Showing papers by "Goodarz Danaei published in 2018"

Contributions of mean and shape of blood pressure distribution to worldwide trends and variations in raised blood pressure: a pooled analysis of 1018 population-based measurement studies with 88.6 million participants

Abstract: Background: Change in the prevalence of raised blood pressure could be due to both shifts in the entire distribution of blood pressure (representing the combined effects of public health interventions and secular trends) and changes in its high-blood-pressure tail (representing successful clinical interventions to control blood pressure in the hypertensive population). Our aim was to quantify the contributions of these two phenomena to the worldwide trends in the prevalence of raised blood pressure. Methods: We pooled 1018 population-based studies with blood pressure measurements on 88.6 million participants from 1985 to 2016. We first calculated mean systolic blood pressure (SBP), mean diastolic blood pressure (DBP) and prevalence of raised blood pressure by sex and 10-year age group from 20-29 years to 70-79 years in each study, taking into account complex survey design and survey sample weights, where relevant. We used a linear mixed effect model to quantify the association between (probittransformed) prevalence of raised blood pressure and age-group- and sex-specific mean blood pressure. We calculated the contributions of change in mean SBP and DBP, and of change in the prevalence-mean association, to the change in prevalence of raised blood pressure. Results: In 2005-16, at the same level of population mean SBP and DBP, men and women in South Asia and in Central Asia, the Middle East and North Africa would have the highest prevalence of raised blood pressure, and men and women in the highincome Asia Pacific and high-income Western regions would have the lowest. In most region-sex-age groups where the prevalence of raised blood pressure declined, one half or more of the decline was due to the decline in mean blood pressure. Where prevalence of raised blood pressure has increased, the change was entirely driven by increasing mean blood pressure, offset partly by the change in the prevalence-mean association. Conclusions: Change in mean blood pressure is the main driver of the worldwide change in the prevalence of raised blood pressure, but change in the high-blood-pressure tail of the distribution has also contributed to the change in prevalence, especially in older age groups.

Geographic and sociodemographic variation of cardiovascular disease risk in India: A cross-sectional study of 797,540 adults.

Abstract: Background Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of mortality in India. Yet, evidence on the CVD risk of India’s population is limited. To inform health system planning and effective targeting of interventions, this study aimed to determine how CVD risk—and the factors that determine risk—varies among states in India, by rural–urban location, and by individual-level sociodemographic characteristics. Methods and findings We used 2 large household surveys carried out between 2012 and 2014, which included a sample of 797,540 adults aged 30 to 74 years across India. The main outcome variable was the predicted 10-year risk of a CVD event as calculated with the Framingham risk score. The Harvard–NHANES, Globorisk, and WHO–ISH scores were used in secondary analyses. CVD risk and the prevalence of CVD risk factors were examined by state, rural–urban residence, age, sex, household wealth, and education. Mean CVD risk varied from 13.2% (95% CI: 12.7%–13.6%) in Jharkhand to 19.5% (95% CI: 19.1%–19.9%) in Kerala. CVD risk tended to be highest in North, Northeast, and South India. District-level wealth quintile (based on median household wealth in a district) and urbanization were both positively associated with CVD risk. Similarly, household wealth quintile and living in an urban area were positively associated with CVD risk among both sexes, but the associations were stronger among women than men. Smoking was more prevalent in poorer household wealth quintiles and in rural areas, whereas body mass index, high blood glucose, and systolic blood pressure were positively associated with household wealth and urban location. Men had a substantially higher (age-standardized) smoking prevalence (26.2% [95% CI: 25.7%–26.7%] versus 1.8% [95% CI: 1.7%–1.9%]) and mean systolic blood pressure (126.9 mm Hg [95% CI: 126.7–127.1] versus 124.3 mm Hg [95% CI: 124.1–124.5]) than women. Important limitations of this analysis are the high proportion of missing values (27.1%) in the main outcome variable, assessment of diabetes through a 1-time capillary blood glucose measurement, and the inability to exclude participants with a current or previous CVD event. Conclusions This study identified substantial variation in CVD risk among states and sociodemographic groups in India—findings that can facilitate effective targeting of CVD programs to those most at risk and most in need. While the CVD risk scores used have not been validated in South Asian populations, the patterns of variation in CVD risk among the Indian population were similar across all 4 risk scoring systems.

