François Primeau

Bio: François Primeau is an academic researcher from University of California, Irvine. The author has contributed to research in topics: Ocean current & Biogeochemistry. The author has an hindex of 39, co-authored 84 publications receiving 4680 citations. Previous affiliations of François Primeau include University of California, Berkeley & Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution.

Reconstruction of the history of anthropogenic CO(2) concentrations in the ocean.

Abstract: The release of fossil fuel CO(2) to the atmosphere by human activity has been implicated as the predominant cause of recent global climate change. The ocean plays a crucial role in mitigating the effects of this perturbation to the climate system, sequestering 20 to 35 per cent of anthropogenic CO(2) emissions. Although much progress has been made in recent years in understanding and quantifying this sink, considerable uncertainties remain as to the distribution of anthropogenic CO(2) in the ocean, its rate of uptake over the industrial era, and the relative roles of the ocean and terrestrial biosphere in anthropogenic CO(2) sequestration. Here we address these questions by presenting an observationally based reconstruction of the spatially resolved, time-dependent history of anthropogenic carbon in the ocean over the industrial era. Our approach is based on the recognition that the transport of tracers in the ocean can be described by a Green's function, which we estimate from tracer data using a maximum entropy deconvolution technique. Our results indicate that ocean uptake of anthropogenic CO(2) has increased sharply since the 1950s, with a small decline in the rate of increase in the last few decades. We estimate the inventory and uptake rate of anthropogenic CO(2) in 2008 at 140 +/- 25 Pg C and 2.3 +/- 0.6 Pg C yr(-1), respectively. We find that the Southern Ocean is the primary conduit by which this CO(2) enters the ocean (contributing over 40 per cent of the anthropogenic CO(2) inventory in the ocean in 2008). Our results also suggest that the terrestrial biosphere was a source of CO(2) until the 1940s, subsequently turning into a sink. Taken over the entire industrial period, and accounting for uncertainties, we estimate that the terrestrial biosphere has been anywhere from neutral to a net source of CO(2), contributing up to half as much CO(2) as has been taken up by the ocean over the same period.

Strong latitudinal patterns in the elemental ratios of marine plankton and organic matter

Abstract: Nearly 75 years ago, Alfred C. Redfield observed a similarity between the elemental composition of marine plankton in the surface ocean and dissolved nutrients in the ocean interior 1 . This stoichiometry, referred to as the Redfield ratio, continues to be a central tenet in ocean biogeochemistry, and is used to infer a variety of ecosystem processes, such as phytoplankton productivity and rates of nitrogen fixation and loss 2‐4 . Model, field and laboratory studies have shown that different mechanisms can explain both constant and variable ratios of carbon to nitrogen and phosphorus among ocean plankton communities. The range of C/N/P ratios in the ocean, and their predictability, are the subject of much active research 5‐12 . Here we assess global patterns in the elemental composition of phytoplankton and particulate organic matter in the upper ocean, using published and unpublished observations of particulate phosphorus, nitrogen and carbon from a broad latitudinal range, supplemented with elemental data for surface plankton populations. We show that the elemental ratios of marine organic matter exhibit large spatial variations, with a global average that differs substantially from the canonical Redfield ratio. However, elemental ratios exhibit a clear latitudinal trend. Specifically, we observed a ratio of 195:28:1 in the warm nutrient-depleted low-latitude gyres, 137:18:1 in warm, nutrient-rich upwelling zones, and 78:13:1 in cold, nutrient-rich high-latitude regions. We suggest that the coupling between oceanic carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus cycles may vary systematically by ecosystem. A. C. Redfield first noted the similarity between the particulate nutrient ratios of plankton living in the surface ocean and that of dissolved nutrients in the deep ocean 1 . He predicted that deep-ocean nutrient ratios were controlled by the uniform nutrient requirements of sinking, and subsequently remineralized, surface plankton. This concept remains a central tenet in our understanding of ocean biogeochemistry. However, model, field and laboratory studies have shown that different mechanisms can explain both constant and variable C/N/P ratios among ocean plankton communities, but the range of ratios in the ocean and the relative importance of each mechanism are subject to much research 510,13,14 . Despite this continued lack of understanding of global patterns, the N/P ratio is routinely used to draw conclusions about ocean ecosystem processes, particularly related to nutrient limitation of phytoplankton production and the net magnitude of N2 fixation and denitrification. 2,3 . Alas, these ratios are of critical importance to study, model and predict ocean biogeochemical cycles. Equally important is the C/P ratio of ocean plankton

