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Gabriel Cuadra

Bio: Gabriel Cuadra is an academic researcher from Bank of Mexico. The author has contributed to research in topics: Sovereign default & Emerging markets. The author has an hindex of 9, co-authored 20 publications receiving 667 citations.

Papers
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Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, a dynamic stochastic small open economy model of sovereign debt and default is proposed to rationalize the claim that high turnover rates/length of tenure of policymakers and the degree of conflict within a country affects sovereign spreads, debt, and default rates.

267 citations

Posted Content
TL;DR: In this article, all Matlab and C++ programs necessary to produce the results of the article were described and a spreadsheet with Mexican data was also provided, along with a spreadsheet containing Mexican data.
Abstract: All Matlab and C++ programs necessary to produce the results of the article. There is also a Excel spreadsheet with Mexican data.

150 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors developed a quantitative dynamic stochastic small open economy model with incomplete markets, endogenous fiscal policy and sovereign default where public expenditures and tax rates are optimally procyclical.

127 citations

Posted Content
TL;DR: In this article, the role of terms of trade shocks in inducing output fluctuations and countercyclical spreads using a stochastic dynamic general equilibrium model of a small open economy is investigated.
Abstract: Emerging economies tend to experience larger fluctuations in their terms of trade, countercyclical interest rates and more default episodes than developed countries. These structural features might suggest a relevant role for world prices in driving country spreads. This paper studies the role of terms of trade shocks in inducing output fluctuations and countercyclical spreads using a stochastic dynamic general equilibrium model of a small open economy. The model predicts that default incentives and default premia are higher in recessions, as observed in the data. In a quantitative exercise, the model matches various features of emerging economies and can account for the dynamics of default episodes in these markets.

36 citations

Posted Content
TL;DR: The intensification of the global financial crisis, especially as of September 2008, had a significant negative effect on Mexico, which faced two shocks of considerable magnitude as discussed by the authors, which led to a drop in Mexico's exports and a deterioration in its terms of trade.
Abstract: The intensification of the global financial crisis, especially as of September 2008, had a significant negative effect on Mexico, which faced two shocks of considerable magnitude. First, the global economic recession, particularly that of the United States, led to a drop in Mexico’s exports and a deterioration in its terms of trade. Second, the climate of extreme risk aversion among international investors and the global deleveraging process significantly constrained access to international financial markets.

36 citations


Cited by
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01 Feb 1951
TL;DR: The Board of Governors' Semiannual Agenda of Regulations for the period August 1, 1980 through February 1, 1981 as discussed by the authors provides information on those regulatory matters that the Board now has under consideration or anticipates considering over the next six months.
Abstract: Enclosed is a copy of the Board of Governors’ Semiannual Agenda of Regulations for the period August 1, 1980 through February 1, 1981. The Semiannual Agenda provides you with information on those regulatory matters that the Board now has under consideration or anticipates considering over the next six months, and is divided into three parts: (1) regulatory matters that the Board had considered during the previous six months on which final action has been taken; (2) regulatory matters that have been proposed for public comment and that require further Board consideration; and (3) regulatory matters that the Board may consider over the next six months.

1,236 citations

Posted Content
TL;DR: This paper developed a small open economy model to study default risk and its interaction with output, consumption, and foreign debt, which predicts that default incentives and interest rates are higher in recessions, as observed in the data.
Abstract: Recent sovereign defaults in emerging countries are accompanied by interest rate spikes and deep recessions. This paper develops a small open economy model to study default risk and its interaction with output, consumption, and foreign debt. Default probabilities and interest rates depend on incentives for repayment. Default occurs in equilibrium because asset markets are incomplete. The model predicts that default incentives and interest rates are higher in recessions, as observed in the data. The reason is that in a recession, a risk averse borrower finds it more costly to repay non-contingent debt and is more likely to default. In a quantitative exercise the model matches various features of the business cycle in Argentina such as: high volatility of interest rates, higher volatility of consumption relative to output, a negative correlation of interest rates and output and a negative correlation of the trade balance and output. The model can also predict the recent default episode in Argentina.

938 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: This article developed a small open economy model to study default risk and its interaction with output, consumption, and foreign debt, which predicts that default incentives and interest rates are higher in recessions, as observed in the data.
Abstract: Recent sovereign defaults in emerging countries are accompanied by interest rate spikes and deep recessions. This paper develops a small open economy model to study default risk and its interaction with output, consumption, and foreign debt. Default probabilities and interest rates depend on incentives for repayment. Default occurs in equilibrium because asset markets are incomplete. The model predicts that default incentives and interest rates are higher in recessions, as observed in the data. The reason is that in a recession, a risk averse borrower finds it more costly to repay non-contingent debt and is more likely to default. In a quantitative exercise the model matches various features of the business cycle in Argentina such as: high volatility of interest rates, higher volatility of consumption relative to output, a negative correlation of interest rates and output and a negative correlation of the trade balance and output. The model can also predict the recent default episode in Argentina.

783 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, a general equilibrium model of both sovereign default and business cycles is proposed, which explains several features of cyclical dynamics around deraults, countercyclical spreads, high debt ratios and key business cycle moments.
Abstract: Emerging markets business cycle models treat default risk as part of an exogenous interest rate on working capital, while sovereign default models treat income fluctuations as an exogenous endowment process with ad-noc default costs. We propose instead a general equilibrium model of both sovereign default and business cycles. In the model, some imported inputs require working capital financing; default on public and private obligations occurs simultaneously. The model explains several features of cyclical dynamics around default triggers an efficiency loss as these inputs are replaced by imperfect substitutes; and default on public and private obligations occurs simultaneously. The model explains several features of cyclical dynamics around deraults, countercyclical spreads, high debt ratios, and key business cycle moments. This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF. The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate.

464 citations