Intimate Partner Violence, Depression, and Child Growth and Development

Abstract: BACKGROUND: Evidence on the relationship between maternal depression and exposure to intimate partner violence (IPV) with child physical growth and development is equivocal. Our aim in the current study is to examine these relationships among women and their children in Tanzania. METHODS: The Bayley Scales of Infant Development and anthropometric measures were used to assess children 18 to 36 months of age (n = 1031). Maternal exposure to IPV and depression were assessed using the Tanzania Demographic and Health Survey questionnaire and the Patient Health Questionnaire-9, respectively. We used linear regression models to calculate standardized mean differences (SMDs) for developmental outcomes and generalized linear models to estimate the associations with nutritional status. RESULTS: Mild depressive symptoms in mothers (Patient Health Questionnaire-9 ≥5) and exposure to physical and sexual IPV were associated with lower SMDs for motor skills (−0.14 [P = .023] and −0.23 [P CONCLUSIONS: This study reveals that maternal depressive symptoms and IPV are associated with adverse child nutritional and developmental outcomes. Further research is needed to develop programs to address IPV and depression among women and enhance the growth and development of their children.

Validity of an FFQ to measure nutrient and food intakes in Tanzania.

Abstract: Objective FFQ are often used to estimate food and nutrient intakes to rank individuals by their level of intake. We evaluated the relative validity of a semi-quantitative FFQ created for use in Tanzania by comparing it with two 24 h diet recalls. Design We measured relative validity of the FFQ with deattenuated energy-adjusted rank correlations for nutrients, deattenuated rank correlations for food groups, and performed a cross-classification analysis of energy-adjusted nutrient quartiles using percentage of agreement and Bland-Altman analysis. Setting Interviews were conducted in 2014 in participants' homes in Ukonga, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. Subjects We surveyed 317 adults aged 40 years or older from the general public. Results Deattenuated energy-adjusted rank correlation coefficients of nutrients ranged from -0·03 for riboflavin to 0·41 for percentage of energy from carbohydrates, with a median correlation of 0·21. Coefficients for food groups ranged from 0·00 for root vegetables to 0·51 for alcohol, with a median of 0·35. Relative to the average of the two 24 h diet recalls, the FFQ overestimated energy intake and intakes of all nutrients and food groups, other than tea, with ratios among nutrients ranging from 1·34 for SFA to 7·08 for vitamin A; and among food groups from 0·92 for tea to 9·00 for fruit. The percentage of participants classified into the same nutrient intake quartile ranged from 23 % for SFA to 32 % for both niacin and pantothenic acid, with a median of 28 %. Conclusions The FFQ performed moderately well in urban Tanzanian adults.

An evaluation of longitudinal changes in serum uric acid levels and associated risk of cardio-metabolic events and renal function decline in gout.

Abstract: Objective Gout patients have a high burden of co-morbid conditions including diabetes mellitus (DM), chronic kidney disease (CKD), and cardiovascular disease (CVD). We sought to evaluate the association between changes in serum uric acid (SUA) levels over time and the risk of incident DM, CVD, and renal function decline in gout patients. Methods An observational cohort study was conducted among enrollees of private health insurance programs in the US between 2004 and 2015. Gout patients were included on the index date of a SUA measurement ≥6.8 mg/dl. The exposure of interest was cumulative change in SUA levels from baseline. Hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for incident DM, incident CVD, and renal function decline (≥30% reduction in glomerular filtration rate) were derived using marginal structural models with stabilized inverse probability weights accounting for baseline confounders (age, gender, co-morbidities, co-medications) and time-varying confounders (serum creatinine, blood urea nitrogen, glycated hemoglobin). Results Among 26,341 patients with gout, the average age was 62, 75% were men, and the median baseline SUA was 8.6 mg/dl (interquartile range 7.7 to 9.5). The incidence rates/100 person-years (95% CI) were 1.63 (1.51–1.75) for DM, 0.77 (0.70–0.84) for CVD, and 4.32 (4.14–4.49) for renal function decline. The adjusted HR (95% CI) per 3 mg/dl reduction in SUA, corresponding on average to achieving the target level of <6 mg/dl in this population, was 1.04 (0.92–1.17) for DM, 1.07 (0.89–1.29) for CVD, and 0.85 (0.78–0.92) for renal function decline. Conclusions Reduction in SUA in patients with gout may be associated with a reduced risk of renal function decline, but not with DM or CVD.

Long-term moderately elevated LDL-cholesterol and blood pressure and risk of coronary heart disease.

