Showing papers by "Goodarz Danaei published in 2019"

Rising rural body-mass index is the main driver of the global obesity epidemic in adults

Abstract: Body-mass index (BMI) has increased steadily in most countries in parallel with a rise in the proportion of the population who live in cities1,2. This has led to a widely reported view that urbanization is one of the most important drivers of the global rise in obesity3,4,5,6. Here we use 2,009 population-based studies, with measurements of height and weight in more than 112 million adults, to report national, regional and global trends in mean BMI segregated by place of residence (a rural or urban area) from 1985 to 2017. We show that, contrary to the dominant paradigm, more than 55% of the global rise in mean BMI from 1985 to 2017—and more than 80% in some low- and middle-income regions—was due to increases in BMI in rural areas. This large contribution stems from the fact that, with the exception of women in sub-Saharan Africa, BMI is increasing at the same rate or faster in rural areas than in cities in low- and middle-income regions. These trends have in turn resulted in a closing—and in some countries reversal—of the gap in BMI between urban and rural areas in low- and middle-income countries, especially for women. In high-income and industrialized countries, we noted a persistently higher rural BMI, especially for women. There is an urgent need for an integrated approach to rural nutrition that enhances financial and physical access to healthy foods, to avoid replacing the rural undernutrition disadvantage in poor countries with a more general malnutrition disadvantage that entails excessive consumption of low-quality calories.

Particulate matter air pollution and national and county life expectancy loss in the USA: A spatiotemporal analysis.

Abstract: Background Exposure to fine particulate matter pollution (PM2.5) is hazardous to health. Our aim was to directly estimate the health and longevity impacts of current PM2.5 concentrations and the benefits of reductions from 1999 to 2015, nationally and at county level, for the entire contemporary population of the contiguous United States. Methods and findings We used vital registration and population data with information on sex, age, cause of death, and county of residence. We used four Bayesian spatiotemporal models, with different adjustments for other determinants of mortality, to directly estimate mortality and life expectancy loss due to current PM2.5 pollution and the benefits of reductions since 1999, nationally and by county. The covariates included in the adjusted models were per capita income; percentage of population whose family income is below the poverty threshold, who are of Black or African American race, who have graduated from high school, who live in urban areas, and who are unemployed; cumulative smoking; and mean temperature and relative humidity. In the main model, which adjusted for these covariates and for unobserved county characteristics through the use of county-specific random intercepts, PM2.5 pollution in excess of the lowest observed concentration (2.8 μg/m3) was responsible for an estimated 15,612 deaths (95% credible interval 13,248–17,945) in females and 14,757 deaths (12,617–16,919) in males. These deaths would lower national life expectancy by an estimated 0.15 years (0.13–0.17) for women and 0.13 years (0.11–0.15) for men. The life expectancy loss due to PM2.5 was largest around Los Angeles and in some southern states such as Arkansas, Oklahoma, and Alabama. At any PM2.5 concentration, life expectancy loss was, on average, larger in counties with lower income and higher poverty rate than in wealthier counties. Reductions in PM2.5 since 1999 have lowered mortality in all but 14 counties where PM2.5 increased slightly. The main limitation of our study, similar to other observational studies, is that it is not guaranteed for the observed associations to be causal. We did not have annual county-level data on other important determinants of mortality, such as healthcare access and quality and diet, but these factors were adjusted for with use of county-specific random intercepts. Conclusions According to our estimates, recent reductions in particulate matter pollution in the USA have resulted in public health benefits. Nonetheless, we estimate that current concentrations are associated with mortality impacts and loss of life expectancy, with larger impacts in counties with lower income and higher poverty rate.

Three Public Health Interventions Could Save 94 Million Lives in 25 Years

Abstract: Background: Preventable noncommunicable diseases, mostly cardiovascular diseases, are responsible for 38 million deaths annually. A few well-documented interventions have the potential to prevent m...

