George Davey Smith

Bio: George Davey Smith is an academic researcher from University of Bristol. The author has contributed to research in topics: Population & Mendelian randomization. The author has an hindex of 224, co-authored 2540 publications receiving 248373 citations. Previous affiliations of George Davey Smith include Keele University & Western Infirmary.

Deprivation and cause specific morbidity: evidence from the Somerset and Avon survey of health

Abstract: Objective: To investigate the association between cause specific morbidity and deprivation in order to inform the debates on inequalities in health and health services resource allocation. Design: Cross sectional postal questionnaire survey ascertaining self reported health status, with validation of a 20% sample through general practitioner and hospital records. Setting: Inner city, urban, and rural areas of Avon and Somerset. Subjects: Stratified random sample of 28080 people aged 35 and over from 40 general practices. Main outcome measures: Age and sex standardised prevalence of various diseases; Townsend deprivation scores were assigned by linking postcodes to enumeration districts. Relative indices of inequality were calculated to estimate the magnitude of the association between socioeconomic position and morbidity. Results: The response rate was 85.3%. The prevalence of most of the conditions rose with increasing material deprivation. The relative index of inequality, for both sexes combined, was greater than 1 for all conditions except diabetes. The conditions most strongly associated with deprivation were diabetic eye disease (relative index of inequality 3.21; 95% confidence interval 1.84 to 5.59), emphysema (2.72; 1.67 to 4.43) and bronchitis (2.27; 1.92 to 2.68). The relative index of inequality was significantly higher in women for asthma (P Conclusions: Material deprivation is strongly linked with many common diseases. NHS resource allocation should be modified to reflect such morbidity differentials. Key messages Key messages The relative index of inequality is a useful tool for analysing self reported morbidity and informing debates on inequalities in health Diabetic eye disease, bronchitis, and emphysema are most closely associated with deprivation Broader socioenvironmental factors may also be implicated and merit increased attention The heavy burden of disease in the most deprived groups, particularly among elderly people, warrants attention in planning of the health service and resource allocation

Genome-wide Association Study of Three-Dimensional Facial Morphology Identifies a Variant in PAX3 Associated with Nasion Position

Abstract: Craniofacial morphology is highly heritable, but little is known about which genetic variants influence normal facial variation in the general population. We aimed to identify genetic variants associated with normal facial variation in a population-based cohort of 15-year-olds from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children. 3D high-resolution images were obtained with two laser scanners, these were merged and aligned, and 22 landmarks were identified and their x, y, and z coordinates used to generate 54 3D distances reflecting facial features. 14 principal components (PCs) were also generated from the landmark locations. We carried out genome-wide association analyses of these distances and PCs in 2,185 adolescents and attempted to replicate any significant associations in a further 1,622 participants. In the discovery analysis no associations were observed with the PCs, but we identified four associations with the distances, and one of these, the association between rs7559271 in PAX3 and the nasion to midendocanthion distance (n-men), was replicated (p = 4 × 10−7). In a combined analysis, each G allele of rs7559271 was associated with an increase in n-men distance of 0.39 mm (p = 4 × 10−16), explaining 1.3% of the variance. Independent associations were observed in both the z (nasion prominence) and y (nasion height) dimensions (p = 9 × 10−9 and p = 9 × 10−10, respectively), suggesting that the locus primarily influences growth in the yz plane. Rare variants in PAX3 are known to cause Waardenburg syndrome, which involves deafness, pigmentary abnormalities, and facial characteristics including a broad nasal bridge. Our findings show that common variants within this gene also influence normal craniofacial development.

Admissions for myocardial infarction and World Cup football: database survey.

