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George Davey Smith

Other affiliations: Keele University, Western Infirmary, Health Science University  ...read more
Bio: George Davey Smith is an academic researcher from University of Bristol. The author has contributed to research in topics: Population & Mendelian randomization. The author has an hindex of 224, co-authored 2540 publications receiving 248373 citations. Previous affiliations of George Davey Smith include Keele University & Western Infirmary.


Papers
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TL;DR: This work demonstrates a novel extension to the phenome-wide association study approach, using automated screening with genotypic instruments to screen for causal associations amongst any number of phenotypic outcomes, and finds novel evidence of effects of BMI on a global self-worth score.
Abstract: Observational cohort studies can provide rich datasets with a diverse range of phenotypic variables. However, hypothesis-driven epidemiological analyses by definition only test particular hypotheses chosen by researchers. Furthermore, observational analyses may not provide robust evidence of causality, as they are susceptible to confounding, reverse causation and measurement error. Using body mass index (BMI) as an exemplar, we demonstrate a novel extension to the phenome-wide association study (pheWAS) approach, using automated screening with genotypic instruments to screen for causal associations amongst any number of phenotypic outcomes. We used a sample of 8,121 children from the ALSPAC dataset, and tested the linear association of a BMI-associated allele score with 172 phenotypic outcomes (with variable sample sizes). We also performed an instrumental variable analysis to estimate the causal effect of BMI on each phenotype. We found 21 of the 172 outcomes were associated with the allele score at an unadjusted p < 0.05 threshold, and use Bonferroni corrections, permutation testing and estimates of the false discovery rate to consider the strength of results given the number of tests performed. The most strongly associated outcomes included leptin, lipid profile, and blood pressure. We also found novel evidence of effects of BMI on a global self-worth score.

86 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: Maternal smoking during pregnancy was not more strongly associated with offspring ADHD diagnosis than was paternal smoking, grandmother’s smoking when pregnant with mother, or maternal smoking in previous pregnancies, and sibling control analyses showed no association between maternalsmoking in pregnancy and child ADHD symptoms among siblings discordant for maternal smoking.
Abstract: BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: There is a well-documented association between maternal smoking during pregnancy and offspring attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). The degree to which this reflects causal intrauterine effects or is due to unmeasured confounding is not clear. We sought to compare the association between maternal smoking during pregnancy and offspring ADHD with the associations with paternal smoking, grandmother’s smoking when pregnant with mother, and maternal smoking in previous pregnancies. Each of these exposures is expected to be influenced by much of the same confounding factors as maternal smoking during pregnancy, but cannot have direct intrauterine effects. A sibling control design was also used. METHODS: The current study used data from the Norwegian Mother and Child Cohort Study (n > 100 000 children). Mothers and fathers reported on smoking during pregnancy, and mothers reported on smoking in previous pregnancies and their mother’s smoking when pregnant with them. Mothers reported on child ADHD symptoms at 5 years of age. Information about child ADHD diagnosis was obtained from the Norwegian Patient Registry. RESULTS: Maternal smoking during pregnancy was not more strongly associated with offspring ADHD diagnosis than was paternal smoking, grandmother’s smoking when pregnant with mother, or maternal smoking in previous pregnancies. Sibling control analyses showed no association between maternal smoking in pregnancy and child ADHD symptoms among siblings discordant for maternal smoking. CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest that the association between maternal smoking during pregnancy and offspring ADHD is not due to causal intrauterine effects, but reflects unmeasured confounding.

86 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors used experimental probing as well as modelling to understand precipitation under irradiation, corrosion behaviour, and stress corrosion cracking, which can provide guidance for the development of new alloys.

