Showing papers by "Freddie Bray published in 2016"

Cancer statistics in China, 2015

Abstract: With increasing incidence and mortality, cancer is the leading cause of death in China and is a major public health problem. Because of China's massive population (1.37 billion), previous national incidence and mortality estimates have been limited to small samples of the population using data from the 1990s or based on a specific year. With high-quality data from an additional number of population-based registries now available through the National Central Cancer Registry of China, the authors analyzed data from 72 local, population-based cancer registries (2009-2011), representing 6.5% of the population, to estimate the number of new cases and cancer deaths for 2015. Data from 22 registries were used for trend analyses (2000-2011). The results indicated that an estimated 4292,000 new cancer cases and 2814,000 cancer deaths would occur in China in 2015, with lung cancer being the most common incident cancer and the leading cause of cancer death. Stomach, esophageal, and liver cancers were also commonly diagnosed and were identified as leading causes of cancer death. Residents of rural areas had significantly higher age-standardized (Segi population) incidence and mortality rates for all cancers combined than urban residents (213.6 per 100,000 vs 191.5 per 100,000 for incidence; 149.0 per 100,000 vs 109.5 per 100,000 for mortality, respectively). For all cancers combined, the incidence rates were stable during 2000 through 2011 for males (+0.2% per year; P = .1), whereas they increased significantly (+2.2% per year; P < .05) among females. In contrast, the mortality rates since 2006 have decreased significantly for both males (-1.4% per year; P < .05) and females (-1.1% per year; P < .05). Many of the estimated cancer cases and deaths can be prevented through reducing the prevalence of risk factors, while increasing the effectiveness of clinical care delivery, particularly for those living in rural areas and in disadvantaged populations.

Worldwide Thyroid-Cancer Epidemic? The Increasing Impact of Overdiagnosis

Abstract: Dramatic increases have been seen over recent decades in the reported incidence of thyroid cancer, but owing to new modes of screening, hundreds of thousands of cases may be overdiagnoses — diagnosis of tumors that would not, if left alone, result in symptoms or death.

More deaths from pancreatic cancer than breast cancer in the EU by 2017.

Abstract: Introduction: Pancreatic cancer currently ranks below female breast cancer in terms of the number of deaths in both males and females in the EU. While breast cancer mortality rates have been declin...

International trends in liver cancer incidence, overall and by histologic subtype, 1978-2007.

Abstract: Primary liver cancer, the most common histologic types of which are hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC), is the second leading cause of cancer death worldwide. While rising incidence of liver cancer in low-risk areas and decreasing incidence in some high-risk areas has been reported, trends have not been thoroughly explored by country or by histologic type. We examined liver cancer incidence overall and by histology by calendar time and birth cohort for selected countries between 1978 and 2007. For each successive 5-year period, age-standardized incidence rates were calculated from volumes V-IX of the Cancer Incidence in Five Continents electronic database (CI5plus) and the newly released CI5X (volume X) database. Wide global variations persist in liver cancer incidence. Rates of liver cancer remain highest in Asian countries, specifically Eastern and South-Eastern Asian countries. While rates in most of these high-risk countries have been decreasing in recent years, rates in India and several low-risk countries of Africa, Europe, the Americas, and Oceania have been on the rise. Liver cancer rates by histologic type tend to convey a similar temporal profile. However, in Thailand, France, and Italy, ICC rates have increased while HCC rates have declined. We expect rates in high-risk countries to continue to decrease, as the population seroprevalence of hepatitis B virus (HBV) continues to decline. In low-risk countries, targeted screening and treatment of the hepatitis C virus (HCV), treatment of diabetes and primary prevention of obesity, will be key in reducing future liver cancer incidence.