Abstract: Background Harmful effects of long-term exposure to moderately elevated low-density lipoprotein (LDL)-cholesterol and blood pressure on coronary heart disease (CHD) have not been rigorously examined. We estimated the risk of CHD under long-term exposure to moderately elevated LDL-cholesterol and blood pressure compared with the risk under shorter exposures to higher levels of the same risk factors. Methods Observational study using data from 2,714 adults in Framingham Offspring Study who were free of existing cardiovascular disease and aged <70 years at baseline (1987–1991). We used the parametric g-formula to estimate 16-year CHD risk under different levels and durations of exposure to LDL-cholesterol (low: <130 mg/dL, moderate: 130 to <160 mg/dL, high 160 to <190 mg/dL, and very high: ≥190 mg/dL) and systolic blood pressure (low: <120 mmHg, prehypertension: 120 to <140 mmHg, stage 1 hypertension: 140 to <160 mmHg, and stage 2 hypertension: ≥160 mmHg). Results The estimated 16-year CHD risk under exposure to low LDL was 8.2% (95% CI = 7.0–9.6). The 16-year CHD risk under exposure to moderate LDL was 8.9% (7.8–10.1) which was similar to CHD risk under 8 years of low LDL followed by 8 years of high LDL at 9.0% (7.7–10.3); and 12 years of low LDL followed by 4 years of very high LDL at 8.8% (7.6–10.1). The results for blood pressure were similar. Conclusions Long-term exposure to moderate levels of LDL-cholesterol and blood pressure had a similar impact on CHD risk as shorter exposures to levels considered ‘high’ per clinical guidelines.

Treatment gaps and potential cardiovascular risk reduction from expanded statin use in the US and England.

Abstract: Background The updated national guidelines for cardiovascular risk assessment and lipid modification in the UK and US expand the indications for statin therapy in primary prevention to adults with moderate risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) but many adults at high CVD risk remain untreated in both countries. We set out to identify treatment gaps in English and American adults at moderate and high risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD), and to estimate the number of CVD events that would be prevented from expanding statin therapy to those who are currently untreated. Methods We used nationally representative samples of 10,375 English adults and 7,687 US adults aged 40–75 years and free of existing CVD from the Health Survey for England 2009–2013, and the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2007–2012 in the US. We used the risk algorithms and the risk thresholds for statin therapy recommended by each country’s national guideline to categorize the survey participants into moderate-risk (≥10% to <20% 10-year risk of CVD in England and ≥7.5% to <20% risk in the US) or high-risk (≥20%risk) and simulated the number of events that would be prevented from expansion of statin therapy to those currently untreated. Results Close to half of adults at high CVD risk in England (46.0%) and the US (49.7%) were not receiving statins. Expanding statin use to 1.45 million high-risk adults in England would save 101,000 (95% CI = 81,000–120,000) CVD events in the next 10 years compared with 128,000 (103,000–154,000) CVD events that would be prevented from expanding treatment to 3.64 million untreated moderate-risk adults. In the US, expanding statin use to 5.27 million untreated high-risk adults would save 384,000 (305,000–461,000) CVD events over 10 years compared with 616,000 (493,000–738,000) CVD events that would be prevented from treating 20.29 million untreated moderate-risk adults. Conclusions In both England and the US, expanding statin therapy to untreated moderate-risk adults would prevent a comparable number of events as expanding statin use to a much smaller number of currently untreated high-risk adults. A large potential for CVD prevention remains from improving coverage of statin therapy among high-risk adults.

Hypothetical interventions to prevent stroke: an application of the parametric g-formula to a healthy middle-aged population.

Abstract: The effects of interventions on multiple lifestyle and metabolic risk factors, initiated in midlife or later in a healthy population, on the long-term risk of first-ever stroke is not known. A particular methodological challenge in observational studies is to estimate the unbiased effect of a time-varying exposure in presence of time-varying confounders, if those confounders are affected by prior exposure. In such cases, the parametric g-formula can be applied to estimate an unbiased effect. We applied the parametric g-formula to estimate the 18-years (1994–2012) cumulative stroke risk under different scenarios of hypothetical interventions on levels of blood pressure, cholesterol, weight, physical activity, smoking and alcohol intake; and compared these to the observed scenario, to calculate the population risk ratios and risk differences. Among 14,796 eligible participants in the prospective, population-based Tromso study (baseline mean age 46.1 years, 51% women), the observed 18-years stroke risk was 5.9%. A feasible joint hypothetical intervention on six lifestyle and metabolic risk factors would reduce the 18-year stroke risk by 32% (95% confidence interval 16, 44). A combination of more intensive interventions reduced the estimated 18-years stroke risk by 64% (95% confidence interval 40, 80). Blood pressure reduction and quitting smoking significantly reduced the risk when applied separately.

