scispace - formally typeset
Search or ask a question
Author

Goodarz Danaei

Bio: Goodarz Danaei is an academic researcher from Harvard University. The author has contributed to research in topics: Population & Risk factor. The author has an hindex of 59, co-authored 173 publications receiving 55837 citations. Previous affiliations of Goodarz Danaei include Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation & Imperial College London.


Papers
More filters
Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: Developing systematic and comparable methods to quantitatively assess the impact of suboptimal dietary habits on CVD, diabetes and cancer burdens globally and in 21 world regions will allow assessment of the global impact of specific dietary factors on chronic disease mortality.
Abstract: Global burdens of cardiovascular disease (CVD), diabetes and cancer are on the rise. Little quantitative data are available on the global impact of diet on these conditions. The objective of this study was to develop systematic and comparable methods to quantitatively assess the impact of suboptimal dietary habits on CVD, diabetes and cancer burdens globally and in 21 world regions. Using a comparative risk assessment framework, we developed methods to establish for selected dietary risk factors the effect sizes of probable or convincing causal diet–disease relationships, the alternative minimum-risk exposure distributions and the exposure distributions. These inputs, together with disease-specific mortality rates, allow computation of the numbers of events attributable to each dietary factor. Using World Health Organization and similar evidence criteria for convincing/probable causal effects, we identified 14 potential diet–disease relationships. Effect sizes and ranges of uncertainty will be derived from systematic reviews and meta-analyses of trials or high-quality observational studies. Alternative minimum-risk distributions were identified based on amounts corresponding to the lowest disease rates in populations. Optimal and alternative definitions for each exposure were established based on the data used to quantify harmful or protective effects. We developed methods for identifying and obtaining data from nationally representative surveys. A ranking scale was developed to assess survey quality and validity of dietary assessment methods. Multi-level hierarchical models will be developed to impute missing data. These new methods will allow, for the first time, assessment of the global impact of specific dietary factors on chronic disease mortality. Such global assessment is not only possible but is also imperative for priority setting and policy making.

106 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: Iran is now a country with a population exceeding 80 million, mainly inhabiting urban regions, and has an increasing burden of non-communicable diseases, including cardiovascular diseases, hypertension, diabetes, malignancies, mental disorders, substance abuse, and road injuries.

96 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors outline potentially major selection bias issues in rheumatic disease research and suggest approaches which could be used to help limit the impact of these biases on future research.
Abstract: The validity of research into risk factors for the development of rheumatic conditions and their sequelae can be threatened by selection bias. In this Review, the authors outline potentially major selection bias issues in rheumatic disease research and suggest approaches which could be used to help limit the impact of these biases on future research. The identification of modifiable risk factors for the development of rheumatic conditions and their sequelae is crucial for reducing the substantial worldwide burden of these diseases. However, the validity of such research can be threatened by sources of bias, including confounding, measurement and selection biases. In this Review, we discuss potentially major issues of selection bias—a type of bias frequently overshadowed by other bias and feasibility issues, despite being equally or more problematic—in key areas of rheumatic disease research. We present index event bias (a type of selection bias) as one of the potentially unifying reasons behind some unexpected findings, such as the 'risk factor paradox'—a phenomenon exemplified by the discrepant effects of certain risk factors on the development versus the progression of osteoarthritis (OA) or rheumatoid arthritis (RA). We also discuss potential selection biases owing to differential loss to follow-up in RA and OA research, as well as those due to the depletion of susceptibles (prevalent user bias) and immortal time bias. The lesson remains that selection bias can be ubiquitous and, therefore, has the potential to lead the field astray. Thus, we conclude with suggestions to help investigators avoid such issues and limit the impact on future rheumatology research.

90 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the effects of smoking and high systolic blood pressure (SBP), fasting plasma glucose (FPG), total cholesterol (TC), and high body mass index (BMI) on mortality and life expectancy, nationally and sub-national, using representative data and comparable methods.
Abstract: Background Mortality from cardiovascular and other chronic diseases has increased in Iran. Our aim was to estimate the effects of smoking and high systolic blood pressure (SBP), fasting plasma glucose (FPG), total cholesterol (TC), and high body mass index (BMI) on mortality and life expectancy, nationally and subnationally, using representative data and comparable methods.

90 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: It is estimated that current concentrations of PM2.5 are associated with mortality impacts and loss of life expectancy, with larger impacts in counties with lower income and higher poverty rate than in wealthier counties.
Abstract: Background Exposure to fine particulate matter pollution (PM2.5) is hazardous to health. Our aim was to directly estimate the health and longevity impacts of current PM2.5 concentrations and the benefits of reductions from 1999 to 2015, nationally and at county level, for the entire contemporary population of the contiguous United States. Methods and findings We used vital registration and population data with information on sex, age, cause of death, and county of residence. We used four Bayesian spatiotemporal models, with different adjustments for other determinants of mortality, to directly estimate mortality and life expectancy loss due to current PM2.5 pollution and the benefits of reductions since 1999, nationally and by county. The covariates included in the adjusted models were per capita income; percentage of population whose family income is below the poverty threshold, who are of Black or African American race, who have graduated from high school, who live in urban areas, and who are unemployed; cumulative smoking; and mean temperature and relative humidity. In the main model, which adjusted for these covariates and for unobserved county characteristics through the use of county-specific random intercepts, PM2.5 pollution in excess of the lowest observed concentration (2.8 μg/m3) was responsible for an estimated 15,612 deaths (95% credible interval 13,248–17,945) in females and 14,757 deaths (12,617–16,919) in males. These deaths would lower national life expectancy by an estimated 0.15 years (0.13–0.17) for women and 0.13 years (0.11–0.15) for men. The life expectancy loss due to PM2.5 was largest around Los Angeles and in some southern states such as Arkansas, Oklahoma, and Alabama. At any PM2.5 concentration, life expectancy loss was, on average, larger in counties with lower income and higher poverty rate than in wealthier counties. Reductions in PM2.5 since 1999 have lowered mortality in all but 14 counties where PM2.5 increased slightly. The main limitation of our study, similar to other observational studies, is that it is not guaranteed for the observed associations to be causal. We did not have annual county-level data on other important determinants of mortality, such as healthcare access and quality and diet, but these factors were adjusted for with use of county-specific random intercepts. Conclusions According to our estimates, recent reductions in particulate matter pollution in the USA have resulted in public health benefits. Nonetheless, we estimate that current concentrations are associated with mortality impacts and loss of life expectancy, with larger impacts in counties with lower income and higher poverty rate.