Prostate cancer incidence in 43 populations worldwide: An analysis of time trends overall and by age group

Abstract: Prostate cancer is a significant public health burden and a major cause of morbidity and mortality among men worldwide. Analyzing geographic patterns and temporal trends may help identify high-risk populations, suggest the degree of PSA testing, and provide clues to etiology. We used incidence data available from the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) and certain cancer registries for 43 populations across five continents during a median period of 24 years. Trends in overall prostate cancer rates showed five distinct patterns ranging from generally monotonic increases to peaking of rates followed by declines, which coincide somewhat with changes in the prevalence of PSA testing. Trends in age-specific rates generally mirrored those in the overall rates, with several notable exceptions. For populations where overall rates increased rapidly and then peaked, exemplified in North America and Oceania, the highest incidence tended to be most pronounced and occurred during earlier calendar years among older men compared with younger ones. For populations with almost continual increases in overall rates, exemplified in Eastern Europe and Asia, peaks were evident among men aged ≥ 75 years in many instances. Rates for ages 45-54 years did not clearly stabilize or decline in the majority of studied populations. Global geographic variation remained substantial for both overall and age-specific incidence rates regardless of levels of PSA testing, with the lowest rates consistently in Asia. Explanations for the persistent geographic differences and the continuing increases of especially early-onset prostate cancer remain unclear.

International trends in anal cancer incidence rates.

Abstract: Background Previous studies have reported rapid increases in anal cancer incidence rates in seven high-income countries in North America, Europe and Oceania There is very limited information on whether this pattern is replicated in other parts of the world In this study, we examine recent trends in anal cancer incidence in 18 countries worldwide Methods We calculated age-standardized incidence rates for anal squamous cell carcinoma (ASCC) and anal adenocarcinoma (AAC) for a minimum of 13 years through to 2007, using data from the International Agency for Research on Cancer's Cancer Incidence in Five Continents series, and applied joinpoint regression models to assess changes in incidence rates We also conducted an extended analysis of the data from the USA through to 2012 Results ASCC was the main histological subtype in most of the countries considered in this analysis The incidence of ASCC increased in both men and women in several high-income countries, including Australia, Canada, Denmark, France, Italy, Netherlands, the UK and the USA, whereas it increased only in women in Colombia, Estonia, the Russian Federation, Slovakia and Switzerland Conversely, there was little change in the incidence of ASCC in either men or women in India, Israel, Japan, Singapore and Spain The incidence rates of AAC decreased or were stable in most populations Conclusions The ASCC incidence rates increased in both men and women or in women in all countries included in this study, except Asian countries and Spain, where the rates remained unchanged Population-based preventive measures, including human papillomavirus vaccination and advocacy for safe sexual behaviours, may contribute to curbing the surging burden of the disease

A global view on cancer incidence and national levels of the human development index.

Abstract: Socioeconomic factors are associated with cancer incidence through complex and variable pathways. We assessed cancer incidence for all cancers combined and 27 major types according to national human development levels. Using GLOBOCAN data for 184 countries, age-standardized incidence rates (ASRs) were assessed by four levels (low, medium, high, very high) of the Human Development Index (HDI), a composite index of life expectancy, education, and gross national income. A strong positive relationship between overall cancer incidence and HDI level was observed. When comparing the ASR in very high HDI regions with that in low HDI regions, we observed a positive association ranging from 2 to 14 and 2 to 11 times higher in males and females, respectively, depending on the cancer type. Positive dose–response relationships between the ASR and HDI level were observed in both sexes for the following cancer types: lung, pancreas, leukemia, gallbladder, colorectum, brain/nervous system, kidney, multiple myeloma, and thyroid. Positive associations were also observed for testicular, bladder, lip/oral cavity, and other pharyngeal cancers, Hodgkin lymphoma, and melanoma of the skin in males, and corpus uteri, breast, and ovarian cancers and non-Hodgkin lymphoma in females. A negative dose–response relationship was observed for cervical and other pharyngeal cancers and Kaposi sarcoma in females. Although the relationship between incidence and the HDI remained when assessed at the country-specific level, variations in risk within HDI levels were also observed. We highlight positive and negative associations between incidence and human development for most cancers, which will aid the planning of cancer control priorities among countries undergoing human development transitions.

Cancers of the brain and CNS: Global patterns and trends in incidence

Abstract: Background Cancers of the brain and CNS constitute a group of rare and heterogeneous tumors. Increasing incidence in Western populations has been linked to improvements in diagnostic technology, although interpretation is hampered by changes in diagnosis and reporting. The present study examines geographic and temporal variations in incidence rates of brain and CNS cancers worldwide. Methods Data from successive volumes of Cancer Incidence in Five Continents were used, including 96 registries in 39 countries. We used Joinpoint regression to estimate the average annual percentage change and its 95% CI. Results Globally, a large variability in the magnitude of the diagnosis of new cases of brain and CNS cancer was found, with a 5-fold difference between the highest rates (mainly in Europe) and the lowest (mainly in Asia). Increasing rates of brain and CNS cancer were found in South America, namely in Ecuador, Brazil, and Colombia; in eastern Europe (Czech Republic and Russia), in southern Europe (Slovenia), and in the 3 Baltic countries. Trends were similar between sexes, although decreasing trends in men and women were seen in Japan and New Zealand. Conclusions Important regional variations in brain and CNS cancers exist, and given an increasing burden and risk worldwide, there is a need for further etiological research that focuses on the elucidation of environmental risk. The trends are sufficiently complex and diffuse, however, to warrant a cautious approach to interpretation.