The impact of remineralization depth on the air–sea carbon balance

Abstract: The depth at which particulate organic carbon sinking from the surface ocean is converted back to carbon dioxide is known as the remineralization depth. A three-dimensional global ocean biogeochemistry model suggests that a modest change in remineralization depth can have a substantial impact on atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. As particulate organic carbon rains down from the surface ocean it is respired back to carbon dioxide and released into the ocean’s interior. The depth at which this sinking carbon is converted back to carbon dioxide—known as the remineralization depth—depends on the balance between particle sinking speeds and their rate of decay. A host of climate-sensitive factors can affect this balance, including temperature1, oxygen concentration2, stratification, community composition3,4 and the mineral content of the sinking particles5. Here we use a three-dimensional global ocean biogeochemistry model to show that a modest change in remineralization depth can have a substantial impact on atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. For example, when the depth at which 63% of sinking carbon is respired increases by 24 m globally, atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations fall by 10–27 ppm. This reduction in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration results from the redistribution of remineralized carbon from intermediate waters to bottom waters. As a consequence of the reduced concentration of respired carbon in upper ocean waters, atmospheric carbon dioxide is preferentially stored in newly formed North Atlantic Deep Water. We suggest that atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations are highly sensitive to the potential changes in remineralization depth that may be caused by climate change.

Sustained climate warming drives declining marine biological productivity.

Abstract: Climate change projections to the year 2100 may miss physical-biogeochemical feedbacks that emerge later from the cumulative effects of climate warming. In a coupled climate simulation to the year 2300, the westerly winds strengthen and shift poleward, surface waters warm, and sea ice disappears, leading to intense nutrient trapping in the Southern Ocean. The trapping drives a global-scale nutrient redistribution, with net transfer to the deep ocean. Ensuing surface nutrient reductions north of 30°S drive steady declines in primary production and carbon export (decreases of 24 and 41%, respectively, by 2300). Potential fishery yields, constrained by lower–trophic-level productivity, decrease by more than 20% globally and by nearly 60% in the North Atlantic. Continued high levels of greenhouse gas emissions could suppress marine biological productivity for a millennium.

Recent increase in oceanic carbon uptake driven by weaker upper-ocean overturning

Abstract: The ocean is the largest sink for anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2), having absorbed roughly 40 per cent of CO2 emissions since the beginning of the industrial era. Recent data show that oceanic CO2 uptake rates have been growing over the past decade, reversing a trend of stagnant or declining carbon uptake during the 1990s. Here we show that ocean circulation variability is the primary driver of these changes in oceanic CO2 uptake over the past several decades. We use a global inverse model to quantify the mean ocean circulation during the 1980s, 1990s and 2000s, and then estimate the impact of decadal circulation changes on the oceanic CO2 sink using a carbon cycling model. We find that during the 1990s an enhanced upper-ocean overturning circulation drove increased outgassing of natural CO2, thus weakening the global CO2 sink. This trend reversed during the 2000s as the overturning circulation weakened. Continued weakening of the upper-ocean overturning is likely to strengthen the CO2 sink in the near future by trapping natural CO2 in the deep ocean, but ultimately may limit oceanic uptake of anthropogenic CO2.

A Large and Persistent Carbon Sink in the World’s Forests

Abstract: The terrestrial carbon sink has been large in recent decades, but its size and location remain uncertain. Using forest inventory data and long-term ecosystem carbon studies, we estimate a total forest sink of 2.4 ± 0.4 petagrams of carbon per year (Pg C year–1) globally for 1990 to 2007. We also estimate a source of 1.3 ± 0.7 Pg C year–1 from tropical land-use change, consisting of a gross tropical deforestation emission of 2.9 ± 0.5 Pg C year–1 partially compensated by a carbon sink in tropical forest regrowth of 1.6 ± 0.5 Pg C year–1. Together, the fluxes comprise a net global forest sink of 1.1 ± 0.8 Pg C year–1, with tropical estimates having the largest uncertainties. Our total forest sink estimate is equivalent in magnitude to the terrestrial sink deduced from fossil fuel emissions and land-use change sources minus ocean and atmospheric sinks.

