturbance are more ecosystem- and site-specific and often play a supporting role. N deposition effects in mediterranean ecosystems have now been identified, leading to a first estimate of an effect threshold. Importantly, ecosystems thought of as not N limited, such as tropical and subtropical systems, may be more vulnerable in the regeneration phase, in situations where heterogeneity in N availability is reduced by atmospheric N deposition, on sandy soils, or in montane areas. Critical loads are effect thresholds for N deposition, and the critical load concept has helped European governments make progress toward reducing N loads on sensitive ecosystems. More needs to be done in Europe and North America, especially for the more sensitive ecosystem types, including several ecosystems of high conservation importance. The results of this assessment show that the vulnerable regions outside Europe and North America which have not received enough attention are ecoregions in eastern and southern Asia (China, India), an important part of the mediterranean ecoregion (California, southern Europe), and in the coming decades several subtropical and tropical parts of Latin America and Africa. Reductions in plant diversity by increased atmospheric N deposition may be more widespread than first thought, and more targeted studies are required in low background areas, especially in the G200 ecoregions.