Cancer patterns, trends and projections in Latin America and the Caribbean: a global context

Abstract: Objective . To develop a situation analysis encompassing the patterns and trends in cancer incidence and mortality in South and Central America and the Caribbean, with comparisons globally and with selected external countries. Materials and methods . Data on cancer incidence and mortality rates for 31 countries were obtained from the 2012 GLOBOCAN database. Incidence and mortality trends for selected countries were analysed with data from the Cancer Incidence in Five Continents (CI5) series and the WHO Mortality Database, respectively. Results . In 2012, almost 1.1 million new cancer cases were estimated annually, with important variations in rates across countries. The most common cancer types were breast, prostate, colorectum and lung cancer; stomach and cervical cancer ranked high in less developed countries. Increasing trends were observed in prostate, breast and colorectal cancer; lung cancer mortality trends diverged among males and females, while cervix cancer incidence and stomach cancer mortality uniformly decreased. A 66% increase in cancer cases in the region by 2030 is projected based on population aging and growth. Conclusions . Cancer patterns and trends reflect the significant sociodemographic changes in the region: the growing burden imposes great challenges to national health care systems to implement cancer control actions, while improving cancer surveillance to effectively measure the response. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.21149/spm.v58i2.7779

Cancer prevention as part of precision medicine: 'plenty to be done'.

Abstract: Cancer burden worldwide is projected to rise from 14 million new cases in 2012 to 24 million in 2035. Although the greatest increases will be in developing countries, where cancer services are already hard pressed, even the richest nations will struggle to meet demands of increasing patient numbers and spiralling treatment costs. No country can treat its way out of the cancer problem. Consequently, cancer control must combine improvements in treatment with greater emphasis on prevention and early detection. Cancer prevention is founded on describing the burden of cancer, identifying the causes and evaluating and implementing preventive interventions. Around 40-50% of cancers could be prevented if current knowledge about risk factors was translated into effective public health strategies. The benefits of prevention are attested to by major successes, for example, in tobacco control, vaccination against oncogenic viruses, reduced exposure to environmental and occupational carcinogens, and screening. Progress is still needed in areas such as weight control and physical activity. Fresh impetus for prevention and early detection will come through interdisciplinary approaches, encompassing knowledge and tools from advances in cancer biology. Examples include mutation profiles giving clues about aetiology and biomarkers for early detection, to stratify individuals for screening or for prognosis. However, cancer prevention requires a broad perspective stretching from the submicroscopic to the macropolitical, recognizing the importance of molecular profiling and multisectoral engagement across urban planning, transport, environment, agriculture, economics, etc., and applying interventions that may just as easily rely on a legislative measure as on a molecule.

Global Access to Radiotherapy Services: Have We Made Progress During the Past Decade?

Abstract: PurposeThe global incidence of cancer is rising, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. Radiotherapy is an important cancer treatment in the curative and palliative setting. We aimed to estimate the global demand for and supply of radiotherapy megavoltage machines (MVMs) and assess the changes in supply and demand during the past decade.Materials and MethodsCancer incidences for 27 cancer types in 184 countries were extracted from the International Agency for Research on Cancer GLOBOCAN database. The Collaboration for Cancer Outcomes Research and Evaluation radiotherapy utilization rate (RTU) model was used to estimate the number of patients in each country with an indication for radiotherapy for each cancer type and estimate the demand for MVMs. The radiotherapy supply data were accessed from Directory of Radiotherapy Centres database maintained by the International Atomic Energy Agency.ResultsRTU varied by country, from 32% in Mongolia to 59% in Comoros. The average optimal world RTU was 50%,...

An assessment of GLOBOCAN methods for deriving national estimates of cancer incidence.