Abstract: Objectives: To examine hospital admissions for a range of diagnoses on days surrounding England9s 1998 World Cup football matches. Design: Analysis of hospital admissions obtained from English hospital episode statistics. Setting: England. Participants: Population aged 15-64 years. Main outcome measures: Ratio of number of admissions for acute myocardial infarction, stroke, deliberate self harm, and road traffic injuries on the day of and five days after England9s World Cup matches, compared with admissions at the same time in previous and following years and in the month preceding the tournament. Results: Risk of admission for acute myocardial infarction increased by 25% on 30 June 1998 (the day England lost to Argentina in a penalty shoot-out) and the following two days. No excess admissions occurred for other diagnoses or on the days of the other England matches. The effect was the same when only the two days after the match were treated as the exposed condition. Individual analyses of the day of and the two days after the Argentina match showed 55 extra admissions for myocardial infarctions compared with the number expected. Conclusion: The increase in admissions suggests that myocardial infarction can be triggered by emotional upset, such as watching your football team lose an important match. What is already known on this topic Physical and emotional triggers, such as environmental disasters and vigorous physical exercise, can precipitate acute myocardial infarction An increase in cardiovascular mortality among Dutch men was associated with the 1996 European championship match between the Netherlands and France What this study adds Admissions for myocardial infarction increased on the day England was eliminated from the 1998 World Cup by Argentina in a penalty shoot-out and on the two subsequent days No effect was seen on admissions for other diagnoses or after other matches These data support the hypothesis that intense emotional reactions can trigger myocardial infarction

Association of C-Reactive Protein With Blood Pressure and Hypertension Life Course Confounding and Mendelian Randomization Tests of Causality

Abstract: Background— C-reactive protein (CRP) has repeatedly been associated with blood pressure and prevalent and incident hypertension, but whether a causal link exists is uncertain. Methods and Results— We assessed the cross-sectional relations of CRP to systolic blood pressure, pulse pressure, and prevalent hypertension in a representative sample of >3500 British women aged 60 to 79 years. For both outcomes, substantial associations were observed. However, these associations were greatly attenuated by adjustment for a wide range of confounding factors acting over the life course. We further investigated causality using a Mendelian randomization approach by examining the association of the 1059G/C polymorphism in the human CRP gene with CRP and with blood pressure, pulse pressure, and hypertension. The polymorphism was associated with a robust difference in CRP, and the expectation would be for higher blood pressure and pulse pressure and greater prevalence of hypertension among those carrying the genetic varia...

Advanced paternal age: How old is too old?

Abstract: Average paternal age in the UK is increasing. The public health implications of this trend have not been widely anticipated or debated. This commentary aims to contribute to such a debate. Accumulated chromosomal aberrations and mutations occurring during the maturation of male germ cells are thought to be responsible for the increased risk of certain conditions with older fathers. Growing evidence shows that the offspring of older fathers have reduced fertility and an increased risk of birth defects, some cancers, and schizophrenia. Adverse health outcomes should be weighed up against advantages for children born to older parents, mindful that these societal advantages are likely to change over time.

Measuring inconsistency in meta-analyses

Abstract: Cochrane Reviews have recently started including the quantity I 2 to help readers assess the consistency of the results of studies in meta-analyses. What does this new quantity mean, and why is assessment of heterogeneity so important to clinical practice? Systematic reviews and meta-analyses can provide convincing and reliable evidence relevant to many aspects of medicine and health care.1 Their value is especially clear when the results of the studies they include show clinically important effects of similar magnitude. However, the conclusions are less clear when the included studies have differing results. In an attempt to establish whether studies are consistent, reports of meta-analyses commonly present a statistical test of heterogeneity. The test seeks to determine whether there are genuine differences underlying the results of the studies (heterogeneity), or whether the variation in findings is compatible with chance alone (homogeneity). However, the test is susceptible to the number of trials included in the meta-analysis. We have developed a new quantity, I 2, which we believe gives a better measure of the consistency between trials in a meta-analysis. Assessment of the consistency of effects across studies is an essential part of meta-analysis. Unless we know how consistent the results of studies are, we cannot determine the generalisability of the findings of the meta-analysis. Indeed, several hierarchical systems for grading evidence state that the results of studies must be consistent or homogeneous to obtain the highest grading.2–4 Tests for heterogeneity are commonly used to decide on methods for combining studies and for concluding consistency or inconsistency of findings.5 6 But what does the test achieve in practice, and how should the resulting P values be interpreted? A test for heterogeneity examines the null hypothesis that all studies are evaluating the same effect. The usual test statistic …