Designing programs to improve diets for maternal and child health: estimating costs and potential dietary impacts of nutrition-sensitive programs in Ethiopia, Nigeria, and India.

Abstract: Improving maternal and child nutrition in resource-poor settings requires effective use of limited resources, but priority-setting is constrained by limited information about program costs and impacts, especially for interventions designed to improve diet quality. This study utilized a mixed methods approach to identify, describe and estimate the potential costs and impacts on child dietary intake of 12 nutrition-sensitive programs in Ethiopia, Nigeria and India. These potential interventions included conditional livestock and cash transfers, media and education, complementary food processing and sales, household production and food pricing programs. Components and costs of each program were identified through a novel participatory process of expert regional consultation followed by validation and calibration from literature searches and comparison with actual budgets. Impacts on child diets were determined by estimating of the magnitude of economic mechanisms for dietary change, comprehensive reviews of evaluations and effectiveness for similar programs, and demographic data on each country. Across the 12 programs, total cost per child reached (net present value, purchasing power parity adjusted) ranged very widely: from 0.58 to 2650 USD/year among five programs in Ethiopia; 2.62 to 1919 USD/year among four programs in Nigeria; and 27 to 586 USD/year among three programs in India. When impacts were assessed, the largest dietary improvements were for iron and zinc intakes from a complementary food production program in Ethiopia (increases of 17.7 mg iron/child/day and 7.4 mg zinc/child/day), vitamin A intake from a household animal and horticulture production program in Nigeria (335 RAE/child/day), and animal protein intake from a complementary food processing program in Nigeria (20.0 g/child/day). These results add substantial value to the limited literature on the costs and dietary impacts of nutrition-sensitive interventions targeting children in resource-limited settings, informing policy discussions and serving as critical inputs to future cost-effectiveness analyses focusing on disease outcomes.

Priority interventions to improve maternal and child diets in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia.

Abstract: Nutrition-sensitive interventions to improve overall diet quality are increasingly needed to improve maternal and child health. This study demonstrates feasibility of a structured process to leverage local expertise in formulating programmes tailored for current circumstances in South Asia and Africa. We assembled 41 stakeholders in 2 regional workshops and followed a prespecified protocol to elicit programme designs listing the human and other resources required, the intervention's mechanism for impact on diets, target foods and nutrients, target populations, and contact information for partners needed to implement the desired programme. Via this protocol, participants described 48 distinct interventions, which we then compared against international recommendations and global goals. Local stakeholders' priorities focused on postharvest food systems to improve access to nutrient-dense products (75% of the 48 programmes) and on production of animal sourced foods (58%), as well as education and social marketing (23%) and direct transfers to meet food needs (12.5%). Each programme included an average of 3.2 distinct elements aligned with those recommended by United Nations system agencies in the Framework for Action produced by the Second International Conference on Nutrition in 2014 and the Compendium of Actions for Nutrition developed for the Renewed Efforts Against Child Hunger initiative in 2016. Our results demonstrate that a participatory process can help local experts identify their own priorities for future investments, as a first step in a novel process of rigorous, transparent, and independent priority setting to improve diets among those at greatest risk of undernutrition.

Validation of Cardiovascular Risk Scores in the Southern Cone of Latin America: Which Predicts Better?

Abstract: Background: Inaccurate estimates of demographic cardiovascular risk may lead to an inadequate management of preventive medical interventions such as the use of statins. Objectives: The aim of this study was to evaluate the external validity of cardiovascular risk equations in the general population of the Southern Cone of Latin America. Methods: Equations including variables evaluated in the CESCAS cohort study and that estimate overall cardiovascular mortality (CUORE, Framingham, Globorisk and Pooled Cohort Studies) were assessed. For each equation, an independent analysis was performed taking into account the cardiovascular events originally considered. Discrimination of each equation was evaluated through C-statistic and Harrell’s C-index. To assess calibration, a graph was built for each equation with the proportion of observed events vs. the proportion of estimated events by risk quintiles and the β slope of the resulting linear regression was calculated. Sensitivity and specificity were determined for the detection of people at high cardiovascular risk. Results: The median follow-up time of the cohort at the time of the analysis was 2.2 years, with an interquartile range of 1.9 to 2.8 years. Sixty cardiovascular events were incorporated into the analysis. All C-statistic and Harrell’s-C index values were greater than 0.7. The value of the β slope farthest from 1 was that of the Pooled Cohort Studies score. Conclusions: Although the external validation parameters evaluated were similar, CUORE, Globorisk and the Framingham equations showed the best global performance for cardiovascular risk estimation in our population.