Abstract: Objective To assess the validity of the GLOBOCAN methods for deriving national estimates of cancer incidence.

Preventable fractions of cervical cancer via effective screening in six Baltic, central, and eastern European countries 2017–40: a population-based study

Abstract: Summary Background Cervical cancer incidence remains high in several Baltic, central, and eastern European (BCEE) countries, mainly as a result of a historical absence of effective screening programmes. As a catalyst for action, we aimed to estimate the number of women who could be spared from cervical cancer across six countries in the region during the next 25 years, if effective screening interventions were introduced. Methods In this population-based study, we applied age–period–cohort models with spline functions within a Bayesian framework to incidence data from six BCEE countries (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Belarus, Bulgaria, and Russia) to develop projections of the future number of new cases of cervical cancer from 2017 to 2040 based on two future scenarios: continued absence of screening (scenario A) versus the introduction of effective screening from 2017 onwards (scenario B). The timespan of available data varied from 16 years in Bulgaria to 40 years in Estonia. Projected rates up to 2040 were obtained in scenario A by extrapolating cohort-specific trends, a marker of changing risk of human papillomavirus (HPV) infection, assuming a continued absence of effective screening in future years. Scenario B added the effect of gradual introduction of screening in each country, under the assumption period effects would be equivalent to the decreasing trend by calendar year seen in Denmark (our comparator country) since the progressive regional introduction of screening from the late 1960s. Findings According to scenario A, projected incidence rates will continue to increase substantially in many BCEE countries. Very high age-standardised rates of cervical cancer are predicted in Lithuania, Latvia, Belarus, and Estonia (up to 88 cases per 100 000). According to scenario B, the beneficial effects of effective screening will increase progressively over time, leading to a 50–60% reduction of the projected incidence rates by around 2040, resulting in the prevention of cervical cancer in 1500 women in Estonia and more than 150 000 women in Russia. The immediate launch of effective screening programmes could prevent almost 180 000 new cervical cancer diagnoses in a 25-year period in the six BCEE countries studied. Interpretation Based on our findings, there is a clear need to begin cervical screening in these six countries as soon as possible to reduce the high and increasing incidence of cervical cancer over the next decades. Funding None.

Population Attributable and Preventable Fractions: Cancer Risk Factor Surveillance, and Cancer Policy Projection

Abstract: The proportions of new cancer cases and deaths that are caused by exposure to risk factors and that could be prevented are key statistics for public health policy and planning. This paper summarizes the methodologies for estimating, challenges in the analysis of, and utility of, population attributable and preventable fractions for cancers caused by major risk factors such as tobacco smoking, dietary factors, high body fat, physical inactivity, alcohol consumption, infectious agents, occupational exposure, air pollution, sun exposure, and insufficient breastfeeding. For population attributable and preventable fractions, evidence of a causal relationship between a risk factor and cancer, outcome (such as incidence and mortality), exposure distribution, relative risk, theoretical-minimum-risk, and counterfactual scenarios need to be clearly defined and congruent. Despite limitations of the methodology and the data used for estimations, the population attributable and preventable fractions are a useful tool for public health policy and planning.

Overweight duration in older adults and cancer risk: a study of cohorts in Europe and the United States.

Abstract: Recent studies have shown that cancer risk related to overweight and obesity is mediated by time and might be better approximated by using life years lived with excess weight. In this study we aimed to assess the impact of overweight duration and intensity in older adults on the risk of developing different forms of cancer. Study participants from seven European and one US cohort study with two or more weight assessments during follow-up were included (n = 329,576). Trajectories of body mass index (BMI) across ages were estimated using a quadratic growth model; overweight duration (BMI ≥ 25) and cumulative weighted overweight years were calculated. In multivariate Cox models and random effects analyses, a longer duration of overweight was significantly associated with the incidence of obesity-related cancer [overall hazard ratio (HR) per 10-year increment: 1.36; 95 % CI 1.12–1.60], but also increased the risk of postmenopausal breast and colorectal cancer. Additionally accounting for the degree of overweight further increased the risk of obesity-related cancer. Risks associated with a longer overweight duration were higher in men than in women and were attenuated by smoking. For postmenopausal breast cancer, increased risks were confined to women who never used hormone therapy. Overall, 8.4 % of all obesity-related cancers could be attributed to overweight at any age. These findings provide further insights into the role of overweight duration in the etiology of cancer and indicate that weight control is relevant at all ages. This knowledge is vital for the development of effective and targeted cancer prevention strategies.

