Preface to the Princeton Landmarks in Biology Edition vii Preface xi Symbols Used xiii 1. The Importance of Islands 3 2. Area and Number of Speicies 8 3. Further Explanations of the Area-Diversity Pattern 19 4. The Strategy of Colonization 68 5. Invasibility and the Variable Niche 94 6. Stepping Stones and Biotic Exchange 123 7. Evolutionary Changes Following Colonization 145 8. Prospect 181 Glossary 185 References 193 Index 201

The Theory of Island Biogeography

Causal attribution of recent biological trends to climate change is complicated because non-climatic influences dominate local, short-term biological changes. Any underlying signal from climate change is likely to be revealed by analyses that seek systematic trends across diverse species and geographic regions; however, debates within the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reveal several definitions of a 'systematic trend'. Here, we explore these differences, apply diverse analyses to more than 1,700 species, and show that recent biological trends match climate change predictions. Global meta-analyses documented significant range shifts averaging 6.1 km per decade towards the poles (or metres per decade upward), and significant mean advancement of spring events by 2.3 days per decade. We define a diagnostic fingerprint of temporal and spatial 'sign-switching' responses uniquely predicted by twentieth century climate trends. Among appropriate long-term/large-scale/multi-species data sets, this diagnostic fingerprint was found for 279 species. This suite of analyses generates 'very high confidence' (as laid down by the IPCC) that climate change is already affecting living systems.

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A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems

There is now ample evidence of the ecological impacts of recent climate change, from polar terrestrial to tropical marine environments. The responses of both flora and fauna span an array of ecosystems and organizational hierarchies, from the species to the community levels. Despite continued uncertainty as to community and ecosystem trajectories under global change, our review exposes a coherent pattern of ecological change across systems. Although we are only at an early stage in the projected trends of global warming, ecological responses to recent climate change are already clearly visible.

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Ecological responses to recent climate change.

Ecological changes in the phenology and distribution of plants and animals are occurring in all well-studied marine, freshwater, and terrestrial groups These observed changes are heavily biased in the directions predicted from global warming and have been linked to local or regional climate change through correlations between climate and biological variation, field and laboratory experiments, and physiological research Range-restricted species, particularly polar and mountaintop species, show severe range contractions and have been the first groups in which entire species have gone extinct due to recent climate change Tropical coral reefs and amphibians have been most negatively affected Predator-prey and plant-insect interactions have been disrupted when interacting species have responded differently to warming Evolutionary adaptations to warmer conditions have occurred in the interiors of species’ ranges, and resource use and dispersal have evolved rapidly at expanding range margins Observed genetic shifts modulate local effects of climate change, but there is little evidence that they will mitigate negative effects at the species level

https://www.fws.gov/southwest/es/documents/R2ES/LitCited/LPC_2012/Parmesan_2006.pdf

Ecological and Evolutionary Responses to Recent Climate Change

https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00457602/document

A global overview of drought and heat-induced tree mortality reveals emerging climate change risks for forests

Questions: The 1990s were the warmest decade since the beginning of climate measurements. Based on almost 100 years of monitoring in the Swiss Alps, we asked (1) whether the extraordinary warm climatic conditions of the 1990s are reflected in the floristic composition of Alpine summit vegetation and, if so, (2) what the magnitude and rate of species change has been over the last few decades compared to the documented increase in species richness within the first 80 years of the 20th century. Location: Ten high mountain summits of the Bernina area in the southeastern Swiss Alps. Methods: Resurvey of the floristic composition of the uppermost altitudinal 10 m of these summits, applying the same methodology of former two surveys (1905 and 1985) and recording the presence of all vascular plant species. Results: Whereas the continued increase in plant species richness of high alpine summit vegetation is confirmed, our results also suggest an acceleration of the trend in the upward shift of alpine plants. Conclusion: Vegetation change in the southeastern Swiss Alps has accelerated since 1985, consistent with a climate change explanation.

Trends in the upward shift of alpine plants

Climate is a major determinant for the phenology, physiology, distribution and interactions of plants. The world's recent climate has shown a substantial increase in average temperature which is changing these processes in a perceptible way. The following review compiles and discusses studies reporting recently observed changes in the behaviour, ranges and interactions of species which are thought to be associated with climate change. The multitude of recently published studies providing evidence for the ecological impacts of climate change on many different continents strongly suggests that the last 30 years of warmer temperatures have had a substantial influence on both seasonal patterns, and altitudinal and poleward shifts in vegetation. Common features of change, but also some discrepancies in the response of plants to climate change, are discussed, as well as implications for biodiversity, higher level impacts on community structure and trophic interactions, and some ecosystem consequences.

Plants in a warmer world

Recently, there has been increasing evidence of species' range shifts due to changes in climate. Whereas most of these shifts relate ground truth biogeographic data to a general warming trend in regional or global climate data, we here present a reanalysis of both biogeographic and bioclimatic data of equal spatio-temporal resolution, covering a time span of more than 50 years. Our results reveal a coherent and synchronous shift in both species' distribution and climate. They show not only a shift in the northern margin of a species, which is in concert with gradually increasing winter temperatures in the area, they also confirm the simulated species' distribution changes expected from a bioclimatic model under the recent, relatively moderate climate change.

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An ecological 'footprint' of climate change

Adapted behaviour and shifting ranges of species -- a result of recent climate warming? G.-R. Walther. Terrestrial ecosystem responses to climate changes in the Antarctic P. Convey. Climate change and ice breeding pinnipeds B.P. Kelly. Detection of range shifts: General methodological issues and case studies using butterflies C. Parmesan. Climate and recent range changes in butterflies J.K. Hill, et al. Expansion of Mediterranean Odonata in Germany and Europe -- consequences of climatic changes J. Ott. Phytophenological trends in different seasons, regions and altitudes in Switzerland C. Defila, B. Clot. Plant phenological changes A. Menzel, N. Estrella. High summits of the Alps in a changing climate H. Pauli, et al. Evergreen broad-leaved species as indicators for climate change G.-R. Walther, et al. The expansion of thermophilic plants in the Iberian Peninsula as a sign of climatic change E.S. Vesperinas, et al. Climate change and coastal flora D. Metzing, A. Gerlach. Sizing the Impact: Coral reef ecosystems as early casualties of climate change O. Hoegh-Guldberg. Fingerprints of climate changes on the photosynthetic apparatus' behaviour, monitored by the JIP-test M. Tsimilli-Michael, R. Strasser. Did recent climatic shifts affect productivity of grass-dominated vegetation in southern Switzerland? A. Stampfli. Responses of some Austrian glacier foreland plants to experimentally changed microclimatic conditions B. Erschbamer. Reliability and effectiveness of Ellenberg's indices in checking flora and vegetation changes induced by climatic variations S. Pignatti, et al. Fingerprints of climate change -- concluding remarks Ch. Korner, G.-R. Walther. Index.

Gian-Reto Walther

Papers

Ecological responses to recent climate change.

Trends in the upward shift of alpine plants

Plants in a warmer world

An ecological 'footprint' of climate change

"Fingerprints" of climate change : adapted behaviour and shifting species ranges