86 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: It is suggested that known common folate-pathway single nucleotide polymorphisms do not have significant effects on susceptibility to prostate cancer.
Abstract: Folate-pathway gene polymorphisms have been implicated in several cancers and investigated inconclusively in relation to prostate cancer. We conducted a systematic review, which identified nine case-control studies (eight included, one excluded). We also included data from four genome-wide association studies and from a case-control study nested within the UK population–based Prostate Testing for Cancer and Treatment study. We investigated by meta-analysis the effects of eight polymorphisms: MTHFR C677T (rs1801133; 12 studies; 10,745 cases; 40,158 controls), MTHFR A1298C (rs1801131; 5 studies; 3,176 cases; 4,829 controls), MTR A2756G (rs1805087; 8 studies; 7,810 cases; 37,543 controls), MTRR A 66G (rs1801394; 4 studies; 3,032 cases; 4,515 controls), MTHFD1 G1958A (rs2236225; 6 studies; 7,493 cases; 36,941 controls), SLC19A1/RFC1 G80A (rs1051266; 4 studies; 6,222 cases; 35,821 controls), SHMT1 C1420T (rs1979277; 2 studies; 2,689 cases; 4,110 controls), and FOLH 1 T1561C (rs202676; 5 studies; 6,314 cases; 35,190 controls). The majority (10 of 13) of eligible studies had 100% Caucasian subjects; only one study had G [random effects pooled odds ratio, 1.06 (1.00-1.12); P = 0.06 ( P = 0.59 for heterogeneity across studies)] and SHMT1 1420C > T [random effects pooled odds ratio, 1.11 (1.00-1.22); P = 0.05 ( P = 0.38 for heterogeneity across studies)]. We found no effect of MTHFR 677C > T or any of the other alleles in dominant, recessive or additive models, or in comparing a/a versus A/A homozygous. Neither did we find any difference in effects on advanced or localized cancers. Our meta-analysis suggests that known common folate-pathway single nucleotide polymorphisms do not have significant effects on susceptibility to prostate cancer.(Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev 2009;18(9):2528–39)

86 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: Evidence is found that being ahead of one’s epigenetic age acceleration is related to developmental characteristics during childhood and adolescence, demonstrating the potential for using AA as a measure of development in future research.
Abstract: Background Statistical models that use an individual's DNA methylation levels to estimate their age (known as epigenetic clocks) have recently been developed, with 96% correlation found between epigenetic and chronological age. We postulate that differences between estimated and actual age [age acceleration (AA)] can be used as a measure of developmental age in early life. Methods We obtained DNA methylation measures at three time points (birth, age 7 years and age 17 years) in 1018 children from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC). Using an online calculator, we estimated epigenetic age, and thus AA, for each child at each time point. We then investigated whether AA was prospectively associated with repeated measures of height, weight, body mass index (BMI), bone mineral density, bone mass, fat mass, lean mass and Tanner stage. Results Positive AA at birth was associated with higher average fat mass [1321 g per year of AA, 95% confidence interval (CI) 386, 2256 g] from birth to adolescence (i.e. from age 0-17 years) and AA at age 7 was associated with higher average height (0.23 cm per year of AA, 95% CI 0.04, 0.41 cm). Conflicting evidence for the role of AA (at birth and in childhood) on changes during development was also found, with higher AA being positively associated with changes in weight, BMI and Tanner stage, but negatively with changes in height and fat mass. Conclusions We found evidence that being ahead of one's epigenetic age acceleration is related to developmental characteristics during childhood and adolescence. This demonstrates the potential for using AA as a measure of development in future research.

86 citations


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Journal ArticleDOI
04 Sep 2003-BMJ
TL;DR: A new quantity is developed, I 2, which the authors believe gives a better measure of the consistency between trials in a meta-analysis, which is susceptible to the number of trials included in the meta- analysis.
Abstract: Cochrane Reviews have recently started including the quantity I 2 to help readers assess the consistency of the results of studies in meta-analyses. What does this new quantity mean, and why is assessment of heterogeneity so important to clinical practice? Systematic reviews and meta-analyses can provide convincing and reliable evidence relevant to many aspects of medicine and health care.1 Their value is especially clear when the results of the studies they include show clinically important effects of similar magnitude. However, the conclusions are less clear when the included studies have differing results. In an attempt to establish whether studies are consistent, reports of meta-analyses commonly present a statistical test of heterogeneity. The test seeks to determine whether there are genuine differences underlying the results of the studies (heterogeneity), or whether the variation in findings is compatible with chance alone (homogeneity). However, the test is susceptible to the number of trials included in the meta-analysis. We have developed a new quantity, I 2, which we believe gives a better measure of the consistency between trials in a meta-analysis. Assessment of the consistency of effects across studies is an essential part of meta-analysis. Unless we know how consistent the results of studies are, we cannot determine the generalisability of the findings of the meta-analysis. Indeed, several hierarchical systems for grading evidence state that the results of studies must be consistent or homogeneous to obtain the highest grading.2–4 Tests for heterogeneity are commonly used to decide on methods for combining studies and for concluding consistency or inconsistency of findings.5 6 But what does the test achieve in practice, and how should the resulting P values be interpreted? A test for heterogeneity examines the null hypothesis that all studies are evaluating the same effect. The usual test statistic …

