For the tropical Pacific and Atlantic oceans, internal modes of variability that lead to climatic oscillations have been recognized1,2, but in the Indian Ocean region a similar ocean–atmosphere interaction causing interannual climate variability has not yet been found3. Here we report an analysis of observational data over the past 40 years, showing a dipole mode in the Indian Ocean: a pattern of internal variability with anomalously low sea surface temperatures off Sumatra and high sea surface temperatures in the western Indian Ocean, with accompanying wind and precipitation anomalies. The spatio-temporal links between sea surface temperatures and winds reveal a strong coupling through the precipitation field and ocean dynamics. This air–sea interaction process is unique and inherent in the Indian Ocean, and is shown to be independent of the El Nino/Southern Oscillation. The discovery of this dipole mode that accounts for about 12% of the sea surface temperature variability in the Indian Ocean—and, in its active years, also causes severe rainfall in eastern Africa and droughts in Indonesia—brightens the prospects for a long-term forecast of rainfall anomalies in the affected countries.

A Dipole Mode in the Tropical Indian Ocean

[1] A new 2° resolution global climatology of the mixed layer depth (MLD) based on individual profiles is constructed. Previous global climatologies have been based on temperature or density-gridded climatologies. The criterion selected is a threshold value of temperature or density from a near-surface value at 10 m depth (ΔT = 0.2°C or Δσθ = 0.03 kg m−3). A validation of the temperature criterion on moored time series data shows that the method is successful at following the base of the mixed layer. In particular, the first spring restratification is better captured than with a more commonly used larger criteria. In addition, we show that for a given 0.2°C criterion, the MLD estimated from averaged profiles results in a shallow bias of 25% compared to the MLD estimated from individual profiles. A new global seasonal estimation of barrier layer thickness is also provided. An interesting result is the prevalence in mid- and high-latitude winter hemispheres of vertically density-compensated layers, creating an isopycnal but not mixed layer. Consequently, we propose an optimal estimate of MLD based on both temperature and density data. An independent validation of the maximum annual MLD with oxygen data shows that this oxygen estimate may be biased in regions of Ekman pumping or strong biological activity. Significant differences are shown compared to previous climatologies. The timing of the seasonal cycle of the mixed layer is shifted earlier in the year, and the maximum MLD captures finer structures and is shallower. These results are discussed in light of the different approaches and the choice of criterion.

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Mixed layer depth over the global ocean: An examination of profile data and a profile-based climatology

This study focuses on the improved estimation of mesoscale surface ocean circulation obtained by merging TOPEX/Poseidon (T/P) and ERS-1 and -2 altimeter measurements between October 1992 and May 1998. Once carefully intercalibrated and homogenized, these data are merged through an advanced global objective analysis method that allows us to correct for residual long wavelength errors and uses realistic correlation scales of ocean dynamics. The high-resolution (0.25°×0.25°) merged T/P+ERS-1 and -2 sea level anomaly maps provide more homogeneous and reduced mapping errors than either individual data set and more realistic sea level and geostrophic velocity statistics than T/P data alone. Furthermore, the merged T/P+ERS-1 and -2 maps yield eddy kinetic energy (EKE) levels 30% higher than maps of T/P alone. They also permit realistic global estimates of east and north components of EKE and their seasonal variations, to study EKE sources better. A comparison of velocity statistics with World Ocean Circulation Experiment surface drifters in the North Atlantic shows very good agreement. Comparison with contemporary current meter data in various oceanic regimes also produces comparable levels of energy and similar ratios of northward and eastward energy, showing that the maps are suitable to studying anisotropy. The T/P + ERS zonal and meridional components of the mapped currents usually present comparable rms variability, even though the variability in the Atlantic is more isotropic than that in the Pacific, which exhibits strong zonal changes. The EKE map presents a very detailed description, presumably never before achieved at a global scale. Pronounced seasonal changes of the EKE are found in many regions, notably the northeastern Pacific, the northeastern and northwestern Atlantic, the tropical oceans, and the zonally extended bands centered near 20°S in the Indian and western Pacific Oceans and at 20°N in the northwestern Pacific.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/2000JC900063

Global high-resolution mapping of ocean circulation from TOPEX/Poseidon and ERS-1 and -2

Significant climate anomalies persist through the summer (June-August) after El Nino dissipates in spring over the equatorial Pacific. They include the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) sea surface temperature (SST) warming, increased tropical tropospheric temperature, an anomalous anticyclone over the subtropical northwest Pacific, and increased mei-yu-baiu rainfall over East Asia. The cause of these lingering El Nino effects during summer is investigated using observations and an atmospheric general circulation model (GCM). The results herein indicate that the TIO warming acts like a capacitor anchoring atmospheric anomalies over the Indo-western Pacific Oceans. It causes tropospheric temperature to increase by a moist-adiabatic adjustment in deep convection, emanating a baroclinic Kelvin wave into the Pacific. In the northwest Pacific, this equatorial Kelvin wave induces northeasterly surface wind anomalies, and the resultant divergence in the subtropics triggers suppressed convection and the anomalous anticyclone. The GCM results support this Kelvin wave-induced Ekman divergence mechanism. In response to a prescribed SST increase over the TIO, the model simulates the Kelvin wave with low pressure on the equator as well as suppressed convection and the anomalous anticyclone over the subtropical northwest Pacific. An additional experiment further indicates that the north Indian Ocean warming is most important for the Kelvin wave and northwest Pacific anticyclone, a result corroborated by observations. These results have important implications for the predictability of Indo-western Pacific summer climate: the spatial distribution and magnitude of the TIO warming, rather than simply whether there is an El Nino in the preceding winter, affect summer climate anomalies over the Indo-western Pacific and East Asia.

