G.Peter Zhang

Bio: G.Peter Zhang is an academic researcher from J. Mack Robinson College of Business. The author has contributed to research in topics: Time series & Linear model. The author has an hindex of 1, co-authored 1 publications receiving 2533 citations.

Modeling Long- and Short-Term Temporal Patterns with Deep Neural Networks

Abstract: Multivariate time series forecasting is an important machine learning problem across many domains, including predictions of solar plant energy output, electricity consumption, and traffic jam situation. Temporal data arise in these real-world applications often involves a mixture of long-term and short-term patterns, for which traditional approaches such as Autoregressive models and Gaussian Process may fail. In this paper, we proposed a novel deep learning framework, namely Long- and Short-term Time-series network (LSTNet), to address this open challenge. LSTNet uses the Convolution Neural Network (CNN) and the Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) to extract short-term local dependency patterns among variables and to discover long-term patterns for time series trends. Furthermore, we leverage traditional autoregressive model to tackle the scale insensitive problem of the neural network model. In our evaluation on real-world data with complex mixtures of repetitive patterns, LSTNet achieved significant performance improvements over that of several state-of-the-art baseline methods. All the data and experiment codes are available online.

A hybrid ARIMA and support vector machines model in stock price forecasting

Abstract: Traditionally, the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model has been one of the most widely used linear models in time series forecasting However, the ARIMA model cannot easily capture the nonlinear patterns Support vector machines (SVMs), a novel neural network technique, have been successfully applied in solving nonlinear regression estimation problems Therefore, this investigation proposes a hybrid methodology that exploits the unique strength of the ARIMA model and the SVMs model in forecasting stock prices problems Real data sets of stock prices were used to examine the forecasting accuracy of the proposed model The results of computational tests are very promising

An artificial neural network (p,d,q) model for timeseries forecasting

Abstract: Artificial neural networks (ANNs) are flexible computing frameworks and universal approximators that can be applied to a wide range of time series forecasting problems with a high degree of accuracy. However, despite all advantages cited for artificial neural networks, their performance for some real time series is not satisfactory. Improving forecasting especially time series forecasting accuracy is an important yet often difficult task facing forecasters. Both theoretical and empirical findings have indicated that integration of different models can be an effective way of improving upon their predictive performance, especially when the models in the ensemble are quite different. In this paper, a novel hybrid model of artificial neural networks is proposed using auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models in order to yield a more accurate forecasting model than artificial neural networks. The empirical results with three well-known real data sets indicate that the proposed model can be an effective way to improve forecasting accuracy achieved by artificial neural networks. Therefore, it can be used as an appropriate alternative model for forecasting task, especially when higher forecasting accuracy is needed.

A novel hybridization of artificial neural networks and ARIMA models for time series forecasting

Abstract: Improving forecasting especially time series forecasting accuracy is an important yet often difficult task facing decision makers in many areas. Both theoretical and empirical findings have indicated that integration of different models can be an effective way of improving upon their predictive performance, especially when the models in combination are quite different. Artificial neural networks (ANNs) are flexible computing frameworks and universal approximators that can be applied to a wide range of forecasting problems with a high degree of accuracy. However, using ANNs to model linear problems have yielded mixed results, and hence; it is not wise to apply ANNs blindly to any type of data. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models are one of the most popular linear models in time series forecasting, which have been widely applied in order to construct more accurate hybrid models during the past decade. Although, hybrid techniques, which decompose a time series into its linear and nonlinear components, have recently been shown to be successful for single models, these models have some disadvantages. In this paper, a novel hybridization of artificial neural networks and ARIMA model is proposed in order to overcome mentioned limitation of ANNs and yield more general and more accurate forecasting model than traditional hybrid ARIMA-ANNs models. In our proposed model, the unique advantages of ARIMA models in linear modeling are used in order to identify and magnify the existing linear structure in data, and then a neural network is used in order to determine a model to capture the underlying data generating process and predict, using preprocessed data. Empirical results with three well-known real data sets indicate that the proposed model can be an effective way to improve forecasting accuracy achieved by traditional hybrid models and also either of the components models used separately.