45,105 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
13 Sep 1997-BMJ
TL;DR: Funnel plots, plots of the trials' effect estimates against sample size, are skewed and asymmetrical in the presence of publication bias and other biases Funnel plot asymmetry, measured by regression analysis, predicts discordance of results when meta-analyses are compared with single large trials.
Abstract: Objective: Funnel plots (plots of effect estimates against sample size) may be useful to detect bias in meta-analyses that were later contradicted by large trials. We examined whether a simple test of asymmetry of funnel plots predicts discordance of results when meta-analyses are compared to large trials, and we assessed the prevalence of bias in published meta-analyses. Design: Medline search to identify pairs consisting of a meta-analysis and a single large trial (concordance of results was assumed if effects were in the same direction and the meta-analytic estimate was within 30% of the trial); analysis of funnel plots from 37 meta-analyses identified from a hand search of four leading general medicine journals 1993-6 and 38 meta-analyses from the second 1996 issue of the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews . Main outcome measure: Degree of funnel plot asymmetry as measured by the intercept from regression of standard normal deviates against precision. Results: In the eight pairs of meta-analysis and large trial that were identified (five from cardiovascular medicine, one from diabetic medicine, one from geriatric medicine, one from perinatal medicine) there were four concordant and four discordant pairs. In all cases discordance was due to meta-analyses showing larger effects. Funnel plot asymmetry was present in three out of four discordant pairs but in none of concordant pairs. In 14 (38%) journal meta-analyses and 5 (13%) Cochrane reviews, funnel plot asymmetry indicated that there was bias. Conclusions: A simple analysis of funnel plots provides a useful test for the likely presence of bias in meta-analyses, but as the capacity to detect bias will be limited when meta-analyses are based on a limited number of small trials the results from such analyses should be treated with considerable caution. Key messages Systematic reviews of randomised trials are the best strategy for appraising evidence; however, the findings of some meta-analyses were later contradicted by large trials Funnel plots, plots of the trials9 effect estimates against sample size, are skewed and asymmetrical in the presence of publication bias and other biases Funnel plot asymmetry, measured by regression analysis, predicts discordance of results when meta-analyses are compared with single large trials Funnel plot asymmetry was found in 38% of meta-analyses published in leading general medicine journals and in 13% of reviews from the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews Critical examination of systematic reviews for publication and related biases should be considered a routine procedure

37,989 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this review the usual methods applied in systematic reviews and meta-analyses are outlined, and the most common procedures for combining studies with binary outcomes are described, illustrating how they can be done using Stata commands.

31,656 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: An Explanation and Elaboration of the PRISMA Statement is presented and updated guidelines for the reporting of systematic reviews and meta-analyses are presented.
Abstract: Systematic reviews and meta-analyses are essential to summarize evidence relating to efficacy and safety of health care interventions accurately and reliably. The clarity and transparency of these reports, however, is not optimal. Poor reporting of systematic reviews diminishes their value to clinicians, policy makers, and other users. Since the development of the QUOROM (QUality Of Reporting Of Meta-analysis) Statement—a reporting guideline published in 1999—there have been several conceptual, methodological, and practical advances regarding the conduct and reporting of systematic reviews and meta-analyses. Also, reviews of published systematic reviews have found that key information about these studies is often poorly reported. Realizing these issues, an international group that included experienced authors and methodologists developed PRISMA (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analyses) as an evolution of the original QUOROM guideline for systematic reviews and meta-analyses of evaluations of health care interventions. The PRISMA Statement consists of a 27-item checklist and a four-phase flow diagram. The checklist includes items deemed essential for transparent reporting of a systematic review. In this Explanation and Elaboration document, we explain the meaning and rationale for each checklist item. For each item, we include an example of good reporting and, where possible, references to relevant empirical studies and methodological literature. The PRISMA Statement, this document, and the associated Web site (http://www.prisma-statement.org/) should be helpful resources to improve reporting of systematic reviews and meta-analyses.

25,711 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
18 Oct 2011-BMJ
TL;DR: The Cochrane Collaboration’s tool for assessing risk of bias aims to make the process clearer and more accurate.
Abstract: Flaws in the design, conduct, analysis, and reporting of randomised trials can cause the effect of an intervention to be underestimated or overestimated. The Cochrane Collaboration’s tool for assessing risk of bias aims to make the process clearer and more accurate

22,227 citations