/pdf/indian-ocean-capacitor-effect-on-indo-western-pacific-6p36vq84fo.pdf

Indian Ocean Capacitor Effect on Indo–Western Pacific Climate during the Summer following El Niño

Atmospheric and Oceanic Fluid Dynamics

The monsoon circulation of the Indian Ocean

In recent years, the Indian Ocean (IO) has been discovered to have a much larger impact on climate variability than previously thought This paper reviews climate phenomena and processes in which the IO is, or appears to be, actively involved We begin with an update of the IO mean circulation and monsoon system It is followed by reviews of ocean/atmosphere phenomenon at intraseasonal, interannual, and longer time scales Much of our review addresses the two important types of interannual variability in the IO, El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the recently identified Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) IOD events are often triggered by ENSO but can also occur independently, subject to eastern tropical preconditioning Over the past decades, IO sea surface temperatures and heat content have been increasing, and model studies suggest significant roles of decadal trends in both the Walker circulation and the Southern Annular Mode Prediction of IO climate variability is still at the experimental stage, with varied success Essential requirements for better predictions are improved models and enhanced observations

Indian Ocean circulation and climate variability

We review what is known about the convective process in the open ocean, in which the properties of large volumes of water are changed by intermittent, deep-reaching convection, triggered by winter storms. Observational, laboratory, and modeling studies reveal a fascinating and complex interplay of convective and geostrophic scales, the large-scale circulation of the ocean, and the prevailing meteorology. Two aspects make ocean convection interesting from a theoretical point of view. First, the timescales of the convective process in the ocean are sufficiently long that it may be modified by the Earth's rotation; second, the convective process is localized in space so that vertical buoyancy transfer by upright convection can give way to slantwise transfer by baroclinic instability. Moreover, the convective and geostrophic scales are not very disparate from one another. Detailed observations of the process in the Labrador, Greenland, and Mediterranean Seas are described, which were made possible by new observing technology. When interpreted in terms of underlying dynamics and theory and the context provided by laboratory and numerical experiments of rotating convection, great progress in our description and understanding of the processes at work is being made.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/98RG02739

Open-ocean convection: Observations, theory, and models

A unique open-ocean upwelling exists in the tropical South Indian Ocean (SIO), a result of the negative wind curl between the southeasterly trades and equatorial westerlies, raising the thermocline in the west. Analysis of in situ measurements and a model-assimilated dataset reveals a strong influence of subsurface thermocline variability on sea surface temperature (SST) in this upwelling zone. El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is found to be the dominant forcing for the SIO thermocline variability, with SST variability off Sumatra, Indonesia, also making a significant contribution. When either an El Nino or Sumatra cooling event takes place, anomalous easterlies appear in the equatorial Indian Ocean, forcing a westward-propagating downwelling Rossby wave in the SIO. In phase with this dynamic Rossby wave, there is a pronounced copropagation of SST. Moreover, a positive precipitation anomaly is found over, or just to the south of, the Rossby wave-induced positive SST anomaly, resulting in a cyclonic circulation in the surface wind field that appears to feedback onto the SST anomaly. Finally, this downwelling Rossby wave also increases tropical cyclone activity in the SIO through its SST effect. This coupled Rossby wave thus offers potential predictability for SST and tropical cyclones in the western SIO. These results suggest that models that allow for the existence of upwelling and Rossby wave dynamics will have better seasonal forecasts than ones that use a slab ocean mixed layer. The lagged-correlation analysis shows that SST anomalies off Java, Indonesia, tend to precede those off Sumatra by a season, a time lead that may further increase the Indian Ocean predictability.

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Structure and Mechanisms of South Indian Ocean Climate Variability

The mean horizontal sow Þeld of the tropical Atlantic Ocean is described between 20iN and
20iS from observations and literature results for three layers of the upper ocean, Tropical
Surface Water, Central Water, and Antarctic Intermediate Water. Compared to the subtropical
gyres the tropical circulation shows several zonal current and countercurrent bands of smaller meridional and vertical extent. The wind-driven Ekman layer in the upper tens of meters of the ocean masks at some places the sow structure of the Tropical Surface Water layer as is the case for the Angola Gyre in the eastern tropical South Atlantic. Although there are regions with a strong seasonal cycle of the Tropical Surface Water circulation, such as the North Equatorial Countercurrent, large regions of the tropics do not show a signiÞcant seasonal cycle. In the Central Water layer below, the eastward North and South Equatorial undercurrents appear imbedded in the westward-sowing South Equatorial Current. The Antarcic Intermediate Water layer contains several zonal current bands south of 3iN, but only weak sow exists north of 3iN. The sparse available data suggest that the Equatorial Intermediate Current as well as the Southern and Northern Intermediate Countercurrents extend zonally across the entire equatorial basin. Due to the convergence of northern and southern water masses, the western tropical Atlantic north of the equator is an important site for the mixture of water masses, but more work is needed to better understand the role of the various zonal under- and countercurrents in cross-equatorial water mass transfer. ( 1999 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved

http://www.o3d.org/abracco/Atlantic/AMOC_Ocean/stramma_schott1999.pdf

Friedrich Schott

Papers

The monsoon circulation of the Indian Ocean

Indian Ocean circulation and climate variability

Open-ocean convection: Observations, theory, and models

Structure and Mechanisms of South Indian Ocean Climate Variability

The mean flow field of the tropical Atlantic Ocean