89 citations


Cited by
More filters
Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: A substantial proportion of the worldwide burden of cancer could be prevented through the application of existing cancer control knowledge and by implementing programs for tobacco control, vaccination, and early detection and treatment, as well as public health campaigns promoting physical activity and a healthier dietary intake.
Abstract: The global burden of cancer continues to increase largely because of the aging and growth of the world population alongside an increasing adoption of cancer-causing behaviors, particularly smoking, in economically developing countries. Based on the GLOBOCAN 2008 estimates, about 12.7 million cancer cases and 7.6 million cancer deaths are estimated to have occurred in 2008; of these, 56% of the cases and 64% of the deaths occurred in the economically developing world. Breast cancer is the most frequently diagnosed cancer and the leading cause of cancer death among females, accounting for 23% of the total cancer cases and 14% of the cancer deaths. Lung cancer is the leading cancer site in males, comprising 17% of the total new cancer cases and 23% of the total cancer deaths. Breast cancer is now also the leading cause of cancer death among females in economically developing countries, a shift from the previous decade during which the most common cause of cancer death was cervical cancer. Further, the mortality burden for lung cancer among females in developing countries is as high as the burden for cervical cancer, with each accounting for 11% of the total female cancer deaths. Although overall cancer incidence rates in the developing world are half those seen in the developed world in both sexes, the overall cancer mortality rates are generally similar. Cancer survival tends to be poorer in developing countries, most likely because of a combination of a late stage at diagnosis and limited access to timely and standard treatment. A substantial proportion of the worldwide burden of cancer could be prevented through the application of existing cancer control knowledge and by implementing programs for tobacco control, vaccination (for liver and cervical cancers), and early detection and treatment, as well as public health campaigns promoting physical activity and a healthier dietary intake. Clinicians, public health professionals, and policy makers can play an active role in accelerating the application of such interventions globally.

52,293 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: A substantial portion of cancer cases and deaths could be prevented by broadly applying effective prevention measures, such as tobacco control, vaccination, and the use of early detection tests.
Abstract: Cancer constitutes an enormous burden on society in more and less economically developed countries alike. The occurrence of cancer is increasing because of the growth and aging of the population, as well as an increasing prevalence of established risk factors such as smoking, overweight, physical inactivity, and changing reproductive patterns associated with urbanization and economic development. Based on GLOBOCAN estimates, about 14.1 million new cancer cases and 8.2 million deaths occurred in 2012 worldwide. Over the years, the burden has shifted to less developed countries, which currently account for about 57% of cases and 65% of cancer deaths worldwide. Lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer death among males in both more and less developed countries, and has surpassed breast cancer as the leading cause of cancer death among females in more developed countries; breast cancer remains the leading cause of cancer death among females in less developed countries. Other leading causes of cancer death in more developed countries include colorectal cancer among males and females and prostate cancer among males. In less developed countries, liver and stomach cancer among males and cervical cancer among females are also leading causes of cancer death. Although incidence rates for all cancers combined are nearly twice as high in more developed than in less developed countries in both males and females, mortality rates are only 8% to 15% higher in more developed countries. This disparity reflects regional differences in the mix of cancers, which is affected by risk factors and detection practices, and/or the availability of treatment. Risk factors associated with the leading causes of cancer death include tobacco use (lung, colorectal, stomach, and liver cancer), overweight/obesity and physical inactivity (breast and colorectal cancer), and infection (liver, stomach, and cervical cancer). A substantial portion of cancer cases and deaths could be prevented by broadly applying effective prevention measures, such as tobacco control, vaccination, and the use of early detection tests.

23,203 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
Rafael Lozano1, Mohsen Naghavi1, Kyle J Foreman2, Stephen S Lim1  +192 moreInstitutions (95)
TL;DR: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2010 aimed to estimate annual deaths for the world and 21 regions between 1980 and 2010 for 235 causes, with uncertainty intervals (UIs), separately by age and sex, using the Cause of Death Ensemble model.

11,809 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
Stephen S Lim1, Theo Vos, Abraham D. Flaxman1, Goodarz Danaei2  +207 moreInstitutions (92)
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors estimated deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs; sum of years lived with disability [YLD] and years of life lost [YLL]) attributable to the independent effects of 67 risk factors and clusters of risk factors for 21 regions in 1990 and 2010.

9,324 citations