Outcomes of Bariatric Surgery Versus Medical Management for Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus: a Meta-Analysis of Randomized Controlled Trials

Abstract: Bariatric surgery improves type 2 diabetes (T2D) in obese patients. The sustainability of these effects and the long-term results have been under question. To compare bariatric surgery versus medical management (MM) for T2D based on a meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) with 2 years of follow-up. Seven RCTs with at least 2-year follow-up were identified. The primary endpoint was remission of T2D (full or partial). Four hundred sixty-three patients with T2D and body mass index > 25 kg/m2 were evaluated. After 2 years, T2D remission was observed in 138 of 263 patients (52.5%) with bariatric surgery compared to seven of 200 patients (3.5%) with MM (risk ratio (RR) = 10, 95% CI 5.5–17.9, p < 0.001). Subgroup analysis of the Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (RYGB) showed a significant effect size at 2 years in favor of RYGB over MM for a higher decrease of HbA1C (0.9 percentage points, 95% CI 0.6–1.1, p < 0.001), decrease of fasting blood glucose (35.3 mg/dl, 95% CI 13.3–57.3, p = 0.002), increase of high-density lipoprotein (HDL) (12.2 mg/dl, 95% CI 7.6–16.8, p < 0.001), and decrease of triglycerides (32.4 mg/dl, 95% CI 4.5–60.3, p = 0.02). Four studies followed patients up to 5 years and showed 62 of 225 patients (27.5%) with remission after surgery, compared to six of 156 patients (3.8%) with MM (RR = 6, 95% CI 2.7–13, p < 0.001). This meta-analysis shows a superior and persistent effect of bariatric surgery versus MM for inducement of remission of T2D. This benefit of bariatric surgery was significant at 2 years and superior to MM even after 5 years. Compared with MM, patients with RYGB had better glycemic control and improved levels of HDL and triglycerides.

Early life risk factors of motor, cognitive and language development: a pooled analysis of studies from low/middle-income countries

Abstract: Objective To determine the magnitude of relationships of early life factors with child development in low/middle-income countries (LMICs). Design Meta-analyses of standardised mean differences (SMDs) estimated from published and unpublished data. Data sources We searched Medline, bibliographies of key articles and reviews, and grey literature to identify studies from LMICs that collected data on early life exposures and child development. The most recent search was done on 4 November 2014. We then invited the first authors of the publications and investigators of unpublished studies to participate in the study. Eligibility criteria for selecting studies Studies that assessed at least one domain of child development in at least 100 children under 7 years of age and collected at least one early life factor of interest were included in the study. Analyses Linear regression models were used to assess SMDs in child development by parental and child factors within each study. We then produced pooled estimates across studies using random effects meta-analyses. Results We retrieved data from 21 studies including 20 882 children across 13 LMICs, to assess the associations of exposure to 14 major risk factors with child development. Children of mothers with secondary schooling had 0.14 SD (95% CI 0.05 to 0.25) higher cognitive scores compared with children whose mothers had primary education. Preterm birth was associated with 0.14 SD (–0.24 to –0.05) and 0.23 SD (–0.42 to –0.03) reductions in cognitive and motor scores, respectively. Maternal short stature, anaemia in infancy and lack of access to clean water and sanitation had significant negative associations with cognitive and motor development with effects ranging from −0.18 to −0.10 SDs. Conclusions Differential parental, environmental and nutritional factors contribute to disparities in child development across LMICs. Targeting these factors from prepregnancy through childhood may improve health and development of children.

Lifetime economic impact of the burden of childhood stunting attributable to maternal psychosocial risk factors in 137 low/middle-income countries.

Abstract: Introduction The first 1000 days of life is a period of great potential and vulnerability. In particular, physical growth of children can be affected by the lack of access to basic needs as well as psychosocial factors, such as maternal depression. The objectives of the present study are to: (1) quantify the burden of childhood stunting in low/middle-income countries attributable to psychosocial risk factors; and (2) estimate the related lifetime economic costs. Methods A comparative risk assessment analysis was performed with data from 137 low/middle-income countries throughout Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, North Africa and the Middle East, and sub-Saharan Africa. The proportion of stunting prevalence, defined as Results Approximately 7.2 million cases of stunting in low/middle-income countries were attributable to psychosocial factors. The leading risk factor was maternal depression with 3.2 million cases attributable. Maternal depression also demonstrated the greatest economic cost at $14.5 billion, followed by low maternal education ($10.0 billion) and IPV ($8.5 billion). The joint cost of these risk factors was $29.3 billion per birth cohort. Conclusion The cost of neglecting these psychosocial risk factors is significant. Improving access to formal secondary school education for girls may offset the risk of maternal depression, IPV and orphanhood. Focusing on maternal depression may play a key role in reducing the burden of stunting. Overall, addressing psychosocial factors among perinatal women can have a significant impact on child growth and well-being in the developing world.