Bias in meta-analysis detected by a simple, graphical test

Abstract: Objective: Funnel plots (plots of effect estimates against sample size) may be useful to detect bias in meta-analyses that were later contradicted by large trials. We examined whether a simple test of asymmetry of funnel plots predicts discordance of results when meta-analyses are compared to large trials, and we assessed the prevalence of bias in published meta-analyses. Design: Medline search to identify pairs consisting of a meta-analysis and a single large trial (concordance of results was assumed if effects were in the same direction and the meta-analytic estimate was within 30% of the trial); analysis of funnel plots from 37 meta-analyses identified from a hand search of four leading general medicine journals 1993-6 and 38 meta-analyses from the second 1996 issue of the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews . Main outcome measure: Degree of funnel plot asymmetry as measured by the intercept from regression of standard normal deviates against precision. Results: In the eight pairs of meta-analysis and large trial that were identified (five from cardiovascular medicine, one from diabetic medicine, one from geriatric medicine, one from perinatal medicine) there were four concordant and four discordant pairs. In all cases discordance was due to meta-analyses showing larger effects. Funnel plot asymmetry was present in three out of four discordant pairs but in none of concordant pairs. In 14 (38%) journal meta-analyses and 5 (13%) Cochrane reviews, funnel plot asymmetry indicated that there was bias. Conclusions: A simple analysis of funnel plots provides a useful test for the likely presence of bias in meta-analyses, but as the capacity to detect bias will be limited when meta-analyses are based on a limited number of small trials the results from such analyses should be treated with considerable caution. Key messages Systematic reviews of randomised trials are the best strategy for appraising evidence; however, the findings of some meta-analyses were later contradicted by large trials Funnel plots, plots of the trials9 effect estimates against sample size, are skewed and asymmetrical in the presence of publication bias and other biases Funnel plot asymmetry, measured by regression analysis, predicts discordance of results when meta-analyses are compared with single large trials Funnel plot asymmetry was found in 38% of meta-analyses published in leading general medicine journals and in 13% of reviews from the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews Critical examination of systematic reviews for publication and related biases should be considered a routine procedure

The PRISMA Statement for Reporting Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses of Studies That Evaluate Health Care Interventions: Explanation and Elaboration

Abstract: Systematic reviews and meta-analyses are essential to summarize evidence relating to efficacy and safety of health care interventions accurately and reliably. The clarity and transparency of these reports, however, is not optimal. Poor reporting of systematic reviews diminishes their value to clinicians, policy makers, and other users. Since the development of the QUOROM (QUality Of Reporting Of Meta-analysis) Statement—a reporting guideline published in 1999—there have been several conceptual, methodological, and practical advances regarding the conduct and reporting of systematic reviews and meta-analyses. Also, reviews of published systematic reviews have found that key information about these studies is often poorly reported. Realizing these issues, an international group that included experienced authors and methodologists developed PRISMA (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analyses) as an evolution of the original QUOROM guideline for systematic reviews and meta-analyses of evaluations of health care interventions. The PRISMA Statement consists of a 27-item checklist and a four-phase flow diagram. The checklist includes items deemed essential for transparent reporting of a systematic review. In this Explanation and Elaboration document, we explain the meaning and rationale for each checklist item. For each item, we include an example of good reporting and, where possible, references to relevant empirical studies and methodological literature. The PRISMA Statement, this document, and the associated Web site (http://www.prisma-statement.org/) should be helpful resources to improve reporting of systematic reviews and meta-analyses.

The Cochrane Collaboration’s tool for assessing risk of bias in randomised trials

Abstract: Flaws in the design, conduct, analysis, and reporting of randomised trials can cause the effect of an intervention to be underestimated or overestimated. The Cochrane Collaboration’s tool for assessing risk of bias aims to make the process clearer and more accurate