The IntCal20 Northern Hemisphere Radiocarbon Age Calibration Curve (0-55 cal kBP)

Abstract: Radiocarbon (14C) ages cannot provide absolutely dated chronologies for archaeological or paleoenvironmental studies directly but must be converted to calendar age equivalents using a calibration curve compensating for fluctuations in atmospheric 14C concentration. Although calibration curves are constructed from independently dated archives, they invariably require revision as new data become available and our understanding of the Earth system improves. In this volume the international 14C calibration curves for both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, as well as for the ocean surface layer, have been updated to include a wealth of new data and extended to 55,000 cal BP. Based on tree rings, IntCal20 now extends as a fully atmospheric record to ca. 13,900 cal BP. For the older part of the timescale, IntCal20 comprises statistically integrated evidence from floating tree-ring chronologies, lacustrine and marine sediments, speleothems, and corals. We utilized improved evaluation of the timescales and location variable 14C offsets from the atmosphere (reservoir age, dead carbon fraction) for each dataset. New statistical methods have refined the structure of the calibration curves while maintaining a robust treatment of uncertainties in the 14C ages, the calendar ages and other corrections. The inclusion of modeled marine reservoir ages derived from a three-dimensional ocean circulation model has allowed us to apply more appropriate reservoir corrections to the marine 14C data rather than the previous use of constant regional offsets from the atmosphere. Here we provide an overview of the new and revised datasets and the associated methods used for the construction of the IntCal20 curve and explore potential regional offsets for tree-ring data. We discuss the main differences with respect to the previous calibration curve, IntCal13, and some of the implications for archaeology and geosciences ranging from the recent past to the time of the extinction of the Neanderthals.

Carbon capture and storage (CCS): the way forward

Abstract: Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is broadly recognised as having the potential to play a key role in meeting climate change targets, delivering low carbon heat and power, decarbonising industry and, more recently, its ability to facilitate the net removal of CO2 from the atmosphere. However, despite this broad consensus and its technical maturity, CCS has not yet been deployed on a scale commensurate with the ambitions articulated a decade ago. Thus, in this paper we review the current state-of-the-art of CO2 capture, transport, utilisation and storage from a multi-scale perspective, moving from the global to molecular scales. In light of the COP21 commitments to limit warming to less than 2 °C, we extend the remit of this study to include the key negative emissions technologies (NETs) of bioenergy with CCS (BECCS), and direct air capture (DAC). Cognisant of the non-technical barriers to deploying CCS, we reflect on recent experience from the UK's CCS commercialisation programme and consider the commercial and political barriers to the large-scale deployment of CCS. In all areas, we focus on identifying and clearly articulating the key research challenges that could usefully be addressed in the coming decade.

Carbon and Other Biogeochemical Cycles

Abstract: For base year 2010, anthropogenic activities created ~210 (190 to 230) TgN of reactive nitrogen Nr from N2. This human-caused creation of reactive nitrogen in 2010 is at least 2 times larger than the rate of natural terrestrial creation of ~58 TgN (50 to 100 TgN yr−1) (Table 6.9, Section 1a). Note that the estimate of natural terrestrial biological fixation (58 TgN yr−1) is lower than former estimates (100 TgN yr−1, Galloway et al., 2004), but the ranges overlap, 50 to 100 TgN yr−1 vs. 90 to 120 TgN yr−1, respectively). Of this created reactive nitrogen, NOx and NH3 emissions from anthropogenic sources are about fourfold greater than natural emissions (Table 6.9, Section 1b). A greater portion of the NH3 emissions is deposited to the continents rather than to the oceans, relative to the deposition of NOy, due to the longer atmospheric residence time of the latter. These deposition estimates are lower limits, as they do not include organic nitrogen species. New model and measurement information (Kanakidou et al., 2012) suggests that incomplete inclusion of emissions and atmospheric chemistry of reduced and oxidized organic nitrogen components in current models may lead to systematic underestimates of total global reactive nitrogen deposition by up to 35% (Table 6.9, Section 1c). Discharge of reactive nitrogen to the coastal oceans is ~45 TgN yr−1 (Table 6.9, Section 1d). Denitrification converts Nr back to atmospheric N2. The current estimate for the production of atmospheric N2 is 110 TgN yr−1 (Bouwman et al., 2013).