Regional variations in cancer survival: Impact of tumour stage, socioeconomic status, comorbidity, and type of treatment in Norway

Abstract: Cancer survival varies by place of residence, but it remains uncertain whether this reflects differences in tumour, patient and treatment characteristics (including tumour stage, indicators of socioeconomic status (SES), comorbidity and information on received surgery and radiotherapy) or possibly regional differences in the quality of delivered health care. National population-based data from the Cancer Registry of Norway were used to identify cancer patients diagnosed in 2002-2011 (n = 258,675). We investigated survival from any type of cancer (all cancer sites combined), as well as for the six most common cancers. The effect of adjusting for prognostic factors on regional variations in cancer survival was examined by calculating the mean deviation, defined by the mean absolute deviation of the relative excess risks across health services regions. For prostate cancer, the mean deviation across regions was 1.78 when adjusting for age and sex only, but decreased to 1.27 after further adjustment for tumour stage. For breast cancer, the corresponding mean deviations were 1.34 and 1.27. Additional adjustment for other prognostic factors did not materially change the regional variation in any of the other sites. Adjustment for tumour stage explained most of the regional variations in prostate cancer survival, but had little impact for other sites. Unexplained regional variations after adjusting for tumour stage, SES indicators, comorbidity and type of treatment in Norway may be related to regional inequalities in the quality of cancer care.

Place of birth and risk of gallbladder cancer in India.

Abstract: Context: Within India, the incidence of gallbladder cancer (GBC) is characterized by marked geographical variation; however, the reasons for these differences are unclear. AIMS: To evaluate the role of place of birth, length of residence, and effect of migration from high- to low-risk region on GBC development. Settings and Design: Population-based cancer registries (PBCRs); case–control study. Subjects and Methods: Data of PBCRs were used to demonstrate geographical variation in GBC incidence rates. A case–control study data examined the role of birth place, residence length, and effect of migration in etiology of GBC. Statistical Analysis: Rate ratios for different PBCRs were estimated using Chennai Cancer Registry as the reference population. Odds ratios (ORs) for developing GBC in a high-risk region compared to a low-risk region and associated 95% confidence interval (CI) were estimated through unconditional logistic regression models using case–control study. Results: GBC shows marked variation in incidence with risk highest in Northeast regions and lowest in South India. OR of 4.82 (95% CI: 3.87–5.99) was observed for developing GBC for individuals born in a high-risk region compared to those born in a low-risk region after adjusting for confounders. A dose–response relationship with increased risk with increased length of residence in a high-risk region was observed (OR lifetime 5.58 [95% CI: 4.42–7.05]; Ptrend ≤ 0.001). The risk persisted even if study participant migrated from high- to low-risk region (OR = 1.36; 95% CI: 1.02–1.82). Conclusions: The present study signifies the importance of place of birth, length of stay, and effect of migration from high- to low-risk region in the development of GBC. The data indicate role of environmental and genetic factors in etiology of disease.

Inequalities in cancer incidence and mortality across medium to highly developed countries in the twenty-first century.

Abstract: Purpose Inequalities in the burden of cancer have been well documented, and a variety of measures exist to analyse disease disparities. While previous studies have focused on inequalities within countries, the aim of the present study was to quantify existing inequalities in cancer incidence and mortality between countries.

The Evolving Scale and Profile of Cancer Worldwide: Much Ado About Everything.

Abstract: Today, cancer is responsible for one in three premature deaths from noncommunicable diseases worldwide, and the number of annual cancer diagnoses will rise to well over 20 million by the year 2030. That cancer is of profound importance to future global health reflects both recent gains in human development as well as mortality transitions that are centuries old. Still, cancer is complex, and the extensive geographical and temporal heterogeneity alerts us to the need for targeted, local approaches to cancer control. The study of trends in specific cancer types remains essential in monitoring and evaluating such strategies and as a descriptive tool for hypothesizing possible contributory factors. Of greatest necessity is an expansion of the availability of high-quality data. To improve the limited cancer incidence data available in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC), the Global Initiative for Cancer Registry Development (http://gicr.iarc.fr) is an international partnership supporting countries to redraw the surveillance map.