François-Nicolas Robinne

Bio: François-Nicolas Robinne is an academic researcher from University of Alberta. The author has contributed to research in topics: Water security & Water resources. The author has an hindex of 11, co-authored 21 publications receiving 441 citations.

The spatially varying influence of humans on fire probability in North America

Abstract: Humans affect fire regimes by providing ignition sources in some cases, suppressing wildfires in others, and altering natural vegetation in ways that may either promote or limit fire. In North America, several studies have evaluated the effects of society on fire activity; however, most studies have been regional or subcontinental in scope and used different data and methods, thereby making continent-wide comparisons difficult. We circumvent these challenges by investigating the broad-scale impact of humans on fire activity using parallel statistical models of fire probability from 1984 to 2014 as a function of climate, enduring features (topography and percent nonfuel), lightning, and three indices of human activity (population density, an integrated metric of human activity [Human Footprint Index], and a measure of remoteness [roadless volume]) across equally spaced regions of the United States and Canada. Through a statistical control approach, whereby we account for the effect of other explanatory variables, we found evidence of non-negligible human–wildfire association across the entire continent, even in the most sparsely populated areas. A surprisingly coherent negative relationship between fire activity and humans was observed across the United States and Canada: fire probability generally diminishes with increasing human influence. Intriguing exceptions to this relationship are the continent's least disturbed areas, where fewer humans equate to less fire. These remote areas, however, also often have lower lightning densities, leading us to believe that they may be ignition limited at the spatiotemporal scale of the study. Our results suggest that there are few purely natural fire regimes in North America today. Consequently, projections of future fire activity should consider human impacts on fire regimes to ensure sound adaptation and mitigation measures in fire-prone areas.

Scientists’ warning on wildfire — a Canadian perspective

Abstract: Recently, the World Scientists’ Warning to Humanity: a Second Notice was issued in response to ongoing and largely unabated environmental degradation due to anthropogenic activities. In the warning...

Wildfire‐mediated vegetation change in boreal forests of Alberta, Canada

Abstract: Climate-induced vegetation change may be delayed in the absence of disturbance catalysts. However, increases in wildfire activity may accelerate these transitions in many areas, including the western boreal region of Canada. To better understand factors influencing decadal-scale changes in upland boreal forest vegetation, we developed a hybrid modeling approach that constrains projections of climatedriven vegetation change based on topo-edaphic conditions coupled with weatherand fuel-based simulations of future wildfires using Burn-P3, a spatial fire simulation model. We evaluated eighteen scenarios based on all possible combinations of three fuel assumptions (static, fire-mediated, and climate-driven), two fire-regime assumptions (constrained and unconstrained), and three global climate models. We simulated scenarios of fire-mediated change in forest composition over the next century, concluding that, even under conservative assumptions about future fire regimes, wildfire activity could hasten the conversion of approximately half of Alberta’s upland mixedwood and conifer forest to more climatically suited deciduous woodland and grassland by 2100. When fire-regime parameter inputs (number of fire ignitions and duration of burning) were modified based on future fire weather projections, the simulated area burned was almost enough to facilitate a complete transition to climate-predicted vegetation types. However, when fire-regime parameters were held constant at their current values, the rate of increase in fire probability diminished, suggesting a negative feedback by which a short-term increase in less-flammable deciduous forest leads to a long-term reduction in area burned. Our spatially explicit simulations of fire-mediated vegetation change provide managers with scenarios that can be used to plan for a range of alternative land-

Classifying drivers of global forest loss

Abstract: Global maps of forest loss depict the scale and magnitude of forest disturbance, yet companies, governments, and nongovernmental organizations need to distinguish permanent conversion (ie, deforestation) from temporary loss from forestry or wildfire Using satellite imagery, we developed a forest loss classification model to determine a spatial attribution of forest disturbance to the dominant drivers of land cover and land use change over the period 2001 to 2015 Our results indicate that 27% of global forest loss can be attributed to deforestation through permanent land use change for commodity production The remaining areas maintained the same land use over 15 years; in those areas, loss was attributed to forestry (26%), shifting agriculture (24%), and wildfire (23%) Despite corporate commitments, the rate of commodity-driven deforestation has not declined To end deforestation, companies must eliminate 5 million hectares of conversion from supply chains each year

More Evidence Linking Arctic Amplification to Extreme Weather in Mid-Latitudes

Abstract: [1] Arctic amplification (AA) – the observed enhanced warming in high northern latitudes relative to the northern hemisphere – is evident in lower-tropospheric temperatures and in 1000-to-500 hPa thicknesses. Daily fields of 500 hPa heights from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Reanalysis are analyzed over N. America and the N. Atlantic to assess changes in north-south (Rossby) wave characteristics associated with AA and the relaxation of poleward thickness gradients. Two effects are identified that each contribute to a slower eastward progression of Rossby waves in the upper-level flow: 1) weakened zonal winds, and 2) increased wave amplitude. These effects are particularly evident in autumn and winter consistent with sea-ice loss, but are also apparent in summer, possibly related to earlier snow melt on high-latitude land. Slower progression of upper-level waves would cause associated weather patterns in mid-latitudes to be more persistent, which may lead to an increased probability of extreme weather events that result from prolonged conditions, such as drought, flooding, cold spells, and heat waves.

Global Multi-resolution Terrain Elevation Data 2010 (GMTED2010)

Abstract: For more information on the USGS—the Federal source for science about the Earth, its natural and living resources, natural hazards, and the environment, visit http://www.usgs.gov or call 1–888–ASK–USGS. For an overview of USGS information products, including maps, imagery, and publications, Any use of trade, product, or firm names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government. Although this report is in the public domain, permission must be secured from the individual copyright owners to reproduce any copyrighted materials contained within this report. 10. Diagram showing the GMTED2010 layer extents (minimum and maximum latitude and longitude) are a result of the coordinate system inherited from the 1-arc-second SRTM

Climate-induced variations in global wildfire danger from 1979-2013

Abstract: Climate strongly influences global wildfire activity, and recent wildfire surges may signal fire weather-induced pyrogeographic shifts. Here we use three daily global climate data sets and three fire danger indices to develop a simple annual metric of fire weather season length, and map spatio-temporal trends from 1979 to 2013. We show that fire weather seasons have lengthened across 29.6 million km2 (25.3%) of the Earth's vegetated surface, resulting in an 18.7% increase in global mean fire weather season length. We also show a doubling (108.1% increase) of global burnable area affected by long fire weather seasons (>1.0 σ above the historical mean) and an increased global frequency of long fire weather seasons across 62.4 million km2 (53.4%) during the second half of the study period. If these fire weather changes are coupled with ignition sources and available fuel, they could markedly impact global ecosystems, societies, economies and climate.