Cardiovascular Disease Prognostic Models in Latin America and the Caribbean: A Systematic Review

Abstract: Background: Cardiovascular prognostic models guide treatment allocation and support clinical decisions. Whether there are valid models for Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) populations is unknown. Objective: This study sought to identify and critically appraise cardiovascular prognostic models developed, tested, or recalibrated in LAC populations. Methods: The systematic review followed the CHARMS (CHecklist for critical Appraisal and data extraction for systematic Reviews of prediction Modelling Studies) framework (PROSPERO [International Prospective Register of Systemic Reviews]: CRD42018096553). Reports were included if they followed a prospective design and presented a multivariable prognostic model; reports were excluded if they studied symptomatic individuals or patients. The following search engines were used: EMBASE, MEDLINE, Scopus, SciELO, and LILACS. Risk of bias assessment was conducted with PROBAST (Prediction model Risk Of Bias ASsessment Tool). No quantitative summary was conducted due to large heterogeneity. Results: From 2,506 search results, 8 studies (N = 130,482 participants) were included for qualitative synthesis. We could not identify any cardiovascular prognostic model developed for LAC populations; reviewed reports evaluated available models or conducted a recalibration analysis. Only 1 study included a Caribbean population (Puerto Rico); 3 studies were retrieved from Chile; 2 from Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, and Uruguay; and 1 from Mexico. Four studies included population-based samples, and the other 4 included people affiliated to a health facility (e.g., prevention clinics). Most studied participants were older than 50 years, and there were more women in 5 reports. The Framingham model was assessed 6 times, and the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association pooled equation was assessed twice. Across the prognostic models assessed, calibration varied widely from one population to another, showing great overestimation particularly in some subgroups (e.g., highest risk). Discrimination (e.g., C-statistic) was acceptable for most models; for Framingham it ranged from 0.66 to 0.76. The American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association pooled equation showed the best discrimination (0.78). That there were few outcome events was the most important methodological limitation of the identified studies. Conclusions: No cardiovascular prognostic models have been developed in LAC, hampering key evidence to inform public health and clinical practice. Validation studies need to improve methodological issues. Highlights There has never been a cardiovascular prognostic model developed in LAC. Few studies have tested available models, but they have methodological limitations. Discrimination estimates were acceptable across studies. Calibration estimates showed important overestimation across studies. Many countries in Latin America do not have tools for cardiovascular prevention.

Guidance for a causal comparative effectiveness analysis emulating a target trial based on big real world evidence: when to start statin treatment.

Abstract: Aim: The aim of this project is to describe a causal (counterfactual) approach for analyzing when to start statin treatment to prevent cardiovascular disease using real-world evidence. Methods: We use directed acyclic graphs to operationalize and visualize the causal research question considering selection bias, potential time-independent and time-dependent confounding. We provide a study protocol following the 'target trial' approach and describe the data structure needed for the causal assessment. Conclusion: The study protocol can be applied to real-world data, in general. However, the structure and quality of the database play an essential role for the validity of the results, and database-specific potential for bias needs to be explicitly considered.

Training opportunities for noncommunicable diseases research in Latin America: A scoping review

Abstract: Objective To identify gaps in postgraduate training and options for building capacity in noncommunicable disease (NCDs) research in Latin America. Methods This was a scoping review of postgraduate opportunities in NCDs at top universities in Latin America and of training grants awarded by international funding bodies. Three global university rankings were considered-the QS Ranking, the Shanghai Ranking, and the Times Ranking. Latin American universities appearing in at least two of these were selected. University websites were searched for current graduate programs in biostatistics, epidemiology, global health, health economics, and public health. Information was extracted, summarized, and evaluated to identify any programs focused on NCDs. In addition, seven international funding bodies' websites were searched for training grants. Results In all, 33 universities offering 72 postgraduate programs met the inclusion criteria. One of these programs was exclusively devoted to NCD, and 12 offered NCDs as a dissertation research topic. Only two training grants were awarded to a Latin American institution for NCD capacity building. There are few NCD research training programs in Latin America and only one program exclusively focused on NCDs. Conclusion There seem to be few NCD-specific research training programs in Latin America. Leveraging existing programs and expanding those with a focus on NCDs could help enhance NCD research capacity in the region. These initiatives should be supported by international funding agencies through more funding opportunities.