Glenn Marion

Bio: Glenn Marion is an academic researcher from University of Edinburgh. The author has contributed to research in topics: Population & Markov chain Monte Carlo. The author has an hindex of 25, co-authored 95 publications receiving 2606 citations. Previous affiliations of Glenn Marion include University of Strathclyde.

ALARM: Assessing LArge-scale environmental Risks for biodiversity with tested Methods

Abstract: The EU-funded research project ALARM will develop and test methods and protocols for the assessment of large-scale environmental risks in order to minimise negative human impacts. Research focuses on the assessment and forecast of changes in biodiversity and in the structure, function, and dynamics of ecosystems. This includes the relationships between society, the economy and biodiversity.

Predicting impacts of climate change on Fasciola hepatica risk.

Abstract: Fasciola hepatica (liver fluke) is a physically and economically devastating parasitic trematode whose rise in recent years has been attributed to climate change. Climate has an impact on the free-living stages of the parasite and its intermediate host Lymnaea truncatula, with the interactions between rainfall and temperature having the greatest influence on transmission efficacy. There have been a number of short term climate driven forecasts developed to predict the following season's infection risk, with the Ollerenshaw index being the most widely used. Through the synthesis of a modified Ollerenshaw index with the UKCP09 fine scale climate projection data we have developed long term seasonal risk forecasts up to 2070 at a 25 km square resolution. Additionally UKCIP gridded datasets at 5 km square resolution from 1970-2006 were used to highlight the climate-driven increase to date. The maps show unprecedented levels of future fasciolosis risk in parts of the UK, with risk of serious epidemics in Wales by 2050. The seasonal risk maps demonstrate the possible change in the timing of disease outbreaks due to increased risk from overwintering larvae. Despite an overall long term increase in all regions of the UK, spatio-temporal variation in risk levels is expected. Infection risk will reduce in some areas and fluctuate greatly in others with a predicted decrease in summer infection for parts of the UK due to restricted water availability. This forecast is the first approximation of the potential impacts of climate change on fasciolosis risk in the UK. It can be used as a basis for indicating where active disease surveillance should be targeted and where the development of improved mitigation or adaptation measures is likely to bring the greatest benefits.

Species' range: adaptation in space and time.

Abstract: Populations living in a spatially and temporally changing environment can adapt to the changing optimum and/or migrate toward favorable habitats. Here we extend previous analyses with a static optimum to allow the environment to vary in time as well as in space. The model follows both population dynamics and the trait mean under stabilizing selection, and the outcomes can be understood by comparing the loads due to genetic variance, dispersal, and temporal change. With fixed genetic variance, we obtain two regimes: (1) adaptation that is uniform along the environmental gradient and that responds to the moving optimum as expected for panmictic populations and when the spatial gradient is sufficiently steep, and (2) a population with limited range that adapts more slowly than the environmental optimum changes in both time and space; the population therefore becomes locally extinct and migrates toward suitable habitat. We also use a population‐genetic model with many loci to allow genetic variance ...

The Theory of Island Biogeography

Abstract: Preface to the Princeton Landmarks in Biology Edition vii Preface xi Symbols Used xiii 1. The Importance of Islands 3 2. Area and Number of Speicies 8 3. Further Explanations of the Area-Diversity Pattern 19 4. The Strategy of Colonization 68 5. Invasibility and the Variable Niche 94 6. Stepping Stones and Biotic Exchange 123 7. Evolutionary Changes Following Colonization 145 8. Prospect 181 Glossary 185 References 193 Index 201

Modern Applied Statistics With S

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Stochastic Processes in Physics and Chemistry

Abstract: N G van Kampen 1981 Amsterdam: North-Holland xiv + 419 pp price Dfl 180 This is a book which, at a lower price, could be expected to become an essential part of the library of every physical scientist concerned with problems involving fluctuations and stochastic processes, as well as those who just enjoy a beautifully written book. It provides an extensive graduate-level introduction which is clear, cautious, interesting and readable.

Parallel Declines in Pollinators and Insect-Pollinated Plants in Britain and the Netherlands

Abstract: Despite widespread concern about declines in pollination services, little is known about the patterns of change in most pollinator assemblages. By studying bee and hoverfly assemblages in Britain and the Netherlands, we found evidence of declines (pre-versus post-1980) in local bee diversity in both countries; however, divergent trends were observed in hoverflies. Depending on the assemblage and location, pollinator declines were most frequent in habitat and flower specialists, in univoltine species, and/or in nonmigrants. In conjunction with this evidence, outcrossing plant species that are reliant on the declining pollinators have themselves declined relative to other plant species. Taken together, these findings strongly suggest a causal connection between local extinctions of functionally linked plant and pollinator species.